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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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26 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

937mb.   Port Arthur is going to take a beating.  Wonder if heating oil is produced there?   Maybe time to quickly fill up the oil tanks before prices go up the next few days??

I was just looking at the aerial view of Port Arthur. The amount of chemical/oil industry there is eye opening.  The size of the Valero refinery is incredible. Its looks to be over 2 miles wide. 

Are these places designed for a direct hit? If not the environmental impact is going to be huge. There is a huge BASF chemical plant just the North as well.

 

Screenshot_20200826-195253_Maps.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Won't matter now, surge is set

This is probably the most important point. 

It's probably going to need to do it soon if it's going to reach Cat 5, because the deep core convection is starting to interact with land and shear is increasing on the west side. They've got flights in there until landfall though, so we should know with a fair amount of certainty if it does or not.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This is probably the most important point. 

It's probably going to need to do it soon if it's going to reach Cat 5, because the deep core convection is starting to interact with land and shear is increasing on the west side. They've got flights in there until landfall though, so we should know with a fair amount of certainty if it does or not.

 

20200826_201830.jpg

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23 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

In fairness, the "unsurvivable" is coming directly from the NHC. You can argue whether that's hype or not, but it's not the result of media blowing it out of proportion. 

I would say it's a pretty small list of NWS offices this vulnerable to storm surge. 

Doesn't matter where the word came from, but the fact that it came from a weather office makes it worse. Saying something is "unsurvviable " is dishonest, over the top and indeed hyperbole. ...Unless I misread the death toll.  This is the kind of language Kevin would use (In jest), and people here would be ripping him to shreds.

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4 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Doesn't matter where the word came from, but the fact that it came from a weather office makes it worse. Saying something is "unsurvviable " is dishonest, over the top and indeed hyperbole. ...Unless I misread the death toll.  This is the kind of language Kevin would use (In jest), and people here would be ripping him to shreds.

Meh, let's let the verification process play out before it's called a total bust. 15 foot surge a few miles west indeed may have been an entirely different story and death toll, but it looks like it largely hit unpopulated swamp evolved to absorb that kind of surge. But that type of storm surge is indeed nearly impossible to ride out. I'm really not bent out of shape about the wording, I have more issues with how we do surge forecasting.

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13 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Doesn't matter where the word came from, but the fact that it came from a weather office makes it worse. Saying something is "unsurvviable " is dishonest, over the top and indeed hyperbole. ...Unless I misread the death toll.  This is the kind of language Kevin would use (In jest), and people here would be ripping him to shreds.

There was a 17' storm surge recorded to the east. Lake Charles is very lucky. The wording was appropriate. 

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