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Upstate/Eastern New York


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15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I fully agree that the average person still completely blows it when attempting to interpret a forecast.  I saw some similar posts where people just assume that a tornado will be coming through at some set time tomorrow.  These are the reasons I never became a pro forecaster, you work so hard only to be have idiots misunderstand your forecast and then ridicule like you were wrong and they were right.  It must be so frustrating.  

It drives me insane when people say that the weatherman are always wrong. "It's the only job in the world where you can be wrong all the time, and still keep your job". I always defend them, but literally 95% of people believe this. 

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MCV associated with current convection over Illinois will push a
series of weak fronts through our region on Thursday...and this
will lead to some showers and strong to severe storms. Damaging wind
gusts main threat...but backing winds blo 4kft could provide enough
shear for isolated tornado. MOST prone time for severe weather will
be from 2 PM til 10 PM Thursday...although its possible that
convection could be problematic before that time. Far western New
York remains in a slight risk area as defined by the Storm
Prediction Center... with the remainder of the forecast area in a
marginal risk area for severe weather.

Strong convection Thursday evening weakens to scattered showers
overnight.
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SPC discussion:

 There is some
   concern that this precipitation and/or cloud debris may limit
   diurnal destabilization across eastern OH into parts of western
   PA/NY. Regardless, modestly enhanced (30-40 kt) mid-level flow
   coupled with even weak destabilization along/ahead of the front
   should prove sufficient for storm organization by early Thursday
   afternoon. Multicells and small bowing line segments should be the
   primary storm mode given the linear nature of the low-level forcing
   mechanism (front), but an embedded supercell or two cannot be ruled
   out with 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear expected.

   Strong to damaging winds should be the main threat as low-level
   lapse rates modestly steepen ahead of the morning storms/clouds.
   Some enhancement to the low-level flow suggests a brief tornado
   cannot be ruled out either, mainly across eastern OH and western
   PA/NY vicinity. These strong to severe storms should quickly weaken
   into central PA/NY by Thursday evening as low-level moisture and
   related instability decrease with eastward extent.
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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

SPC discussion:


 There is some
   concern that this precipitation and/or cloud debris may limit
   diurnal destabilization across eastern OH into parts of western
   PA/NY. Regardless, modestly enhanced (30-40 kt) mid-level flow
   coupled with even weak destabilization along/ahead of the front
   should prove sufficient for storm organization by early Thursday
   afternoon. Multicells and small bowing line segments should be the
   primary storm mode given the linear nature of the low-level forcing
   mechanism (front), but an embedded supercell or two cannot be ruled
   out with 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear expected.

   Strong to damaging winds should be the main threat as low-level
   lapse rates modestly steepen ahead of the morning storms/clouds.
   Some enhancement to the low-level flow suggests a brief tornado
   cannot be ruled out either, mainly across eastern OH and western
   PA/NY vicinity. These strong to severe storms should quickly weaken
   into central PA/NY by Thursday evening as low-level moisture and
   related instability decrease with eastward extent.

Buckle up. Tomorrow could be nice and active!

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38 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Looks like a pretty thick cloud deck in WNY. Wonder if that will limit severe potential there later. BUF still bullish per the SWS issued this morning. 

Conversely, full sun here at Chaumont with a roaring south wind. Hoping to see some storms roll across the lake later. 

Yeah full cloud cover here. Not looking good. 

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19 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Starting to see the cloud deck thinning out over central Ohio.  I’m thinking that clearing keeps pushing our way and burning off with the midday sun.  If we can start getting some sun by noonish should provide us a 2 hour window to destabilize things further.  
 

237FCF37-6031-4C46-BB02-8F1DE16ACF77.jpeg

Looks like all of Erie County about to get round one...just heard a good boom of thunder...

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We really want full sunshine until this afternoon. These smalls storms might mess up this afternoons potential. 

Maybe, or it helps to destabilize the atmosphere if this line gets through fast enough and sunshine breaks out...but im with you i think this will dampen the opportunity.

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...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon...

While some showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
western counties later this morning and during the midday...the
ingredients will come together for strong to severe thunderstorms
later this afternoon into the evening hours. The greatest severe
weather threat will come from damaging wind gusts, although there
will be the risk for tornadic activity...particularly across the
Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes region.
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9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Maybe, or it helps to destabilize the atmosphere if this line gets through fast enough and sunshine breaks out...but im with you i think this will dampen the opportunity.

If the first batch can soak the ground a bit and then we break into a few hours of sun that would be the ideal setup.  Would love to see the DP's jump into the upper 60's to 70 with a little extra low level juice.  It's a risky scenario though, the first round of showers will definitely steal some CAPE and leave the lower levels slightly more stable.  

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  Mesoscale Discussion 1240
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161618Z - 161815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across
   eastern OH, western PA, and far western NY over the next few hours.
   Conditions are favorable for some severe thunderstorms, with
   damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. A tornado or two is also
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over far southern
   Lower MI, with a cold front extending back south-southwestward
   through western OH and southern IN. A pre-frontal trough also arcs
   eastward and then southwest across OH. Some deep cumulus has been
   noted in the vicinity of this pre-frontal trough over the past half
   hour. Deeper cloud billows have also been noted across eastern OH
   and into western PA, where air mass destabilization is occurring
   amid filtered daytime heating and low-level moisture advection. 

   Expectation is destabilization and forcing for ascent along the two
   surface boundaries (augmented by ascent attendant to low-amplitude
   shortwave trough) to persist, resulting in scattered thunderstorm
   development from eastern OH into western PA. Enhanced low-level flow
   throughout the eastern periphery of the shortwave trough will
   support moderate low-level shear and the potential for a few
   stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps even tornado or two. 

   The best overlap between ongoing storms and the enhanced low-level
   flow is anticipated over northwest PA and far western NY. Some
   interaction with the warm front is also possible across western NY.
   Damaging wind gusts remain the primary severe threat, but these
   conditions lead to a relatively greater tornado potential in this
   area.

E7F00691-B81C-47FF-B8D5-B48441FE45FD.gif

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1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I think this current light rain is screwing everything up for later this afternoon. Every time the rain slows or stops it picks right back up again.

Yep this ones done for. Nothing more than some steady rain today with an occasional clap of thunder and lightning. Not enough time to break into any sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere. Oh well at least we’re getting some rain.

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