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Severe Weather May 13-15th, 2020


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3 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

I guess today's severe weather will go here? Looks like an active day with numerous storms likely. Low-level shear doesn't look particularly strong for tornadoes (bulk shear is also only in the 20-30 kt range), but with multiple boundaries in play across Oklahoma would not be surprised at a mesoscale accident producing a spinup or two. 

Just updated the thread title!

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Considered going to C/S OK today. But driving 1300 miles the previous two days has made me not want to chase a 2% day in OK that’s probably going to be a QPF bomb.

Yesterday wasn’t too bad, chased until around 10:30pm. Got a beautiful LP supercell north of Emporia, KS followed by numerous funnel clouds/possible tornadoes in northern Lyon county toward/after sunset, went a bit East and got hit by 70-80mph winds from the cluster that formed. Only really got a decent picture of the LP storm, everything else had low-resolution due to darkness or just wasn’t worth taking a picture of.

994A0A92-2833-49E7-9CBC-E609B4E44789.jpeg

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Heading toward northeastern Colorado. Not the most impressive setup, but wind profiles along with modest instability might support a supercell or two. 

Not playing with that junk in Oklahoma. Deep layer wind profiles are hideous for mid-May. 

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What a totally awful and forgettable three day period this ended up being.

5/13: Weak shear, and strong CIN wrecked most updrafts between 20-00z... things picked up a little bit toward/after 00z with some okay structure in SW OK.

5/14: Again weak shear, and some mid-level subsidence wrecked most updrafts. A few updrafts were shortly pretty, toward 00z a few small, bizarre looking storms acquired weak rotation and produced brief funnels/possible tornadoes.

5/15: Weak shear and a surging outflow boundary totally ended any legit potential today. 
 

Looking like things are going to be quite boring in the central and southern plains the next week or so with a ridge setting up shop across the region. Perhaps the pattern begins to change toward next weekend, with potentially similar mesoscale-type setups.

FWIW tomorrow in SW IA/SE NEB does not necessarily look awful. Biggest question will be in regard to moisture quality/instability. Low-level hodographs will be very impressive with strong veering. If trends continue to look up, might drive out there and see what Iowa can do.

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