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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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The next 8 days are averaging 75degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.1[71.1].         Should be +1.4[72.2] by the 28th.

69* here at 6am, clear.      73* by Noon, cumulus to the west.

Could become mostly cloudy by 2pm, but with no more than drizzle for a while.

Been using ENS T's.   GFSx down for 4 days now.      GFS OP should come with a Warning about T's, at least in our part of the world.     Highlight this run is a July 4th. Weekend all in the 100's!      Behaved same way last year, I believe.    ENS still has no 90's! 

It is averaging 81.5 or +8 for the rest of June.       Hey!, and that is before the 100's even start.      Get this:     First 5 days of July are averaging 90, or +14!

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Just now, gravitylover said:

So today stays dry N/NE of the city? Trying to figure out if I water the garden this morning or not.

I’d water. Even if there are showers there’s no guarantee where they will be or how much they will drop. It’s super dry here any thunderstorm I get now will certainly just run off. 

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58 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I’d water. Even if there are showers there’s no guarantee where they will be or how much they will drop. It’s super dry here any thunderstorm I get now will certainly just run off. 

Yeah the yard is bone dry but the garden is properly hydrated. I agree, it doesn't look like it's going to be terribly wet so watering it is.

Stuffy, muggy morning going on. Some of that wind from earlier in the week would be nice.

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Avoided the showers yesterday and climbed up to 85.  Already 75/67 now.

Overnight guidance has this ULL/ cut off fleeing by Sunday evening with storms and clouds both today and tomorrow, as of now mostly sunny so expect temps to reach low-id 80s again.  We'll see if showers and clouds are more widespread tomorrow / Fathers day.  Beyond there Mon - Fri look hot with each day close to or exceeding 90 ahead of the next front Fri nd into next weekend. As we close out June 6/29 and into early July nation looks warm and ridging pushes more heat/above normal temps into the area.  Still think its warm and wet (storms) . Still need to watch pattern getting stuck up the tendency of late but looking more a concern north..

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the highs will only be able to make it to around 90 next week near the EWR to LGA area. This has been the the same theme since late May. The major 95+ heat has found a way to go north or south of us. Strongest ridging in the means has set up to our west. While this most recent ridge was able to build into New England, a cutoff was underneath keeping us in a more onshore flow. We may see a continuation of this pattern to start July. Models have another strong ridge to our west with another possible cutoff somewhere in the East.


8154F73F-2D6A-44AC-B95B-AF6C45DABDBE.gif.cc8ec84e3ecef74288bca797ec992ac1.gif

4AB418A7-D517-4C10-BA28-3F6971554992.thumb.png.3838d1355bc4a5c94f570fc5f723d943.png

2A0F95BF-4199-4517-B179-8BDC0CFD9301.thumb.png.e99e7aabd16154c87495e24600bbdfa7.png

 

Been a bit back and forth but you do have to consider the tendency of the northeast weakness - feel this may adjust north of that prog.  Time will tell

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Cool down;

6/13:
NYC: 75/59 (-4)
EWR: 77/58 (-4)
LGA:  77/60 (-3)
JFK:  73/59 (-3)
TTN: 74/57 (-4)

6/14
NYC: 75/52(-6)
EWR: 75/53 (-8)
LGA:  75/55 (-7)
JFK: 71/54 (-7)
TTN: 75/52 (-6)

 

6/15:
NYC: 75/59 (-5)
EWR: 75/56 (-7)
LGA: 77/62 (-2)
JFK: 73/56 (-5)
TTN: 75/52 (-7)

 

6/16:
NYC:  78/60 (-3)
EWR: 78/57 (-5)
LGA: 80/63 (-1)
JFK: 76/58 (-4)
TTN: 76/53 (-6)


6/17:
NYC:  77/65 (-1)
EWR: 77/64 (-2)
LGA:  78/65 (-1)
JFK: 75/62 (-2)
TTN: 78/62 (-1)
 

---------------------------------------

6/18:
NYC:   83/65 (+1)
EWR: 84/56 (+1)
LGA: 86/67 (+4)
JFK: 78/54 (-1)
TTN: 84/63 (+2)

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the highs will only be able to make it to around 90 next week in spots like EWR and LGA.This has been the the same theme since late May. The major 95+ heat has found a way to go north or south of us. Strongest ridging in the means has set up to our west. While this most recent ridge was able to build into New England, a cutoff was underneath keeping us in a more onshore flow. We may see a continuation of this pattern to start July. Models have another strong ridge to our west with another possible cutoff somewhere in the East.


8154F73F-2D6A-44AC-B95B-AF6C45DABDBE.gif.cc8ec84e3ecef74288bca797ec992ac1.gif

4AB418A7-D517-4C10-BA28-3F6971554992.thumb.png.3838d1355bc4a5c94f570fc5f723d943.png

2A0F95BF-4199-4517-B179-8BDC0CFD9301.thumb.png.e99e7aabd16154c87495e24600bbdfa7.png

 

Mid 80s for LGA on the Euro ensembles, going to be tough to see 90 it seems:

 

FDFF0156-99F8-4C81-8D69-8651FF11C3D2.thumb.png.0f07616d11604b49b1bf8115da334ab6.png

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looking for heat waves is as frustrating as looking for snowstorms last winter...There has to be a year that had a pattern like this with heat to the north and south of us...sooner or later it will get here and with above average minimums already the summer will end up above normal one way or the other...some analogs suggested a warmer than average June but cooler the rest of the way...that could still happen but we would need some help from Canada...So far we are cooler than them...go figure...

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

looking for heat waves is as frustrating as looking for snowstorms last winter...There has to be a year that had a pattern like this with heat to the north and south of us...sooner or later it will get here and with above average minimums already the summer will end up above normal one way or the other...some analogs suggested a warmer than average June but cooler the rest of the way...that could still happen but we would need some help from Canada...So far we are cooler than them...go figure...

by mid july sun angle is decreasing....

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