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Roger Smith

June 2020 temperature forecast contest (seasonal max for summer 2020)

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Hello, hoping all of you are well or close approximations, I am doing fine but got way behind in my work on several fronts, so this is a bit late being posted. 

As usual we will be predicting anomalies for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA in F deg relative to 1981-2010, and you can add your

ideas about 2020 seasonal maxima for those locations for a mini-contest. 

I will post something in a couple of days, haven't had time to check out any guidance all week. It is turning hot here finally (after weeks of drizzly n/n dross).

Take care and stay well. 

(hurricane forecast contest over in the tropical dead zone too) 

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DCA:  +2.0

NYC:  +2.0

BOS:  +2.0

ORD:  +2.5

ATL:  +1.0

IAH:  +1.0

PHX:  +2.0

DEN:  +2.0

SEA:  +0.5

 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.5     1.0       1.0        1.0      1.5    1.5       1.0       1.0      0.5

 

102  102      99       96        103    107     97        117     97

 

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DCA:  +1.5   102

NYC:  +1.0     99

BOS:  +1.1      99

ORD:  +0.9      102

ATL:  +1.0    102

IAH:  +1.5     104

PHX:  +1.8    119

DEN:  +1.5      97

SEA:  +1.1      96

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DCA:  +2.1    97

NYC:  +2.3     96

BOS:  +2.2      95

ORD:  +1.1      98

ATL:  +1.8      98

IAH:  +1.0     98

PHX:  +1.3    116

DEN:  +1.5      98

SEA:  +0.9      94

 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.5      0.3      0.8        0.8      0.2     -0.3        1.5      1.2      -0.5 

101     98       98         96       99      104        97       118     94

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.1      0.7      1.3        1.9      0.6     1.0        3.9       2.2      -0.5 

99       98       97         96       99      103       98       118      93

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DCA:  +1.4   101

NYC:  +1.0   99

BOS:  +1.5    98

ORD:  +1.5     103

ATL:  +1.5     101

IAH:  +1.3.  103

PHX:  +1.6.  118

DEN:  +1.1     99

SEA:  +1.3. 95

Totally screwed up past 2 months . Now gun shy 

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We have relaxed the late penalties this year, so those won't cost you much at all guys. ... Will replace this with a table of entries later on, I think all the regular entrants have checked in. 

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Not sure if we were to pick high temps now or later, I'll add mine and you can include if you wish.

Thanks!

DCA  100

NYC   99

BOS   99

ORD    98

ATL  100

IAH  105

DEN  103

PHX  117

SEA   96

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9 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

We have relaxed the late penalties this year, so those won't cost you much at all guys. ... Will replace this with a table of entries later on, I think all the regular entrants have checked in. 

I updated

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Table of forecasts for June 2020

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___

wxallannj ___________________+2.1 _+2.3 _+2.2 __ +1.1 _+1.8 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+0.9

RJay _______ (-2%) __________+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +2.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.0 _+2.0 _+0.5

Jakkelwx ___________________+1.5 _+1.2 _+0.5 __ +2.4 _+1.5 _+1.1 __ +2.3 _+2.0 _+0.3

Tom _______________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.1 __ +0.9 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +1.5 _+1.8 _+1.1

Scotty Lightning ____________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5

BKViking ___________________+1.4 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.3

 

___ Consensus _____________ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 __ +1.2 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.6 _+0.4

 

hudsonvalley21 ____________ +1.3 _+1.1 _+1.4 __ +0.6 _+1.7 _+1.5 __ +1.8 _+2.1 _+1.9

Roger Smith ________________+1.3 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ +0.7 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.5 _+2.5 __0.0

wxdude64 __ (-1%) _________ +1.3 _+0.4 _+0.1 __ +1.3 _+1.8 _+0.9 __ --0.3 _+0.8 _--0.6 

RodneyS ___________________ +1.1 _+0.7 _+1.3 __ +1.9 _+0.6 _+1.0 __ +3.9 _+2.2 _--0.5

DonSutherland.1 ___________ +0.5 _+0.3 _+0.8 __ +0.8 _+0.2 _--0.3 __ +1.5 _+1.2 _--0.5

___ Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0

Brian5671 __ (-2%) _________ --0.5 __ 0.0 __0.0 __ +1.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0

__________________________________________________________________________

forecasts color coded for warmest and coldest. Consensus is median of 12 forecasts (mean of 6th, 7th ranked).

Normal is also colder than forecasts for ORD, ATL and PHX, tied coldest for NYC, BOS. 

(note edit on June 23 was to correct out of order predictions for DEN, PHX ... some posts had them out of order

and I just noticed this doing the seasonal max contest)

 

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Tracking how anomalies are developing, and projections ...

__________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

_9th ______ (8d) __________ +3.3 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +8.7 _+2.3 _+2.2 ___ +8.8 _+3.9 _--0.9

16th ______(15d) _________ +2.5 _+1.8 _+0.4 ___ +4.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___ +5.7 _+2.3 _--1.1

23rd ______(22d) _________ +1.2 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +5.2 _--0.5 _+0.1 ___ +3.9 _+1.4 _+0.2

 

_9th ______(p15d) ________+3.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +6.0 _+3.5 _+3.0 ___ +8.0 _+2.5 _--0.7

_16th ____ (p22d) ________ +1.5 _+1.0 _--0.5 ___ +2.5 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +4.0 _+2.5_ --0.5

 

_9th ______(p25d) ________+4.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +6.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +7.0 _+2.0 _--0.5

_16th ____ (p30d) ________ +0.5 __0.0 _--1.0 ___ +1.5 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _--0.5

_23rd ____ (p30d) ________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.5 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.5 _+2.0 __0.0

 

final anomalies __________ +2.3 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +5.0 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.6_ +1.2 _+0.9

 

______________________________________

(9th) _ A fairly warm start to the month except in the Pac NW which has been chilly and wet.

These trends not expected to change much next week, with a buildup of stronger warmth looking set for later in June. 

The cool regime in the Pac NW appears likely to trend towards subdued warmth later in the month. 

(16th) _ The forecasts began to unravel somewhat this past week due to the influence of coastal low pressure and a 

general trend towards cloudiness in eastern and central regions. This is now expected to be a persistent trend and the

shrinking positive anomalies may have trouble surviving in any form to end of the month in most cases. The southwest

should remain quite warm relative to normal, and the Pac NW will probably remain cooler than normal. 

(23rd) _ Past week trended a bit warmer than predicted but now looking somewhat cooler again to end of month, with the

western heat continuing but fading in the Pac NW after a few hot days here. 

(1st July) _ Anomalies have been posted and contest scored overnight. 

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Seasonal Max predictions

If you're not in this yet, post some numbers. I will also accept any edits of forecasts made. Not looking like our seasonal max is happening within the rest of June, so probably no real advantage for anyone posting now. 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Scotty Lightning ________ 102 __ 102 ___ 99 ___ 96 __ 103 __ 107 ___ 97 __ 117 __ 97

Roger Smith ____________ 102 __ 100 __ 101 ___99 __ 103 __ 107 __ 107 __ 120 __ 96

Tom ____________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___102 __ 102 __ 104 ___97 __ 119 __ 96

hudsonvalley21 _________101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 97 __ 101 __ 105 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 95

BKViking _______________ 101 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 103 __ 101 __ 103 ___ 99 __ 118 __ 95

DonSutherland1 ________ 101 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 104 ___ 97 __ 118 __ 94

wxdude64 ______________ 100 ___ 99 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 100 __ 105 __ 103 __ 117 __ 96

RodneyS _________________ 99 ___ 98 ___ 97 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 103 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 93

wxallannj _________________97 ___ 96 ___ 95 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 __ 116 __ 94

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Final Scoring for June 2020

This scoring is based on the end of month data with all stations now final (see anomaly tracker two posts back). 

Late penalties are small so there are no separate lines for raw scores and adjusted, the scores presented are after penalties, * for 1 pt deduction

and ** for 2 pt deductions. ... Raw scores for ORD were all below 60, so the scoring was adjusted to fit a minimum progression of 60, 55, 50 etc, 

however, if raw scores were higher than progression values (the lowest forecast) the raw scores were used. The ^ symbol is used

when scores are adjusted (^* means progression score reduced by late penalty). 

 

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTALS

 

RJay _______ (-2%) __________92**92**_88**_272 __ 59^* 69*_78**_ 206__ 478 __ 67*_82** 90**_ 239 _____ 717

RodneyS ___________________ 76 _ 78 _ 96 __ 250 __ 50^_ 78 _ 80 __ 208 __ 458 __ 94 _ 80 _ 72 __ 246 _____ 704

wxallannj ___________________96 _ 90 _ 86 __ 272 __ 35^_ 54 _ 80 __ 169 __ 441 __ 58 _ 98 _100 __ 256_____ 697

Jakkelwx ___________________84 _ 88 _ 80 __ 252 __ 55^_ 60 _ 78 __ 195 __ 447 __ 74 _ 84 _ 88 __ 246 _____ 693

BKViking ___________________82 _ 84 _100__ 266 __ 45^_ 60 _ 74 __ 179 __ 445 __ 50 _ 92 _ 92 __ 234 _____ 679

Tom _______________________ 84 _ 84 _ 92 __ 260 __ 25^_ 70 _ 70 __ 165 __ 425 __ 58 _ 88 _ 96 __ 242 _____ 667

 

___ Consensus ______________82 _ 84 _ 92 __ 258 __ 33^_ 60 _ 80 __ 173 __ 431 __ 58 _ 92 _ 90 __ 240 _____ 671

 

Scotty Lightning ____________84 _ 84 _ 90 __ 258 __ 30^_ 60 _ 70 __ 160 __ 418 __ 48 _ 96 _ 92 __ 236 _____ 654

DonSutherland.1 ___________ 64 _ 70 _ 86 __ 220 __ 20^_ 86 94 __ 200 __ 420 __ 58 _100 _ 72 __230 _____ 650

Roger Smith ________________80 _ 84 _ 80 __ 244 __ 15^_ 70 _ 80 __ 165 __ 409 __ 78 _ 74 _ 82 __ 234 _____ 643

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 80 _ 86 _ 98 __ 264 __ 12 _ 56 _ 70 __ 138 __ 402 __ 64 _ 82 _ 80 __ 226 _____ 628

wxdude64 __ (-1%) _________ 79*_71*_71* __ 221 __ 40^_ 53*_81*__174 __ 395 __ 22 _ 91*_ 69*__182 _____ 577 

___ Normal _________________54 _ 64 _ 70 __ 188 __ 00 _ 90 _100 __ 190 __ 378 __ 28 _ 76 _ 82 __ 186 _____ 564

Brian5671 __ (-2%) _________ 43*_63*_69* __ 175 __29^* 39*_78**__146 __ 321 __ 37*_65*_80**_ 182 _____ 503

_______________________________________________________________________

Extreme forecast report

_ six of nine qualify, four for high forecast(s) and two for low forecast.

DCA, ORD and PHX are wins for high forecasts, wxallannj takes DCA and RodneyS takes the other two.

NYC is a win for second highest forecast (RJay) and a loss for highest forecast wxallannj.

ATL and IAH are wins for low forecasts from Don Sutherland, Normal also gets wins for both.

BOS, PHX and SEA had best scores near consensus. 

____________________________________________________________________________

Annual update will be posted later today. As the scores here are fairly close together, only minor changes will occur in the annual scoring positions

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< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-June) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ___________________446_ 398_440 __1284 __413 _367_376__1156 __2440 __466_420_356_ 1242 ____3682

Don Sutherland.1 ___________360 _366_394 __1120 __371 _356_398 __1125 __2245 __ 330_418_368_ 1116 ____3361

RJay ______________________ 406 _401_355 __1162 __306 _321 _373 __1000 __2162 __365_415_354_ 1134 ____3296

hudsonvalley21 ____________325 _332 _405 __1062 __294 _322_367 __ 983 __2045 __365_483_359_ 1207 ____3252

wxallannj __________________364 _366 _385 __1115 __290 _311 _398 __ 999 __2114 __340_448_366_ 1154 ____3268

___ Consensus _____________330 _318 _391 __1039__294 _305_400 __ 999 __2038 __344_472_366_ 1182 _____3220

BKViking ___________________292 _292 _355 __ 939__335 _244 _376__ 955 __1894 __349_484_399_ 1232 _____ 3126

Tom _______________________ 332 _320 _356 __1008__254 _354 _353__ 961 __1969 __ 321_468_357_ 1146 ____3115

Brian5671 _________________ 356 _364 _354 __1074 __213 _323_379 __ 915 __1989 __224_403_392_ 1119 ____3008

Scotty Lightning ____________220 _202 _278 __ 700 __264 _295_420__ 979 __1679 __274 _470_418_ 1162 ____2841

 

wxdude64 __________________247 _229 _262 __ 738__240 _268 _406__ 914 __1652 __ 330 _427_280_ 1037 ____2689

Roger Smith ________________274 _269 _332 __ 875 __236 _381_324__ 941 __1816 __ 286 _252_216__754 ____ 2570

 

___ Normal _________________184 _172 _234 __ 590 __224 _304 _346__ 874 __1464 __246_424_ 388_ 1058 ____2522

JakkelWx _ (4/6) ____________168 _163 _238 __ 569 __210 _155 _290 __657 __1226 __236 _304 _168__708 ____1934

 

yoda _ (2/6) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686

rclab _ (1/6) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/6) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/6) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 __ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

Rhino16 _ (1/6) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178

==============================================================================

Extreme forecast standings

42 of 54 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 27 for warmest and 15 for coldest.

FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ etc ___ Standings to date

Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _____10 - 1

RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 ______9 - 1

Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ---- ______ 6 - 2

DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 _____ 5 - 0

RJay _____________ ---- __ ---- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 _______4 - 0

Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __---- __ ---- _______ 3 - 0

Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 ______ 4 - 1

Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 2 - 0

RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _______ 2 - 0

yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _______1 - 0

wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- _______ 1 - 0

Jakkelwx _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 1 - 0

wxallannj _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 _______ 1 - 1

================================================================================

BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to June

Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. 

Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus

achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months

RodneyS ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 _____ 3 _ Jan, Feb, May

DonSutherland.1 ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 _ Mar, Apr

RJay _______________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 _ June

wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

Tom ________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0

Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0

wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

_____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr

Jakkelwx ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

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