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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Up to 78 off a low of 67 here.

 

Overnight runs continue a warm pattern only interrupted 6/30 - 7/2 (or 3rd) by an onshore component before more heat comes in for Independence Day weekend.  ECM did show this feature on the 00z guidance while GFS warmer than the Monday runs.  Tendency has been for ridging to build north so that period is likely to see heat muted for a 3-4 day window.  Beyond there July looks to sizzle for much of the nation.

 

Days near or exceeding 90 : 6/23,24, 27, 28, 29,  before a few days of cooler.

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Overnight Euro is already pulling back on any extreme heat. Looks like another omega block showing up.

Cutoff with onshore flow to start July, could exit by July 4th though these systems tend to stick around longer. 

GFS OP would be very cool to start July.

Very good point as seen in the last two cutoff ULL migrations.   add a day or two vs model projections.  Suspect the period would be 6/30 - 7/2 or 7/3 before the flow turns on the heat by 4th of July weekend.  Alternately we can see a scenario where the flow stays more northerly pushing down the heat during that period.  I would lean towards the onshore  flow for a few days to open the month.  With enough clouds maybe the GFS was onto something unusually cool for a day to two before the heat can filter in.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave the euro lost the heat for next week and has temps in the 70’s 

The OP Euro has been having these big run to run swings day 6-10 recently. But you can see the EPS moving toward a stronger omega blocking pattern now.  
 

New run

67FE41DF-EEDC-445C-94DF-5C4597555A08.thumb.png.1680585410b9f11e22544a15d9ab8868.png


Old run

DA5CE6CC-19C1-49C8-BD7F-E26405D383EA.thumb.png.bdbc7434d9a9b1a6b12725186f8bd0b2.png

 

 


 


 

 

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36 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The lawn has seen better days...

 

Looks like a top 5 driest June through the 22nd for your area.

Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Jun 22
Missing Count
1 1993-06-22 0.00 8
2 1949-06-22 0.02 0
3 1988-06-22 0.29 0
4 2020-06-22 0.30 0
5 1957-06-22 0.40 0

 

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7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It's wild. We're going to need to call USNS Comfort back just to sew everybody's fingers back on after the 4th.

Yeah the 4th should be wild this year...dont mind it then. We used to have tons of stuff when I was younger...was legal back then I believe.

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18 minutes ago, doncat said:

You're seeing a lot of fireworks up your way also?

Personally, no but that’s due to my location within a county park. The area in general, yes, my infant grandson was disturbed numerous times last night while trying to go to sleep where my son lives in Middletown.  There was an article in the local paper this morning about the issue. 

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1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Personally, no but that’s due to my location within a county park. The area in general, yes, my infant grandson was disturbed numerous times last night while trying to go to sleep where my son lives in Middletown.  There was an article in the local paper this morning about the issue. 

Yeah very inconsiderate to be setting those things off late at night, other than on the 4th.

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Yeah the 4th should be wild this year...dont mind it then. We used to have tons of stuff when I was younger...was legal back then I believe.

as a kid I wasn't allowed to get fireworks...the next day I would round up all the duds and light them up...back in the 1960's it was a war zone in my neighborhood...If you drove you were a moving target for cherry bombs...

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41 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Expect it’s been record heat after record heat to our north, 90s literally everyday

Unusual ring of ridging to our north across the Northern Hemisphere since last late May. Keeps us in an easterly flow with record warmth to our north and west.  So we get these omega block type patterns that occasionally extend into Northern New England. The first in late May had the new May all-time high temperature for BTV. Most recently, CAR had their all-time June high. Albany recorded a daily record high yesterday. The models now continue this general pattern into at least early July. So this year we are getting and early summer pattern that actually began in late May.

531535D9-83EC-46DD-93DD-80C9C2BE9F74.gif.1d3ce85208dde4aec016938b730e0f1e.gif

FAD51BE2-FC52-44B8-B31B-3AF75D866FA1.thumb.png.fb7fddc89f9359af04d0aceef7d5d39b.png

 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

one of those years the heat just want to get here-basically the reverse of winter where the cold never came

If you like heat it's like its too hot for your own good. Record warmth shooting past us

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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave the euro lost the heat for next week and has temps in the 70’s 

Whenever you see that trough build northeast of us, this year expect it to strengthen and expand. The number of days with primarily a westerly wind is a small fraction of the days with a southerly or easterly wind in the last 3-4 months. 

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54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unusual ring of ridging to our north across the Northern Hemisphere since last late May. Keeps us in an easterly flow with record warmth to our north and west.  So we get these omega block type patterns that occasionally extend into Northern New England. The first in late May had the new May all-time high temperature for BTV. Most recently, CAR had their all-time June high. Albany recorded a daily record high yesterday. The models now continue this general pattern into at least early July. So this year we are getting and early summer pattern that actually began in late May.

531535D9-83EC-46DD-93DD-80C9C2BE9F74.gif.1d3ce85208dde4aec016938b730e0f1e.gif

FAD51BE2-FC52-44B8-B31B-3AF75D866FA1.thumb.png.fb7fddc89f9359af04d0aceef7d5d39b.png

 

in 2018 we had to wait for the subtropical ridge expansion to give us more S to SW flow and we got hot toward august 

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22 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Another euro fantasy heatwave or you think this is legit? 

if we get a hot spell it will be from an atlantic ridge retrograde which can push any cutoff far enough to our east. the classic plains heat releases are just not working out this year

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