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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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I'm beginning to think it will never rain again here.  We heard thunder, there are reports of flooding in Smithtown (and a flood advisory), but I'm about 2 miles north of Main Street and we literally did not get a single drop of rain from that cell.

At least the temperature went from 84 to 78, so that's something.

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Watch posted for NYC and points north and west through 8pm.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 312 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Southeastern New York Extreme northeastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will persist and spread east-southeastward from southeastern New York and northeastern Pennsylvania to southern New England through the afternoon. The strongest storms could have some transient supercell structures, with multicell clusters the primary storm mode. Occasional damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main threats. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Monticello NY to 20 miles east northeast of Providence RI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

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14 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm beginning to think it will never rain again here.  We heard thunder, there are reports of flooding in Smithtown (and a flood advisory), but I'm about 2 miles north of Main Street and we literally did not get a single drop of rain from that cell.

At least the temperature went from 84 to 78, so that's something.

Rain shot our dew up to 77. A steamy 81/77 now under blazing sun. After seeing how full everything was outside I estimate about an inch, consistent with radar

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On 6/24/2020 at 7:46 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Another day without rain? Not a good way to start the summer. As we have seen in the past drought often leads to more drought. 

I'd like hot and low humidity weather interspersed with rain once a week, not hot and humid and no rain .

 

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On 6/24/2020 at 7:49 AM, bluewave said:

Top 2 driest pattern for several stations since the pattern change back in mid-May. Not much rain in the forecast.

Time Series Summary for Bridgeport Area, CT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Precipitation May 17 to Jun 23
Missing Count
1 1957-06-23 0.63 0
2 2020-06-23 0.75 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Precipitation May 17 to Jun 23
Missing Count
1 2020-06-23 1.12 0
Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Precipitation May 17 to Jun 23
Missing Count
1 1964-06-23 1.17 0
2 2020-06-23 1.21 0


46F45863-548E-4B03-8AFF-5C372F48BE44.gif.93f1eee21f0904c56e9ff678c64b44ba.gif

Chris, I wonder if we're entering a multiyear dry pattern like we had in the 60s?  If so, next summer may be our hottest summer EVER!

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44 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm beginning to think it will never rain again here.  We heard thunder, there are reports of flooding in Smithtown (and a flood advisory), but I'm about 2 miles north of Main Street and we literally did not get a single drop of rain from that cell.

At least the temperature went from 84 to 78, so that's something.

it doesnt rain here on the south shore, which I'm usually fine with as long as the humidity is low....but nope, cant have low humidity here!

 

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it doesnt rain here on the south shore, which I'm usually fine with as long as the humidity is low....but nope, cant have low humidity here!

 

You got rain yesterday 

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40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, I wonder if we're entering a multiyear dry pattern like we had in the 60s?  If so, next summer may be our hottest summer EVER!

My guess is that the climate has become too wet here to allow for another 1960s style drought. That was something like a 500 year drought based on the tree ring study.  Ever since 2003, our dry patterns end before we get to any serious water restrictions. 

EA768BDB-A8A5-4D30-93DD-50A3E07D1593.jpeg.f12aa4e491884829f20dbe1a49ab7f13.jpeg


 

https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/09/06/epic-wetness-in-the-greater-new-york-city-region-and-what-broadleaf-trees-have-to-say-about-it/

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the climate has become too wet here to allow for another 1960s style drought. That was something like a 500 year drought based on the tree ring study.  Ever since 2003, our dry patterns end before we get to any serious water restrictions. 

EA768BDB-A8A5-4D30-93DD-50A3E07D1593.jpeg.f12aa4e491884829f20dbe1a49ab7f13.jpeg


 

https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/09/06/epic-wetness-in-the-greater-new-york-city-region-and-what-broadleaf-trees-have-to-say-about-it/

the higher humidity and rainfall plus the warmer winters have made my allergies much worse.

I was hoping for at least a two year dry pattern because next summer is the peak of the 11 yr cycle of hot summers.

 

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Pouring here in Rockland County.
Check out that main line coming our way!!

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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That line just went through here in Sullivan, missed the strong winds but it poured buckets for a solid 20 minutes. It could hold well for a few more hours before weakening some...maybe strengthen just a tad more?

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Coney Island finally lost the sun at 4pm, T at 81, high so far.       The Morristown storm which could reach me is dying out based on the number of lightning strokes.     White Plains appears to be at the center of the action now, 4:20pm.

Finally some heavy showers here at 7:00pm-7:15pm, but mostly north of me.

As a side note, the GFS during the 7 day period July 07-13 has an average high T of 98!!! in store for us.        I warned two days ago the surface wind seemed more westerly starting the 7th.           The GFS has had manic T's in almost all its runs, showing at least one 100-Degree Day each day on one or more runs since about June 04.       Any 100 it has shown in the last 7.5 years of course was wrong.       2012 has our last 100 degree day.

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Mostly cloudy 88 dew 66 after a high of 92.

A few distant rumbles of thunder, but saw some dramatic lightning strikes looking north. Was briefly on the roof but then got the hell off. Also looks very ominous looking toward Westchester while some sun shines looking toward LGA.

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heat advects southwest from canada thurs-fri. totally normal and ok

ecmwf_T850a_us_fh0-144.gif

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Seabreeze front thunderstorm dropped .38" here in South Commack.

Hoping for more, but not holding my breath. 

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44 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

heat advects southwest from canada thurs-fri. totally normal and ok

 

A backdoor warm front on the 3rd followed by a backdoor cold front on the 4th. 

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