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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't think we're in a TC drought - per se ... - in New England.

Unless this has changed ... I recall reading there's a rough 30 year periodicity for at or > cat 1 threat N of NYC latitude/coast...

We had Bob in ' 91?  ...plus, a cornucopia of residual threats that might sorta kinda argue for occurrence ( tho lame) via the lesser aggregate. 

Expectations are constant drama and dystopian or bust, I know ... Lol

38
44
54 (X2 or 3 - does Hazel count?)
60? (Did Donna make landfall in New England, or offer Cat 1 winds in the region?)
long jump
85
91
That's 6-8 from 1900 forward (assuming none 1900-37) - looks more like a 20-year periodicity unless I'm missing something.  Of course, 20 yr period isn't 20/40/60/80 due to the stochastic nature of wx.

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Bahamas needs to be watched.  System there has been producing persistent and consistent convection.  There appears to be a strong mid-level low present.  SSTs over 29.5C in the Bahamas, strong upper level anticyclonic flow producing strong northern (Poleward) outflow channel, wind shear less than 15 knots, less if the ULAC develops overhead.  We need to see a surface center develop further, but chances are low if anything develops.  It will head out to sea ahead of a trough.

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5 hours ago, NSwx said:

I would love to see this play out exactly as the 00z Gfs is depicting. I had my share of Hurricane winds last year but we really do need a nice soaking of rain only the tropics can deliver. 

Are you on Sable Island year-round? Must get some pretty wild stuff out there....would be nice to spend a week out there in winter.

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20 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Are you on Sable Island year-round? Must get some pretty wild stuff out there....would be nice to spend a week out there in winter.

I live on Cape Sable Island on the very southern tip of NS.  Would love to visit Sable at some point though, certainly some active weather to see.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Not much use tracking exactly what happens right now. The steering pattern is the thing to watch, on the ensembles. Immediate environment around 92L right now.

We will be bouncing around on the models after a center is developed and definitely bouncing before that. 

34773705.gif?0.13363675705329114

Definitely a vigorous looking wave, I have faith this one will be talked about a fair amount in the coming days.

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On 7/25/2020 at 3:24 PM, tamarack said:

38
44
54 (X2 or 3 - does Hazel count?)
60? (Did Donna make landfall in New England, or offer Cat 1 winds in the region?)
long jump
85
91
That's 6-8 from 1900 forward (assuming none 1900-37) - looks more like a 20-year periodicity unless I'm missing something.  Of course, 20 yr period isn't 20/40/60/80 due to the stochastic nature of wx.

It might have been 20 yeah. But “drought” should imply a ‘serious dearth’ extending beyond that range ... to which neither in statistical parlance or spirit are we there.  

I’d also suggest that hurricanes coming up the coast like ‘38 .. Hazel ... etc, might Even get more rare with an expanded Hadley Cell 

  Just an educated hunch 

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