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June Discobs 2020


George BM
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10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m not expecting anything today and am watering the garden after a dump run this morning, so maybe I get surprised this afternoon. Also, water here is silly cheap, but a sprinkler isn’t the same as rain water.

I just put down fertilizer that is not supposed to be rained on for 24 hours, so, expect some downpours.  

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56 minutes ago, peribonca said:

What’s the eta for frontal passage in DC?

Late afternoon/ evening.

One inhibiting factor for storm development is the flow ahead of the main front is likely to bring some drier air into the area this afternoon. I will be keeping an eye on the dew point here. Its sultry as hell out there now. Just do anything for a few minutes and you are soaked. Already took a shower.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Late afternoon/ evening.

One inhibiting factor for storm development is the flow ahead of the main front is likely to bring some drier air into the area this afternoon. I will be keeping an eye on the dew point here. Its sultry as hell out there now. Just do anything for a few minutes and you are soaked. Already took a shower.

Not nearly as bad here today compared to yesterday. I worked outside most of yesterday and I’ve already had 2 quarts of water this morning. I guess the Natty Boh’s yesterday didn’t help.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Not nearly as bad here today compared to yesterday. I worked outside most of yesterday and I’ve already had 2 quarts of water this morning. I guess the Natty Boh’s yesterday didn’t help.

Maybe some drier air has advected in over there already. It is hideous here.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

85/62 . It's the dry heat :whistle:

There are some storms firing up now in southern/eastern areas with the juice still in place. Looks to be scattered/isolated though. Probably be pretty intense for places that get under one though.

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Feels like June.  The humidity could be lower especially if it's not going to rain!

And last night, for the first time I saw fireflies.  I have to say this is the latest I've seen them first.

Here is the view facing south.  That boomer near Calvert Cliffs isn't visible from this view.  I need to move the PTZ higher on the tower. ;)

Screen Shot 2020-06-06 at 5.22.11 PM.png

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Where did THIS come from!?! One heck of an electrical storm going on here now. Last I saw of forecast discussion from NWS Blacksburg at noon was they were gonna put a SMALL chance of storms to the east (of Lynchburg) due to a coupe models showing that possibility. Nothing for here. Now under a warning and it is a rockin'!

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From Don S. tonight.

I was not aware of the current SOI crash and the potential implications for later this month. 

<

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

>

 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Another perfect morning in the garden. Sunny and 60. Looks like the sprinklers will be busy this week.

Do you water your lawn or other areas?  I tried last year watering the lawn and lost my ambition and suffered the consequences. This year I will let it go dormant and hope rains visit at least to keep the crown alive so in the Fall it may bounce back. I have 3/4 acres far too much to water. Even the front with 1/3 acre is too much to consistently water correctly. 

And yes, the rainfall forecasts have trended drier. 

    p168i.gif?1591618344

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Gfs and GGEM have some good rainfall this week with the frontal passage. Euro is much less impressed. May be due to the timing of FROPA. Gfs has it Wednesday afternoon and evening, supporting storms. Ggem the same but 18-24 hrs later, while euro splits the difference so no instability Thursday morning.

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Do you water your lawn or other areas?  I tried last year watering the lawn and lost my ambition and suffered the consequences. This year I will let it go dormant and hope rains visit at least to keep the crown alive so in the Fall it may bounce back. I have 3/4 acres far too much to water. Even the front with 1/3 acre is too much to consistently water correctly. 

And yes, the rainfall forecasts have trended drier. 

    p168i.gif?1591618344

I've got a 60×50' fenced in garden. I also have a 40×50' corn plot. The corn plots need consistent watering. I don't care about my grass. My corn is the only grass on property I care about lol. 

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