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Severe Weather May 13-15th, 2020


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HRRR still only shows 25-30kt shear at CI, but it does increase to 30-40kt by 22-23z.

It will be interesting to see if a storm can manage to form between GAG and DDC. There hasn’t been much CAM support for that, but the environment would be conditionally favorable for a discrete supercell. Otherwise it looks like a sloppy storm mode with rapid clustering.

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I've been lurking for a while now.  I know very little about weather but it's fascinating to me.  I live on 412 west of Enid, Ok 15 miles.  

 

Just thought I'd give you guys an update from here.  It's very wet, and cloudy as of 9:40 AM.  

Edit:  Still the same at 11:20.  Doesn't seem like a typical severe weather day to me.

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2 hours ago, Quincy said:

HRRR still only shows 25-30kt shear at CI, but it does increase to 30-40kt by 22-23z.

It will be interesting to see if a storm can manage to form between GAG and DDC. There hasn’t been much CAM support for that, but the environment would be conditionally favorable for a discrete supercell. Otherwise it looks like a sloppy storm mode with rapid clustering.

Yeah, starting to look like mainly wind damage threat today.

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8 hours ago, NWOkie_124 said:

I've been lurking for a while now.  I know very little about weather but it's fascinating to me.  I live on 412 west of Enid, Ok 15 miles.  

 

Just thought I'd give you guys an update from here.  It's very wet, and cloudy as of 9:40 AM.  

Edit:  Still the same at 11:20.  Doesn't seem like a typical severe weather day to me.

Welcome aboard.  Follow the threads and you will gradually learn a good deal about svr weather.  We  have some good professional mets and knowledgeable posters on here.

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3 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Welcome aboard.  Follow the threads and you will gradually learn a good deal about svr weather.  We  have some good professional mets and knowledgeable posters on here.

Thank you.  I look forward to learning more.

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A few areas to consider today...

The most obvious seems to be southeastern Kansas. With strong/extreme instability and modest shear, I’m not sure if we’ll see a clustered mess or a slow-moving supercell just before 00z. It could go either way. 

The dryline/front intersection out west looks interesting, but large T/Td spreads and marginal shear could lead to junk as well. 

Keeping an eye on Colorado and Nebraska as well for good measure. 

 

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Seeing as to how I live in eastern KS, I’ll be out chasing today. Forecast soundings are impressive: extreme instability, impressive low-level moisture and CAPE, along with large low-level hodographs. Shear is normal to the boundary, which would generally favor supercells *but* bulk shear today is again on the marginal end of what you want, so things could get messy pretty quickly, or a storm or two could stay discrete for a couple hours of chasing fun. The amount of trees in eastern half of KS sometimes make it a little annoying to chase here. But nevertheless I expect much more out of any sustained storm than I expected yesterday in the E TX PH/W OK at the same time. We’ll see. 
 

Not superbly confident in CI prior to sunset. All other CAMs aside from the HRRR/HRRRv4/TTU-WRF show initiation after sunset. 

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13 minutes ago, pbrussell said:

Iowa’s blowing up 

Have definitely seen what seem to be some supercell structures on radar there, but overall the storm mode in Iowa seems messy right now.

Obviously today is not a slam-dunk severe weather day, being only a slight risk, but if anything the most intense storm near New Virginia, IA looks to be a possible HP supercell given its radar signature.

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Stay safe NW Okie

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
1207 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
  SOUTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  
* UNTIL 100 AM CDT.  
  
* AT 1207 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ISABELLA,  
  MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT   
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  ENID, FAIRVIEW, WAUKOMIS, LAHOMA, RINGWOOD, DRUMMOND, CLEO SPRINGS,  
  AMES, MENO, ORIENTA AND ISABELLA.  
  

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7 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Stay safe NW Okie

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
1207 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
  SOUTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  
* UNTIL 100 AM CDT.  
  
* AT 1207 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ISABELLA,  
  MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT   
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  ENID, FAIRVIEW, WAUKOMIS, LAHOMA, RINGWOOD, DRUMMOND, CLEO SPRINGS,  
  AMES, MENO, ORIENTA AND ISABELLA.  
  

I appreciate the heads up.  We never did get anything here at my house.

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I guess today's severe weather will go here? Looks like an active day with numerous storms likely. Low-level shear doesn't look particularly strong for tornadoes (bulk shear is also only in the 20-30 kt range), but with multiple boundaries in play across Oklahoma would not be surprised at a mesoscale accident producing a spinup or two. 

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