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WxWatcher007

Tropical Storm Cristobal

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Mother of all Great Lakes Lows...

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

SS Edmund Fitzgerald bombogenesis material there.
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I doubt that Euro run will verify (several Euro runs are showing a major storm over the Great Lakes), but if it did, it would not surprise me to see an outbreak of severe thunderstorms associated with it.  Some GFS runs have also showed a major Great Lakes storm in the same time frame. 

Getting a low like that in June is practically unheard of, and if it verifies, it could be something to end the tornado drought (from May) as well.

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Not really much to say. Cristobal got shunted fairly deep into Mexico and has degraded quite a bit. Much lower ceiling for intensification in the Gulf but it can still be a fairly robust tropical storm.

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Not really much to say. Cristobal got shunted fairly deep into Mexico and has degraded quite a bit. Much lower ceiling for intensification in the Gulf but it can still be a fairly robust tropical storm.

Hopefully it’ll bring some much needed rain to the Panhandle of Florida!


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The National Hurricane Center requested the additional launches (every 6 hours) to aid in improving the forecasting of Tropical Depression Cristobal.

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Based on how far inland the system has pushed today, around 30 additional hours spent inland, and the extreme degradation of the satellite appearance, is there a chance the system degenerates into a remnant low, and the new LP that forms gets a new name? Or would they decide to re-name the new system Cristobal, for continuity? Definitely seems like a possible solution as the LP has drifted much further inland and to the east that it seems it will have to ride up the entire peninsula, spending more time over land and possibly becoming a remnant low before re-forming in the gulf

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Based on how far inland the system has pushed today, around 30 additional hours spent inland, and the extreme degradation of the satellite appearance, is there a chance the system degenerates into a remnant low, and the new LP that forms gets a new name? Or would they decide to re-name the new system Cristobal, for continuity? Definitely seems like a possible solution as the LP has drifted much further inland and to the east that it seems it will have to ride up the entire peninsula, spending more time over land and possibly becoming a remnant low before re-forming in the gulf

IIRC, one of the early discussions basically had this scenario as a possibility. I think they would just keep it as Cristobal if it is the same disturbance.

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3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Based on how far inland the system has pushed today, around 30 additional hours spent inland, and the extreme degradation of the satellite appearance, is there a chance the system degenerates into a remnant low, and the new LP that forms gets a new name? Or would they decide to re-name the new system Cristobal, for continuity? Definitely seems like a possible solution as the LP has drifted much further inland and to the east that it seems it will have to ride up the entire peninsula, spending more time over land and possibly becoming a remnant low before re-forming in the gulf

I think if it’s in the basin, it keeps its name. 

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36 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Storm surge & TS watches posted for the N Gulf Coast per the 10:00 am advisory’s.


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Cristobal looking healthy at the moment. Dry air entrainment from west is not going to allow for rapid strengthening but a very robust circulation for having spent so much time on land and healthy outflow to the North and East is allowing for a strong convective band to maintain itself and expand today to the north and east of the center.

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17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Back up to a 40 mph TS even though the center remains inland (seems to be very close to the coast now)

Do you think it will explode to a monster storm with Cat 3 or above? 

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4 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Do you think it will explode to a monster storm with Cat 3 or above? 

Highly unlikely given moderate shear, time over water and really dry air on the left side. But i've been surprised before re: michael.

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34 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Do you think it will explode to a monster storm with Cat 3 or above? 

No. May make run at minimal hurricane at most. Likely to be a high end TS

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25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

No. May make run at minimal hurricane at most. Likely to be a high end TS

Totally agree. Too many environmental factors prohibiting rapid intensification.

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I am actually impressed that Cristobal is as tight as he is. I thought he'd be more of a pin-wheel the way Isidore was back in 2002 after leaving the Yucatan Peninsula.

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25 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I am actually impressed that Cristobal is as tight as he is. I thought he'd be more of a pin-wheel the way Isidore was back in 2002 after leaving the Yucatan Peninsula.

Yeah tight circulation but it's failing right now to fire any convection. Will be interesting to see if convection fires tonight with the aid of nighttime.

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As the first outflow clouds traverse the area tonight, it has “the feel” outside. Extreme dew points & humidity, for this time of year, have arrived on the W FL Panhandle.

 

 

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWGkrvvb8SA&feature=emb_title

A bit old (from last night) but a great update from Levi on the future evolution of Cristobal. Looks like once the dry air to the west gets wrapped around and cuts off the subtropical, nearly frontal characteristics of the storm on its east side, Cristobal may have a small window to intensify via more tropical processes. Likely won't have a whole lot of time to do so if and when the moisture bubble of the storm becomes more consolidated.

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Its trying to fight off the dry air intrusion,it looks ragged right now with all the convection on the eastern flank,its going to be a good soaker for the drought areas tho

Weathernerds_Satellite_Data (3).png

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18 minutes ago, thunderman said:

Will have to watch and see what happens.  New convection popping up now near the circulation.

GOES16_1km_ir_202006062235_21.00_29.50_-97.25_-83.25_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

Recon seems to be finding a stronger storm. Lower extrapolated pressure and increased FL and SFMR readings. Nicest convective burst yet near the center. 

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