Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Winter 2020-2021


ORH_wxman
 Share

Recommended Posts

I think the only group preferring '11-'12, would be the south coast into interior srn CT. They got the Halloween snow and also that weenie deformation band on 1/19 or whenever that day was. The south coast just got the deformation snows in January of that year, but shit...that was 10-12". I couldn't buy 5" that year in one storm.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No arg from me... 

I said just yesterday or the day before whenever that was that this might be a good year for NJ Model lows ... Miller B's fits in with those.   

We just gotta make sure the ambient flow doesn't end up with too may hypsometric lines ... because that is synonymous with huge wind as a base-state. That's bad for S/W's because their local wind maxes get absorbed -

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can actually see that in the 'art' of weather graphics when peering over the 500 mb v-    ...The positive vorticities swaths begin to curve or bow such that the southern ends lag back SW... That's absorption happening.  Here's an example of the resulting positive sloping... random interval off the 12z GFS to illustrate the point:

pslope500.thumb.jpg.c126fd634c3374c99a04c489718a463b.jpg 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Guys are setting the bar low for this winter conversing whether you would take a 11-12 or 19-20 esque-winter lol. 

Everyone seems to be pretty pessimistic or at least quite cautious. That means it will probably be a blockbuster, lol.

 

Not surprising though, recency bias is a huge factor in expectations. When we were churning out big snowstorms like sneakers at a Nike sweatshop, everyone always expected the next winter to be huge. Everyone also expected that we'd keep seeing the big -AO/NAO patterns we saw 2007-2013 too. Even blaming climate change on it (recall the "low sea ice = -AO" studies that were coming out?)...now that we have been dealing with a relentless +AO recently, the narrative and expectations have flipped.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2010-2011 teleconnections are going to be pretty similar this year and I recall Lowell & Blue Hill (two stations I closely follow) did well that year.

EDIT: And when I say teleconnections I mean ENSO phase, QBO, PDO, AMO which I quickly looked up. I know there's more to it obviously but just quick glance that's what I'm gathering.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Everyone seems to be pretty pessimistic or at least quite cautious. That means it will probably be a blockbuster, lol.

 

Not surprising though, recency bias is a huge factor in expectations. When we were churning out big snowstorms like sneakers at a Nike sweatshop, everyone always expected the next winter to be huge. Everyone also expected that we'd keep seeing the big -AO/NAO patterns we saw 2007-2013 too. Even blaming climate change on it (recall the "low sea ice = -AO" studies that were coming out?)...now that we have been dealing with a relentless +AO recently, the narrative and expectations have flipped.

It's an interesting turn of phrase 'recency bias' 

I know you don't mean anything by it ...but 'bias' tends to imply an attitude against something, particularly in the parlance of an internet "water cooler" social media diversion - haha... but yeah ...

I like to rely upon trend quite a bit.  Trend awareness is equally fair as a word choice, and is actually a wise factor in any deterministic aspect of weather forecast - range and domain notwithstanding.  

Particularly, when a given trend can be rooted ...or at in the least suspected as being, causally linked to x-y-z ..etc.   In this case?  I think there are reasons - valid - to assess the trend of recent winters may repeat?    And I mean to put the "?" on that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't prefer 11-12, but last year was right up there locally. I mean after that December event, we had the advisory deal mid month...but nothing after that. Some minor thing in January, and that was it. There was nothing to look forward to. And then as if 2020 wasn't starting out bad enough, mother nature decided one more bend over and have a frigid April and May. 

Maybe COVID is influencing it, but I am happy to look past winter of '19-'20. 

Yes, seeing legit snowflakes on the coastal plain in May was the ultimate insult after last winter.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I think being "quite cautious" is a fair assumption, especially since past couple winters for E MA have suckeddddd but most of you on here are smart enough to know that can all turn on a dime.

Georgey Pourgey...haha   Nah, nothing to do with last two winters. I secretly have a bit of a good feeling...but there is no science in that..lol. Just maybe playing the odds a bit. I'm hoping we can end the stretch of black holes near Greenland for once. At least maybe have it average more neutral. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Georgey Pourgey...haha   Nah, nothing to do with last two winters. I secretly have a bit of a good feeling...but there is no science in that..lol. Just maybe playing the odds a bit. I'm hoping we can end the stretch of black holes near Greenland for once. At least maybe have it average more neutral. 

Can't resist this winter disco man I gotta get my fix somewhere! Haha. Don't miss the cold/snow one bit (unless it's a crippling blizzard) but I love forecasting it just as much as anyone else even though I'm in TX now lol. I feel good about this winter up there too I think at least an "average" winter is on tap.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That screams SWFE and Miller B East to me.

 

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like a milder version of 1968-69...how much milder and how much snow dependent upon NAO.

Jeff must be just naked and sprawled out on a bear skin rug in the woods, oiling himself.

Oh boy, oh boy oh boy!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ha. I’m not that shook. I just think we are in a bad phase for winters. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a good season here or there though but the general idea of struggling to produce big snows will be the prevailing theme. Years ago, a Jimmy fart in Harwich after a steak dinner would spin up a low along the gulf stream and the atmosphere squeezes out a foot without blinking. Maybe it’s Tippy’s HC fetish that is dominating our winters, I don’t know. I think when we look back 10 years from now we will remember the late 2010’s and early 2020’s as a pretty crappy period akin to the 80s or late 90s. It’s actually pretty normal to go through bad stretches so it’s nothing anomolous, I’m used to it growing up in CNJ. Maybe this winter will be solid but I’m not overly excited when many pros talk about an early start with an early finish with a strengthening La Nina while the big climo models show AN temps with BN precip. However, if Mother Earth drops a 20 burger on me this season after a 10 year drought...then I’m good. 

We’ll see but my expectations are very low this pre season. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Uh- oh. Hope everyone is prepping for rat  of rats 

 

Lol..you can believe that nonsense if you want. Or stir the pot like you’re doing also. But all that doesn’t mean jack.  Cuz last year they(Euro etc) all showed great news, and we were supposedly in for what looked to be a Fabo winter....ya how’d that work out for us...?
 

 So go and buy in(stir the pot) all you want, I’ll stay cautiously optimistic for a normal winter season after last years total dud. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..you can believe that nonsense if you want. Or stir the pot like you’re doing also. But all that doesn’t mean jack.  Cuz last year they(Euro etc) all showed great news, and we were supposedly in for what looked to be a Fabo winter....ya how’d that work out for us...?
 

 So go and buy in(stir the pot) all you want, I’ll stay cautiously optimistic for a normal winter season after last years total dud. 

Nothing showed that last winter. Either you were cocked or your monitor was upside down when you were reading winter outlooks 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Jamstec has in October 2020 what it forecast in October 2016 for 2016-17, and that ended up a cold NW winter, which I take as a decent sign for my outlook. I did look - the Oct correlation for the NAO v. DJF disappears even on the "after El Nino years" thing I did before since 1990 or 2000, although it is less than 10 years since 2000 and not a good way to use correlations at that point. Once the coming cold dumps into the NW, this October will probably to look a lot like the composite of some of the prior Octobers following two El Ninos ahead of a cold ENSO winter. 

April/May are actually better at predicting the NAO in winter than October is, despite how far out they are. We had a -NAO in April this year for the first time in forever, so that makes it unlikely to me that recent years would be super similar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...