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June Discobs 2020


George BM
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Well, looks like next weekend could potentially be the hottest of the year so far, unless something changes, as it is far out

DIT from New England will be very happy.

Current temp is 93/77. Hottest of the year so far I think.

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Mount Holly's take for early next week. Probably a good move to go with the Euro over the flip flopping GFS at this point lol.

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By Sunday, models begin to diverge with their solution. The GFS begins to open up the closed low to our west and lift a trough to our north, while the ECMWF keeps the closed low in place. Both models have showers impacting the region through Sunday and Sunday night. However, as we go into early next week, the GFS develops ridging aloft and surface high pressure, while the ECMWF keeps the surface high to our north with the closed low across the Mid- Atlantic region. We will stay closer to the ECMWF since it has had better consistency and the GFS is a complete 180 from 24 hours ago, even 12 hours ago. This will keep an unsettled forecast for the first half of the week with a chance of showers each day, although it likely will not rain the entire time period.

 

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1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

Heavy rain missed my yard by about 3 miles as it approached from the SW and then scooted by to the west and northwest.   Nice gusty winds at least knocked back the heat.

Looks like I will be watering this evening.

A pop up storm with booming thunder is now dropping rain 3 miles to my east, lol.  

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS is a soaker through HR 252, but we've seen scenario play out all spring - it looks wet long range but then goes poof inside of HR 60.

Just a tad wetter than its previous runs.

At least for one run, it appears to have completely folded to the Euro idea at h5. Awful model.

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This upcoming system appears to have broken the Euro.  There is a spot north of Williamsburg, VA that is progged to get 20" of rain on Monday.

 

Incredible amounts for sure, the WPC seems to concur to a degree, and trend the last 6 days has been to bring some heavier rains a bit further North and East. 

Middle of country really drying out,  and wondering whether that heat comes up and over later in the period.    

 

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If the Euro seasonal for July  is correct wonder if during the transition this this pattern, as well as during oscillations,  we share in more frequent moisture, and frontal passages during the this coming July.     

 

20200611_064415.jpg

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