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General severe weather discussion


Quincy
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9 hours ago, TexMexWx said:

I just realized I haven't looked outside all day so I didn't realize it was actually clear out :lol: kind of thought it was another wimpy WAA source of instability lol

Looking at models, I feel like the highest threat could be *just* south/southeast of you and I, but with where the warm front sets up I will also be watching regardless. Also seems like DFW's largest recent hailstorms have been in March, so... there's that.

Well, the Dallas side of the Metroplex has had activity in virtually every which direction surrounding it, but not overhead.

Definitely luck of the draw, lol.

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Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
TXC121-250330-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.210325T0237Z-210325T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
937 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Denton County in north central Texas...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 937 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Flower Mound, moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Highland Village and Copper Canyon around 950 PM CDT.
  Corinth and Hickory Creek around 955 PM CDT.
  Lewisville, Lake Dallas, Lake Lewisville and Shady Shores around
  1000 PM CDT.
  The Colony and Hackberry around 1010 PM CDT.
  Little Elm and Cross Roads around 1015 PM CDT.
  Frisco around 1025 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Oak
Point, Lakewood Village and Westlake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3320 9684 3299 9701 3299 9721 3322 9700
      3322 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 222DEG 23KT 3303 9712

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.00IN
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12 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Well, the Dallas side of the Metroplex has had activity in virtually every which direction surrounding it, but not overhead.

Definitely luck of the draw, lol.

Yeah lol. I just checked back in to twitter and immediately was greeted by radar images of the TOR-warned supercell in Denton county, holy moly at that structure though.

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RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 49   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   950 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2021     THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS     * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM   UNTIL 400 AM CDT.     * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  

 

A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80   MPH POSSIBLE   SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5   INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE    

 

SUMMARY...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST   THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE INTENSE CLUSTERS   SHOULD EMANATE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TOWARDS THE   I-35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL TEXAS.  

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4 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I suspect not only will they extend the watch (set to expire in 15 minutes), but likely upgrade it to a Tornado Watch

 

Yep, you called it. Surprised it doesn't include Denton county, where there is literally a tornadic supercell-? Goes until 4 AM... not a fan.

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1059 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
KIMBLE AND SOUTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES...

At 1057 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
and damaging winds was located 8 miles northeast of Segovia, or 14
miles east of Junction, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Segovia and Yates Crossing.

This includes Interstate 10 between Mile Markers 464 and 473.
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  • 3 weeks later...

Theoretical chase target today is Eden, TX... basing on current obs I may adjust a bit further east toward Brady, but either way today looks primed for several strong supercells along the stalled frontal boundary in Central TX.

12z RAOBs from MAF and EPZ depicted 850-500mb lapse rates of 7.8-8.0 C/km, this combined with a strongly mixed PBL by late afternoon will create moderate CAPE profiles along the boundary, this thermo profile juxtaposed with elongated mid-level hodographs will result in supercells capable of very large hail shortly after initiation.  The tornado threat is very minimal today owing to very weak 0-3km shear.

Given the strong mid-level winds and relatively dry low to mid-levels this type of setup could yield a fairly beautiful high-based supercell or two...

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 93
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   350 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     The Edwards Plateau of central Texas

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter likely
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected from 4-5 pm CDT in
   areas southeast of San Angelo, and other storms may approach the Rio
   Grande near Del Rio later this evening.  The storm environment will
   favor splitting supercells capable of producing isolated very large
   hail (near or larger than tennis balls), as well as isolated
   damaging outflow gusts through late evening.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast
   of Junction TX to 35 miles west southwest of Del Rio TX. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.
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  • 3 weeks later...

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