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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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The next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or just Normal.

65* here at 6am., overcast, streets wet.        69* here at 9am.      75* by Noon.            79* by 2pm.     72* by 4:30pm (Raining)

The EURO ENS has just one 80-Degree Day (this Sat.-82*), during the next two weeks.         The next period to watch is around June 18, for a heat breakout.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Newark on track for a top 10 latest first 90 degree day.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
#1 1972 07-02 (1972) 91 09-17 (1972) 93 76
#2 1958 06-26 (1958) 92 09-26 (1958) 90 91
#3 2003 06-23 (2003) 90 08-27 (2003) 90 64
#4 1963 06-19 (1963) 90 08-09 (1963) 92 50
#5 2014 06-17 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 95 80
1935 06-17 (1935) 90 08-13 (1935) 90 56
#6 1982 06-16 (1982) 90 08-05 (1982) 90 49
#7 1954 06-13 (1954) 90 08-25 (1954) 91 72
#8 1983 06-12 (1983) 92 09-20 (1983) 92 99
#9 1997 06-10 (1997) 91 08-17 (1997) 94 67
1967 06-10 (1967) 91 08-18 (1967) 90 68
#10 1952 06-09 (1952) 90 09-13 (1952) 94 95

weighted on the cooler side for overall summer averages. 67, 82, 97, 52, 72.  Exceptions 54, 83, 58.  More normal 2014, 35

 

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Remnants of Cristobal look to go  right up the Mississippi  next 5 days.   Once past today's storms and showers it looks dry again till mid next week.   Ridge builds Mon - Wed a bit too north with flow going more northerly and onshore.  Monday could be a sneaky shot at 90 in the warmer inland spots but more onshore by Tue/Wed ahead of the front.  Agree with CIK that heights look to flatten then rise on/around 6/16.  Interesting pattern right on near normal slightly warmer and will see if wetter overall can continue.  

123700_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

 

 

 

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Why is it that the forecasts appear so disconnected from real life.

Here in NYC, the various (suitably hedged) forecasts were for close to a half inch of rain and thundershowers.

A glance at the evolving weather shown on the various radar tracks indicated that the main event would be well south of the city. But the forecast remained the same. Why?

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Sunshine will return tomorrow and readings will likely rise well into the 80s. Somewhat cooler air should follow for Sunday and Monday.

No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase.

The SOI was -46.68 today. That was the lowest SOI figure since February 17, 2017 when the SOI was -51.97.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.662.

On June 4, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.842 (RMM). The June 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.772.

April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or about 1deg. AN.

70* here at 6am(FOG<0.3miles)   71* by 9am and visibility  >7 miles.         78* by Noon.

All three major ENS outputs are indicating today as the warmest day for the next two weeks.

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