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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Well, at least we were exceedingly wet for the last two years so how bad can it be :arrowhead:  Of course it's going to dry out significantly, I just bought a nice cordless lawn mower yesterday :lmao:

yeah generally it's been wet enough last few years for things to stay green-this is as dry as I've seen it around here for mid June.   Lawn guys skipped the weekly mow here due to burnout

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All-time June high temperature tied at Caribou. But the all-time record for any month was probably in August 1935 before record keeping began.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
248 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2020

...PRELIMINARY PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE PRELIMINARY HIGH TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON IN CARIBOU, MAINE
WAS 96 DEGREES (F). THIS TIES FOR THE ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
CARIBOU. THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 96 DEGREES WAS FIRST ESTABLISHED 
ON JUNE 29, 1944 AND AGAIN ON MAY 22, 1977. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE
UPDATED IF WE BREAK THE ALL-TIME RECORD. 

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT WEATHER RECORDS IN CARIBOU
BEGAN ON JANUARY 16, 1939, AND THUS DO NOT INCLUDE ALL OF THE 
20TH CENTURY. 

PRESQUE ISLE, MAINE HAS OBSERVED A HIGH OF 99 DEGREES ON 2 DAYS.
THE FIRST WAS ON JULY 11, 1911, AND AGAIN ON AUGUST 18, 1935. ON 
AUGUST 18, 1935, WOODSTOCK (CLOSE TO HOULTON, MAINE), NEIPISGUIT 
FALLS, AND REXTON NEW BRUNSWICK ALL OBSERVED A HIGH OF 103 
DEGREES. EDMUNSDSTON, NEW BRUNSWICK JUST ACROSS THE BORDER FROM 
MADAWASKA, MAINE OBSERVED A HIGH OF 99 DEGREES ON JUNE 3, 1919. 
MILLINOCKET, MAINE HAS OBSERVED A HIGH OF 100 DEGREES ON THREE
OCCASIONS WITH AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF 101 DEGREES ON JUNE 18, 1907. 
THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH IN BANGOR IS 104 DEGREES ON AUGUST 19, 
1935. 

IT IS PROBABLE, AND EVEN LIKELY THAT CARIBOU HAD A HIGH 
TEMPERATURE WARMER THAN 96 DEGREES ON AUGUST 18, 1935, BUT BECAUSE
WEATHER RECORDS DID NOT EXIST AT THE TIME THERE ARE NO RECORDS. 
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41 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Impressive line of storms just to my south west not far from Allentown.  These storms have popped along a ridge line that runs in the same orientation as the that of the storms.  I am waiting to see if they hold their intensity as they approach my area.


garden variety stuff..better than nothing 

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13 minutes ago, Animal said:


garden variety stuff..better than nothing 

 Orographically induced convection out here.  The activity NW of Allentown is now forming along Blue Mountain.  As impressive as the radar looked an hour ago to my south west we still did not even measure.  Not too surprising.

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27 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Offshore water temps are finally making their way through the 60s, that should help make precip easier to come by for the coast. Something about water temps between 50-70 are very stabilizing 

Probably need to shift the blocking ridges from the Upper Midwest to east of New England. Large sections of the US have been dry this month. Parts of New England have had their driest mid-May to Mid-June on record.

FC4D0410-D8E7-4DC4-BFD9-9CBABD762911.gif.2131a8e5511553426b42e39d3ced10ba.gif
C3769D88-30C3-4819-871E-B9B616346EE1.thumb.png.8910ee217701f59f16e19073eeada81b.png

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Record heat again prevailed in northern Maine, parts of Quebec, and in New Brunswick. High temperatures included:

Bathurst, New Brunswick: 96° (old record: 91°, 1995)
Caribou: 96° (old record: 91°, 1965) ***Tied All-Time Record***
Edmundston, New Brunswick: 94° (old record: 88°, 2016)
Fredericton, New Brunswick: 97° (old record: 92°, 1995)
Miramichi, New Brunswick: 99° (old record: 89°, 2016)
Quebec city: 92° (old record: 87°, 2016)

Meanwhile, a major pattern change is now evolving in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was -32.05 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.891.

On June 18, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.379 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.441.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.4°.

 

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Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

And I'm like 5 minutes too far east in Piscataway.

I think @chrisNJ is in for a rainy evening based on the training that's forming.

Yup, I moved from Piscataway a few years ago.  I guess my bad luck stayed there and I brought new bad luck to here.  Its been splitting us

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26 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yup, I moved from Piscataway a few years ago.  I guess my bad luck stayed there and I brought new bad luck to here.  Its been splitting us

Ton of chances this upcoming week, I think it's pretty inevitable we all cash in at some point.  It's nothing but hot and humid as far as the eye can see.

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