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Cristobal Remnants June 9-10


Hoosier
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15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Not in this sub, but out in Nebraska winds are gusting to 70mph at North Platte.  Also 71mph in southeast CO at Springfield.  

Yeah the N/NW gusts behind the plains low are more impressive than the Cristobal winds right now.  Must be great mixing conditions over there

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No 10% on new day 1 and they also trimmed away the slight some in IL.

Quote

 
   
..WESTERN KY/IL/IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD JUST TO  
THE WEST OF SAINT LOUIS, AND WILL CONTINUE TOWARD WI/UPPER MI  
OVERNIGHT. EAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER, LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS ARE  
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY, AND WILL REACH IL  
THIS AFTERNOON. A BELT OF 40-50 KT LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AROUND THE  
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT  
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE  
DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE RICHER MOISTURE  
PLUME WHERE CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD, WHICH WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE  
FORMATION OF MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION THAT COULD EVOLVE INTO SMALL  
SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  
   
 

 

spccoday1.categorical.latest.png

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Enhanced area added for tomorrow for parts of MI/OH

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2020  
 
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z  

 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM OHIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN  
INTO PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA, WEST VIRGINIA, AND NEW YORK WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
AS REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL -- PROGGED TO BE CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN AT  
THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO, A  
NEGATIVELY-TILTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT  
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT  
LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE FLANKED BY RIDGES ON EITHER  
SIDE, ONE OVER THE WEST AND A SECOND OVER THE EAST THAT WILL BE  
GRADUALLY SHUNTED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END  
OF THE PERIOD.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL ARE PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS A  
SYNOPTIC LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH TIME, IN RESPONSE TO THE  
ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGHING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO  
SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL  
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY, AND THEN SHOULD CROSS THE  
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
   
..LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO VICINITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST
 
 
AS THE REMNANT LOW WHICH WAS CRISTOBAL SHIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD  
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, A COMPACT LOW/VORT MAX -- WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE  
UPPER TROUGHING -- IS FORECAST TO MAKE AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY  
TILTED NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.  
 
AS THIS SYSTEM -- AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT -- ADVANCE ACROSS LAKE  
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO THROUGH THE DAY,  
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FORCING  
FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY  
AFTERNOON. STRONG -- BUT SOMEWHAT  
UNIDIRECTIONAL/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS PROGGED  
ACROSS THE REGION, YIELDING SHEAR THAT WILL FAVOR  
FAST-MOVING/ROTATING STORMS AND/OR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS, AND  
ATTENDANT RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE, AS WILL A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH  
TIME, AN INCREASINGLY LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED, AS STORMS  
SHIFT EAST TO LAKES HURON AND ERIE, AND ACROSS OHIO INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS, WITH AN EVENTUAL WANE IN WIND RISK EXPECTED WITH TIME.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH, STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON  
ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AS THE AIRMASS DIURNALLY DESTABILIZES. WEAKER  
SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS LESSER SEVERE RISK,  
THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH  
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

 

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spccoday2.tornado.latest.png

spccoday2.wind.latest.png

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For as meteorologically unusual an event as this is (apparently the last time the center of a remnant TC circulation crossed into WI was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, and that only clipped the SE corner), it appears the impacts won't be all that memorable. We're not under any wind headlines, not even an advisory. Just looks like a run-of-the-mill inclement weather day.

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It is pouring here.  Radar shows a clear nnw/sse line where the heavy rain is west and much less east.  Cedar Rapids appears to be far enough west to remain in the heavy rain.

Good thing this is fairly progressive, as your area would really be in trouble otherwise.  Still looks like an easy 2-4"+ rain there.  

Picked up a quick 0.18" so far with this first band.  You can definitely tell PWs are through the roof.  Raining in sheets, with 25-30mph east-southeasterlies.  All we're missing are some palm trees lol.

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25 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It is pouring here.  Radar shows a clear nnw/sse line where the heavy rain is west and lighter east.  Cedar Rapids appears to be far enough west to remain in the heavy rain.

glad things worked out

 

have managed a good deal of sun here so far, so expecting some garden variety+ this evening

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Do you think it would be worth trying to chase anything over central/eastern Michigan tomorrow?  Storms will be moving so fast and the cloud bases will be low.  I worry it may not be worth the anxiety, but then I will be disappointed if I miss something good.  Scattered wet-microburst type wind damage looks a lot more likely than good supercell structure with tornado potential honestly.

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