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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This storm looks like absolute ka-ka. I’d be surprised if there is much of any tropical wind core left by the time it reaches here. All gonna be hoping you get s LLJ max as it rapidly expands eastward. 

Like the side of your explorer after taking Kevin home from the bar.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This storm looks like absolute ka-ka. I’d be surprised if there is much of any tropical wind core left by the time it reaches here. All gonna be hoping you get s LLJ max as it rapidly expands eastward. 

Exactly ...my sentiments.  I am not sure what those modeling/wind products are based upon - I assume some sort of raw gridded imputs off the various sigma levels, then adiabats as a start... blah blah... but you just get the "feel" looking that decompressing pressure pattern and losing standard intervals so rapidly in many guidances ( not to mention, that behavior fits this system's history)... while only being 990-ish in the first place.  I've seen people play Golf with wind prospects like that.  

I joked last night that this thing might glide over like a decoupled/detached see-through frisbie ...  It floats over head and people look around vaguely aware for hearing it go by -

I don't know...right now it's a busted blown out ravioli ... In fact, though it is probably just an artifice of hiding in the hi res vis loops, it almost appeals at that vaneer like the SW quadrant isn't even closing into the arc anymore.  This system is a single curve wind band on the NE quad... just at first glance. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

So you're on board today? Nice...that's 2 days in a row. You've been alternating daily for the last 5 days.

Go back and check . I’ve been on this tracking west with wind being the issue. I said rain would be well west and that was not a threat . While a couple mets said this would trend East and would be no wind . We tried to tell em.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I had to guess, I think CT probably has the best chance of winds in the srn part of the state vs rest of region. 

Could be a couple of good gusts on Tolland since they mix out so well and torch easily on S winds. 

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Mm.. in terms of "relative error" ..I'd have to give the nod to the Euro tho - so far and overall 

The NAVGEM - which ...shouldn't exist as a "model" ...but just to make the point - has had a couple runs into the Category 2 range of EC abrasion all the way up. Which is intuitively laughable anyway, but using that as the upper bound... the Euro on the other hand, while being just an open wave at times taking this into the Gulf Of Mexico, does sort of win by virtue of just being weak in over all integrity ... This thing has had a low shear, high oceanic heat content since it was 800 mi E of the Windward Isles ...and it's just coughed like an old Jalopy all the way up ... Sometimes these things take a bit of reanalysis to figure out -  

Whatever the reason, the Euro seems to get credit in my mind for general reticence to commit to this thing... 

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The models were forecasting the increasing shear though - that specific aspect should not come as a surprise...  I mean, if one chooses to use the models.

Despite that, why then did some models attemp "re" intensification ( more like intensification at all...) as it was moving parallel or on the coast?   

After acceleration commences... that might be a response ( internal physical processing) in the models of having said acceleration lower the storm-relative shear.  This sort of 2ndary profile sustaining if not some regain after recurve is observed at times in the past, particularly those system running out SE of NS over the G-string en route to England ...sort of collocated ... They could be moving along at 45 mph at that point, and regaining cane 1 status... I've seen this a lot.  

 

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Yeah the Euro's specifics on this were abysmal ...particularly when it was 3 and 5 days back ... comparing those run times to where we are now...  no doubt. 

Still ( and it may just be dumb luck! ) the Euro's never liked this thing.

This thing has never liked 'this thing'

Those two observations = the same thing... a paltry result.   

That's all I'm saying -

That aside ... we have to remember that the Euro isn't a bad model ...hello.  And, just because it kept this thing on life-support too long and had to finally "find it" in the physics eventually ...doesn't mean it will be necessarily wrong going forward.  

 

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