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Severe Weather May 7th 2020


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Not looking like too amazing of a setup right now. Obs show upper 70s temperatures with ~50 d/Tds across SW OK, and it’s not much better to the west in Texas.

Likewise, most models show 60 to low 60s dewpoints advecting into the area by go time. Seems like a relatively high probability that a highly photogenic, high-based supercell goes up somewhere in W TX/SW OK this afternoon/evening. Giant hail will be the main risk with any isolated supercell before a large MCS forms along the cold front late tonight; might be a small non-zero risk of a tornado, which would also probably be photogenic thanks to high LCLs if one were to occur.

FWIW, forecast soundings do indicate massive CINH across most of W TX/SW OK, so I’m not exactly sure how any convection is going to explode or even sustain. 

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Models have also been trending toward less moisture return. HRRR had lower 60s dews reaching to I-40, while now it has CDS struggling to hold around 60F through CI time.

Cloud-cover is finally moving out of the eastern panhandle/western Oklahoma region, at least.

It looks like there might just be enough moisture in place by peak heating. Wind profiles stronger favor supercells, so as long as a robust updraft can form, it should go spinning into the night... or aleast for a few hours near/along the Red River. 

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Enhanced Risk issued for a small area in and around Oklahoma City. The more impactful storms (in terms of population impacted) may be - cluster of evening/overnight storms with large hail and damaging winds.

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STWatch issued just west of where SPC put the ENH risk in its 2000 SPC OTLK -- 40/40 on wind probs and 70/70 on hail probs

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0170.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 170
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   445 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southwest Oklahoma
     Northwest Texas

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph possible

   SUMMARY...A couple intense supercells will likely develop along the
   portion of the Red River in the southeast Texas Panhandle and spread
   east-southeast near the northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma
   border. Very large hail and isolated significant severe wind are the
   main hazards.

 

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1 hour ago, Quincy said:

Based on short term CAMs, convective temperatures (91-92F) are almost reached near/just NW of CDS and this is supported by agitated cu fields east of AMA. 

Out chasing today, Quincy?

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What is it with those SW TX storms that always seem to do their own thing in May? If I recall correctly, there were some instances of it last May and I'm sure in some years past as well. Currently a storm east of Fort Stockton which is SVR warned with TOR possible mentioned

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46 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Getting into position near CDS now. 

The supercell you’re probably on is pretty impressive on radar, even some weak rotation. Ground visuals don’t look like they’ve been all that great just yet though.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
620 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN HARMON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  HARDEMAN COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 620 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF  
  GOODLETT, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
  
  HAZARD...THREE INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.   
           EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS,   
           SIDING, AND VEHICLES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  QUANAH, CHILLICOTHE, ELDORADO, GOODLETT AND COPPER BREAKS STATE  
  PARK.  
  

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Now initiation is expected as predicted in nw OK shortly and will move southeast to threaten Oklahoma City environs later tonight.


   Mesoscale Discussion 0550
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CDT Thu May 07 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest Kansas...Northwest Oklahoma...Northeast
   Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 072343Z - 080045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 01z.
   Hail and wind are expected with convection this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Agitated cu field is slowly expanding in areal coverage
   across portions of southwestern KS, extending north along sharpening
   cold front. This is partly due to low-level moisture advancing
   rapidly north across western OK into southwest KS (surface dew point
   is now 54F at DDC). Mid-level heights will continue falling across
   the central Plains this evening and large-scale forcing for ascent
   should aid convective development along the frontal zone over the
   next few hours. Once convection develops, an upward-evolving
   thunderstorm cluster is expected to propagate southeast along a warm
   front that is currently draped from southwest KS into southeast OK.
   With time, LLJ will increase markedly into central OK late this
   evening and a more expansive southeast-moving MCS should spread
   toward the Oklahoma City metro. Large hail will be common with
   supercells and damaging wind threat should increase as MCS becomes
   more linear in nature.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 05/07/2020
 

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Rather extensive overnight MCS event still ecpected.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 171
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   740 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southern Kansas
     Western and central Oklahoma
     Northeast Texas Panhandle

   * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 740 PM
     until 300 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Several supercells will likely develop, initially across
   southwest Kansas and then farther south across the northeast Texas
   Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. These severe storms should
   consolidate into a broader MCS towards central Oklahoma later
   tonight.

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3 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Rather extensive overnight MCS event still ecpected.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 171

 

The first stronger storm is getting going near Dodge City KS

down in Texas, this is a 3d look into the BWER of this large storm

tTmG7s9.jpg

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