Upstate/Eastern New York

[Syrmax]

39 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Snowing here too. Could this be the last snowfall of the year? lol

There's always June.

[BuffaloWeather]

Tuesday and beyond, recent guidance packages hint that temperatures
will quickly return to normal and possibly much above normal.
Climate prediction center (CPC) even shows this in the 8-14 day
outlook. So much for spring, it looks like we`re headed right to
summer like warmth.

[LakeEffectKing]

Heavy snow in Caz.  Nearing an inch.

[vortmax]

46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Tuesday and beyond, recent guidance packages hint that temperatures
will quickly return to normal and possibly much above normal.
Climate prediction center (CPC) even shows this in the 8-14 day
outlook. So much for spring, it looks like we`re headed right to
summer like warmth.

Ugh. Spring first please.

[winter_rules]

Getting home to 32° and snow.  Lawn turning white again.  Today makes 5 consecutive days with snow in the air, with 4 of those days having snow on the ground!!   Crazy for mid-May. 

[Flying MXZ]

20.0° when I left for work at 5:30.  May have dropped into the teens on May 13th, pretty impressive.  Only a dusting of snow at my place last night.

[cny rider]

47 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said:

20.0° when I left for work at 5:30.  May have dropped into the teens on May 13th, pretty impressive.  Only a dusting of snow at my place last night.

About 1/2 inch on the ground,  25F  when I headed off for work on my bicycle.

Stunningly beautiful sunrise over the snow covered ground and trees.

But yeah.....May 13, no bueno.

 

 

[DeltaT13]

I forgot to turn off and secure some outdoor water hoses and had a few blowouts last night ..so stupid of me   That’s time and money I didn’t want to spend digging and fixing shit.
 

 Worst may ever 

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

I forgot to turn off and secure some outdoor water hoses and had a few blowouts last night ..so stupid of me   That’s time and money I didn’t want to spend digging and fixing shit.
 

 Worst may ever 

Yeah and we go from winter to summer in about 7 minutes...if that doenst bring an increase in viruses (other than Covid) I don't know what will

[winter_rules]

23° this morning. That makes 11 straight days of lows in the 20s in May. Several of those days were in the low 20s and yesterday actually dropped to 19° for a short period of time. 

[BuffaloWeather]

22 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah and we go from winter to summer in about 7 minutes...if that doenst bring an increase in viruses (other than Covid) I don't know what will

Models have really been SOOO terrible. The warm up looks muted now. Looks like average temps the next 2 weeks which isn't terrible. Should be around 65-70 for highs. As long as get some sun it will feel nice. However, it looks like it will be an active pattern. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Models have really been SOOO terrible. The warm up looks muted now. Looks like average temps the next 2 weeks which isn't terrible. Should be around 65-70 for highs. As long as get some sun it will feel nice. However, it looks like it will be an active pattern. 

65 to 70 is PERFECT weather to me. It could be those temps all summer with an occasional day of 80s thrown in there for pool/beach weather.

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Models have really been SOOO terrible. The warm up looks muted now. Looks like average temps the next 2 weeks which isn't terrible. Should be around 65-70 for highs. As long as get some sun it will feel nice. However, it looks like it will be an active pattern. 

Models were great when they predicted unrelenting cold from April through yesterday...Not looking so good for the big warm-up though.  That said, going from a typical range of 20's-40's for 6 weeks to 40's-60's is certainly a big improvement.  

[DeltaT13]

Kind of interested in the tropical system that comes up the East coast early next week.  The GFS keeps toying with the idea of a capture by the low that rolls through the lakes on Monday Tuesday.  If these two phased up someone on the East coast, and maybe as far North as us, is going to get some serious rain.  The weird weather continues.   

[Buffalo Bumble]

For the stats nerds...BUF is -9.8 deg for May as of yesterday.  All but one day this month has been below average.  Current streak of at least -7 extends back to May 4th.  It would probably take the torch of all torches at this point to finish the month at or above normal.  Looked promising on the modeling yesterday, today not so much.

Some of the other northeast threads are complaining about sitting at -4 or -5 departures for the month. They've got nothing on us...

[cny rider]

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Kind of interested in the tropical system that comes up the East coast early next week.  The GFS keeps toying with the idea of a capture by the low that rolls through the lakes on Monday Tuesday.  If these two phased up someone on the East coast, and maybe as far North as us, is going to get some serious rain.  The weird weather continues.   

Keeping a wary eye on that situation.

We have had horrible flooding here in the past from these PRE systems.

The ground is already saturated and lakes and rivers are up high.

 

[Buffalo Bumble]

Stacked low pressure across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday
will very slowly slide southeast across Ohio on Monday. This will
push a warm front across our area that will then stall out and
become the focal point for what might be several rounds of rain
(possibly moderate to heavy at times) through at least Monday, and
potentially beyond. Upper low becomes completely cutoff by Tuesday
as it settles across the east-central U.S., and looks now as if it
may linger right through the upcoming week. This will keep at least
the threat of showers going through mid week if this trend
continues. On a less important note, this may also put the kibosh on
the above average temperatures that looked possible just a few days
ago.

Now, to the more important potential for heavy rain. The best shot
appears to be later Sunday through Monday night at this time,
possibly longer as tropical moisture gets pulled in from the
Atlantic as the subtropical low tracks northward. This is favorable
for a predecessor rain event (PRE). A PRE consists of meso and/or
subsynoptic scale regions of heavy rainfall that occur well in
advance of recurving tropical cyclones over the eastern third of the
U.S. All this said, the big question is where exactly this axis of
heavy rain sets up. This remains uncertain at this time being still
a good distance down the road, however as mentioned above, the
possibility continues to look more favorable with the past few model
runs. Some of the things to consider are: Does the
tropical/subtropical system curve out into the Atlantic earlier
allowing the cold core system to track further east, then the
heaviest rain could end up being outside our region, and/or to a
lesser extent. This would likely speed up the progression of the
cold core low, which would limit residence time as well. However,
models have continued to trend with a further west track of this
system, so this will be something to continue to watch in the coming
days. Confidence is increasing for the potential of a few, to
possibly several inches of rainfall with this set up, which would
likely produce flooding if this scenario came to fruition. Will
place a mention in the HWO at this time. The upper level energy that
will eventually mature into this potentially impactful system still
resides off the west coast of British Columbia, so there is
obviously plenty of time for things to change. Nonetheless, as
stated this will need to be monitored closely going forward. Stay
tuned.

[BuffaloWeather]

21 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Stacked low pressure across the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday
will very slowly slide southeast across Ohio on Monday. This will
push a warm front across our area that will then stall out and
become the focal point for what might be several rounds of rain
(possibly moderate to heavy at times) through at least Monday, and
potentially beyond. Upper low becomes completely cutoff by Tuesday
as it settles across the east-central U.S., and looks now as if it
may linger right through the upcoming week. This will keep at least
the threat of showers going through mid week if this trend
continues. On a less important note, this may also put the kibosh on
the above average temperatures that looked possible just a few days
ago.

Now, to the more important potential for heavy rain. The best shot
appears to be later Sunday through Monday night at this time,
possibly longer as tropical moisture gets pulled in from the
Atlantic as the subtropical low tracks northward. This is favorable
for a predecessor rain event (PRE). A PRE consists of meso and/or
subsynoptic scale regions of heavy rainfall that occur well in
advance of recurving tropical cyclones over the eastern third of the
U.S. All this said, the big question is where exactly this axis of
heavy rain sets up. This remains uncertain at this time being still
a good distance down the road, however as mentioned above, the
possibility continues to look more favorable with the past few model
runs. Some of the things to consider are: Does the
tropical/subtropical system curve out into the Atlantic earlier
allowing the cold core system to track further east, then the
heaviest rain could end up being outside our region, and/or to a
lesser extent. This would likely speed up the progression of the
cold core low, which would limit residence time as well. However,
models have continued to trend with a further west track of this
system, so this will be something to continue to watch in the coming
days. Confidence is increasing for the potential of a few, to
possibly several inches of rainfall with this set up, which would
likely produce flooding if this scenario came to fruition. Will
place a mention in the HWO at this time. The upper level energy that
will eventually mature into this potentially impactful system still
resides off the west coast of British Columbia, so there is
obviously plenty of time for things to change. Nonetheless, as
stated this will need to be monitored closely going forward. Stay
tuned.

The real warmth looks delayed but I think it still comes.

[TugHillMatt]

4 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Models were great when they predicted unrelenting cold from April through yesterday...Not looking so good for the big warm-up though.  That said, going from a typical range of 20's-40's for 6 weeks to 40's-60's is certainly a big improvement.  

40s have literally been the theme since November. Going on 7 months now! haha

[BuffaloWeather]

Average High/Low today is 66/47 

[BuffaloWeather]

Departure from normal for Buffalo, such a crazy year. Dec-Mar 2020 has to be one of the largest departures ever recorded. 

May: -1.5

June: -1.1

July: +2.9

Aug: +.7

Sep: + 3.0

Oct: +1.5

Nov: -4.9

Dec: +3.2

Jan: +8.1

Feb: +3.1

Mar: +7.3

April: -2.5

12 month Average: +1.65

[Thinksnow18]

51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Departure from normal for Buffalo, such a crazy year. Dec-Mar 2020 has to be one of the largest departures ever recorded. 

May: -1.5

June: -1.1

July: +2.9

Aug: +.7

Sep: + 3.0

Oct: +1.5

Nov: -4.9

Dec: +3.2

Jan: +8.1

Feb: +3.1

Mar: +7.3

April: -2.5

12 month Average: +1.65

And to think it wasn't even a strong El Nino...it appears to me there are many other factors than there used to be influencing our weather.

[vortmax]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Average High/Low today is 66/47 

I think Roc his mid-60s today...low was closer to mid-30s.

[BuffaloWeather]

Enhanced outlook for Eastern NY 5% tornado

[wolfie09]

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms may produce moderate to
heavy rain Friday afternoon.

There is the potential for a prolonged period of significant rain
Sunday through Monday night when several inches of rain could be
experienced.

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

7 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms may produce moderate to
heavy rain Friday afternoon.

There is the potential for a prolonged period of significant rain
Sunday through Monday night when several inches of rain could be
experienced.

 

06z GFS would bring historic flooding to BUF verbatim. 7” and counting ... this on an already saturated ground. Obviously highly unlikley we get that much but I don’t think I have ever seen that much QPF modeled before. 6” of this falls in like 24-36 hours. 

[LakeEffectKing]

4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

06z GFS would bring historic flooding to BUF verbatim. 7” and counting ... this on an already saturated ground. Obviously highly unlikley we get that much but I don’t think I have ever seen that much QPF modeled before. 6” of this falls in like 24-36 hours. 

Impressive.....modeled sounding for the BUF area late Sun. night/ early Mon. morning look a bit moist...

 

[vortmax]

Crazy scenario for sure....

Any thoughts on the severe potential today? I see much of CNY is under an enhanced risk.

Looks like some decent clearing will reach NY before the CF passage...

[Thinksnow18]

43 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Crazy scenario for sure....

Any thoughts on the severe potential today? I see much of CNY is under an enhanced risk.

Looks like some decent clearing will reach NY before the CF passage...

Always the worst piece of the puzzle. 

[vortmax]

Breaking into the warm sector quite nicely now...