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Cristobal Remnants June 9-10


Hoosier
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The track of the Cristobal comes right through here the way it's looking.  Looks like the heaviest rains miss to the west (which is good for this area), and the strongest winds miss to the east.  Still a pretty cool system to watch though.  We should have an over/under for strongest wind gust for a location that looks like it could be in for the highest winds, like ORD or something.

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23 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This is such a bizarre setup for June.  

Trying to recall a tropical system moving north from the Gulf getting picked up and. moving out quickly in June like it was September ....

They usually stall in the deep south somewhere in the summer

 

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The way I see it, there are a couple of regimes that are more favored to mix down some higher gusts on Tuesday around here.  

The first one is early afternoon, when daytime heating/low level lapse rates look maximized prior to more extensive clouds/precip and the stronger wind fields start to move in with the approach of Cristobal.  The second regime is with any heavier showers/storms.

Not that it won't be windy at other times, but not sure how well we will be able to mix by later afternoon/evening outside of the showers and storms.  If we are able to mix well on a more consistent basis, look out.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

d99e32f04aafdeaa3f5d92950f74bd64.jpg


.

Cristobal was actually a tad deeper than the 00z run, but lower gusts on this run.

That is sort of a clown product anyway, even though it's fun to look at.  B)  Give me forecast soundings any day.

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57 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Cristobal was actually a tad deeper than the 00z run, but lower gusts on this run.

That is sort of a clown product anyway, even though it's fun to look at.  B)  Give me forecast soundings any day.

For 0z Wed out of DeKalb Co...

ecmwf_full_2020060712_060_41_75--88_75.thumb.png.cfdaf54083838ae88543f72c1c94b1c3.png

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Reminds me of what Indiana and Ohio went through with the remnants of Ike. Can't remember the year. So eerie. Mid afternoon...as the remnants passed we never had a drop of rain, but with peak sunshine the winds were awful for a couple of hours as the heating mixed down the very strong air currents. The wind was incredible. Everyone was outside witnessing the roar and trying to stand still. The shrieking was punctuated by the constant cracking of trees here in the Dayton area and limbs were flying like crazy. My next door neighbors lost 4 or 5 full grown pear trees. We have an in ground pool and the mess was incredible with all the debris. Never will forget it. Enjoy the phenomenon west of here!

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3 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Reminds me of what Indiana and Ohio went through with the remnants of Ike. Can't remember the year. So eerie. Mid afternoon...as the remnants passed we never had a drop of rain, but with peak sunshine the winds were awful for a couple of hours as the heating mixed down the very strong air currents. The wind was incredible. Everyone was outside witnessing the roar and trying to stand still. The shrieking was punctuated by the constant cracking of trees here in the Dayton area and limbs were flying like crazy. My next door neighbors lost 4 or 5 full grown pear trees. We have an in ground pool and the mess was incredible with all the debris. Never will forget it. Enjoy the phenomenon west of here!

It was September 2008.

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Tropical/non-tropical sort of exists on a scale from not tropical at all to purely tropical, and is not necessarily a binary yes/no thing, but it is pretty remarkable that they have it as a tropical depression in Wisconsin.

Also, one of the few times that Lake Michigan will be mentioned in an NHC discussion 

No significant intensification is expected before landfall occurs 
late this afternoon or early evening primarily due to Cristobal's 
broad wind field. However, intrusions of dry air could result in 
wind gusts of 55-60 kt in some of the stronger squalls. After 
landfall, only slow weakening is expected due to the cyclone's large 
wind field. In the 60-96 hour period, some slight strengthening to 
gale-force strength is forecast due to strong baroclinic forcing 
during the extratropical transition, and a long southerly to 
south-southwesterly wind fetch blowing across Lake Michigan. The 
official intensity closely follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and 
ECMWF global models.

 

204900_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.98d4ce18f2cfce78804ea2a656d1c991.png

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Wind fields impressive with this. Curious how much phasing we will get between the remnants and incoming trough. Seems the trend has been for less phasing. Regardless still looks like solid wind advisory to possibly high wind warning criteria. Won't take much instability at all for a robust tornado threat with low topped supercells. Hope this times during peak heating Tues to maximize severe potential 

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Looking back at Ike and comparing to Cristobal, this one seems more junky with clouds/precip to the east/southeast of the surface low, which suggests not as efficient mixing.  Ike's pressure stayed relatively steady state from 12z to 00z on the 14th... between about 987-990 mb.  The surface low with Cristobal will be deepening as it moves through, so that is one advantage it has over Ike.     

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14 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

3K NAM is also much less linear, looks like a broken line of supercells

Has upper 80s to low 90s on the outer flank.  If it can get that warm, who cares if it gets too cloudy after that.

sfct_b.us_mw.thumb.png.639d46a1ab8108e0e62e950c87042ce8.png

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