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General severe weather discussion


Quincy
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1 hour ago, yoda said:

First moderate risk day in quite a long time... since mid June?  Wind driven... and it's a small mod risk 

ETA: never seen a hatched wind on a 15 percent before... on the new Day 2

I've noticed that SPC has included hatching on 15% wind risks, starting earlier this year, when there is potential for a major damaging wind event but there is a degree of uncertainty as to whether said threat will actually materialize (such as capping, etc.).

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PDS severe thunderstorm watch issued for portions of MN, ND, and SD. >95%/80% severe wind probabilities. 

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern and central Minnesota
     Southeast North Dakota
     Northern South Dakota

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 535
     PM until 100 AM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant
       gusts to 90 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible
     A couple tornadoes possible

   SUMMARY...An intense linear-type complex of storms is expected to
   evolve into a derecho this evening and produce
   widespread/significant damaging winds as it accelerates
   east-southeastward across the region. Isolated large hail is also
   possible, and a tornado risk cannot be ruled out, particularly near
   the warm front.   

   ...Guyer
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  • 4 weeks later...

Seems to be some potential in central and northern MN tomorrow provided we see recovery after tonight's MCS. Certainly an upper percentile strength LLJ in place for the time of year, although deep layer shear magnitude/orientation could be a bit better.

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  • 2 weeks later...

97mph wind gust reported in the MCS in SD tonight

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1119 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE BUNKER            44.25N 101.06W
08/27/2020  M97 MPH          STANLEY            SD   PUBLIC

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION. RADAR ESTIMATED
            TIME AND APPROXIMATE LOCATION.
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1112 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E HAYES               44.37N 101.00W
08/27/2020  M104 MPH         STANLEY            SD   PUBLIC

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.
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  • 2 months later...

First tornado warning for Missouri for this Saturday evening episode.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
620 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 645 PM CST.  
      
* AT 620 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER SENECA, OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAXTER SPRINGS,  
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  NEOSHO...                         SENECA...  
  GRANBY...                         DIAMOND...  
  WENTWORTH...                      RITCHEY...  
  RACINE...                          

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  • 2 months later...
  • 4 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Severe T-storm watch for DFW up until midnight. Hodographs look really nice but there's little to no instability here, so overall I think it's a limited threat, but could still see some instances of damaging wind. I have to imagine that the theoretical "boom" scenario of today would play out perhaps in a similar way to the Arlington, TX tornado late last year. Maybe get a spin-up that takes advantage of that helicity/shear, but I still find it unlikely overall, and CAPE might be lower today than it was even on that day. Maybe further southwest of us in central TX has higher tornado potential.

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3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Enhanced risk coming for parts of east Texas.

Just outside the ENH area but def more concerened relative to last few risks. The mornings with clear blue skies are always the most worriesome for me!

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4 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Just outside the ENH area but def more concerened relative to last few risks. The mornings with clear blue skies are always the most worriesome for me!

I just realized I haven't looked outside all day so I didn't realize it was actually clear out :lol: kind of thought it was another wimpy WAA source of instability lol

Looking at models, I feel like the highest threat could be *just* south/southeast of you and I, but with where the warm front sets up I will also be watching regardless. Also seems like DFW's largest recent hailstorms have been in March, so... there's that.

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   Mesoscale Discussion 0242
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

   Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 242022Z - 242245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated this evening
   across western portions of central and north-central TX. Threat for
   large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will
   accompany this storms as they move northeastward into more of
   central and north-central TX. Trends are being monitored for
   possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a weak low just
   southeast of BWD in central TX. A warm front extends eastward from
   this low, demarcated well by both the 56 deg F isodrosotherm and the
   edge of the cloud shield in visible satellite imagery. A surface
   trough also extends southwestward from this low before arcing back
   northwestward south of SJT into the TX Permian Basin. 

   The air mass south of the warm front also continues to destabilize,
   particularly over the TX Hill County in the vicinity of the low.
   Recent mesoanalysis suggests MLCAPE around 500 J/kg near the low,
   increasing to over 1000 J/kg over in the region between Del Rio and
   San Antonio. Continued destabilization is expected as the warm front
   continue to move northward. 

   At the same time, persistent low-level convergence in the vicinity
   of the low and its associated surface trough is expected to result
   in eventual convective initiation. Visible satellite imagery has
   shown several attempts at deep convection, although none have
   succeeded thus far. Current attempt is underway over McCulloch
   County. In addition to this mesoscale forcing, large-scale forcing
   for ascent is gradually increasing across the region as a shortwave
   trough approaches from the west.

   Once convective initiation is realized, the environment is favorable
   for maturation into supercells. Primary hazard throughout the
   evening will be large hail while some damaging downburst winds are
   also possible. Gradually strengthening low-level could also result
   in a tornado or two.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 03/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

image.png

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