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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People who already gave up with Teddy are probably the same ones who gave up with the past  storms that hit the northeast. 

Ease off the trophy throttle - hahaha.. 

That scenario offered up with that capture stuff is both outside of the Euro's wheelhouse, but also ...so damn unusual that it is perfectly justifiable to discount it as very likely - 

Nothing is impossible?   Of course not... If you through 10,000 scenarios at reality, someone will eventually get bitten... but that means you had a .001% chance of an impact out of a single opportunity -  ..yeah, rationally, I'd tend to give up when there's a 99.999% of not having the galactically absurd scenario take place.  

That said, I would caution for the general user/reader that the Euro tends to subtle meridian bias beyond D4.5 ...often taking troughs that are hinted up over Alberta and Manitoba ..etc., and over deepening through SE Canada.   If one applies that possible bias in this situation - which in fact one should - the model could be doing so with the SW aspect of that diving flow out there "beyond it's wheelhouse" ...which than transitively if not directly results in the capture scenario - 

It is no wonder that the GFS, ...having the opposite bias in its mid and extended range, that being too progressive and stretching wave structures in the west to east ( while strangely being too cold with heights over Canada as a confusion... interesting - ), doesn't presently anticipate any capture at all..  

In other words, we could easily be just looking at respective model bias creating their own fantasies about what that time range will be over the west Atlantic, and then as completely objective members of a lucid, incisively witted hoi polloi that we are ( that have NO interest in getting drama fed via exciting model solutions, to boot ) are then picking the models that seem to fit that agenda best...  lol

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That would be so difficult to do. I’m not saying NE winds and a few showers...that is possible. I mean full on beast storm here. Even for Nova Scotia that isn’t easy to do, but much higher chance there. You’d need a huge cutoff and full on block. I’m not sure that’s enough to bring it literally due west for hundreds of miles. 

Ain Hapnin James

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