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May Discobs 2020


George BM
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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Nearby weather station shows a low of 29.5F.  Currently 32F, with frost.  This has been a truly memorable stretch of weather.  I would bet, historic. 

Those days of chasing tumbleweeds on scorched Earth are done for you. For your sanity I'm glad you made the move. For the comedy I'm a little sad.

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1 hour ago, snowfan said:

And, the 0Z GFS shifted backwards with that %$#@!@# BDCF

Starting today thru next wed at DCA......69, 67, 84 ,81, 67, 66, 69, 76

At BWI…….67, 65, 83, 79, 65, 63, 67, 73

I posted about this last week.  I can't remember a single spring where we didn't get a couple of backdoor cold fronts.

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3 hours ago, nj2va said:

The craptastic spring looks to continue on guidance now after we finally see some warmth Friday and Saturday.
 

GFS has highs in the 50s Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.  
 

Just awful. 

It's a goddamn disaster. We are going to fully waste most of May when we should be in 70s and low 80s with low humidity on this crap.

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3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

It's a goddamn disaster. We are going to fully waste most of May when we should be in 70s and low 80s with low humidity on this crap.

Before jumping off the ledge go enjoy the next 4 days of nice weather.  Go on a bender from Sunday to Wednesday and by that time it will be warm again. Cheers!

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While it does look crappy from Sunday thru Wednesday, early summer returns right after. And how crappy the weather is depends on if the Atlantic AOI even forms or not. 0/70 has a high chance of busting.

Edit: not "with a vengeance" but overall warm weather just like friday returns after Wednesday.

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14 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Before jumping off the ledge go enjoy the next 4 days of nice weather.  Go on a bender from Sunday to Wednesday and by that time it will be warm again. Cheers!

It's possible, you know, to make a comment on something and not need to characterized as being on the ledge. Jeebus.

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10 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

While it does look crappy from Sunday thru Wednesday, summer looks to return with a vengeance right after. And how crappy the weather is depends on if the Atlantic AOI even forms or not. 0/70 has a high chance of busting.

Why is around 80 summer returning "with a vengeance"?

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17 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Why is around 80 summer returning "with a vengeance"?

Must be fun to deny reality instead of dealing with the fallout of our situation. I accept that it's cold but where did the heat go?

It found it's way to someone else. The amount of heat entering the system never changes. At least not to a measurable degree right now. How much is retained is based on the daily AGI which is only ever increasing because sitting in front of a PC/Phone all day is somehow the gold standard of living a fulfilling life.

Back in the day people were eager to die for ideals and dreams. Life is a dream. Make it your canvas.

and then you have this Corona-panic garbage. Taking risks and following your ideals should be the motivating force in your life. Living just to stay alive is the methodology of the ant farm.

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12 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

It's possible, you know, to make a comment on something and not need to characterized as being on the ledge. Jeebus.

Sorry it was meant to be sarcastic.  I am sick of the May disaster as well.  Looking forward to some warm days.  And who knows maybe the Models are out to lunch and the boundary sets up farther north.

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4 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

Thru the first 12 days of this month I have set 7 new records, all either new 'cool max' or record overnight lows. 7. That is crazy. Running a -9.3 for the month currently. 

Can you imagine a -9.3 departure for the first 12 days of February!

Sunny and 64.  Going to savor the next few days.

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20 hours ago, yoda said:

I dunno... 12z GFS 2mT would suggest that the BDCF is somewhere nearby early next week

ETA:  did you forget the word like? 

 

    sure did forget the critical word 'like' in there.     Ugh.     Definitely looks now like some form of an eastern trough early next week and (depending on exact location/orientation) potentially some unpleasant weather.     Still looks much warmer for the latter part of next week, although that is contingent upon said trough being able to depart.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, nj2va said:

More good news.  While pivotal only shows the 6 hour increments of Euro, the 12z Euro looks to get DC into the low 70s Sunday.  

Weekend is looking good. Euro has a cutoff that hangs around almost all next week though.

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Mount Holly's thoughts on early next week...

By Sunday, high pressure builds offshore of New England, then the front to our south will begin returning northward as an area of low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes and toward the Mid Atlantic. However, the models diverge in how they handle the low. Models differ in how fast they bring the low into the area and how fast the low exits. The GFS brings it in and exits it faster, while the the ECMWF is slower. As the low pressure and associated frontal boundaries affect the area, an extended period of rainfall can be expected. So there will be a chance of rain from at least Sunday, through Monday night, but the chance of rain could last into through Tuesday night.

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6 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Let's hope. This has been really unreal to have it this cool for this long.

Of course my brain has been wondering if this has anything to do with it...but I'm sure it's not that simple, lol (Although the day with the coldest high temperature and the record low we broke on the 9tb did come at the end of solar cycles...but of course, tiny sample size, I guess!)

Screenshot_20200513-174023_Chrome.jpg

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Of course my brain has been wondering if this has anything to do with it...but I'm sure it's not that simple, lol (Although the day with the coldest high temperature and the record low we broke on the 9tb did come at the end of solar cycles...but of course, tiny sample size, I guess!)

Screenshot_20200513-174023_Chrome.jpg

Are you salivating about the potential of robust blocking in 20-21 winter? Delayed effect and timed also with the favorable QBO .  Need an @Isotherm  grain of salt to ponder on over the hot summer months.   

 

 

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11 minutes ago, frd said:

Are you salivating about the potential of robust blocking in 20-21 winter? Delayed effect and timed also with the favorable QBO .  Need an @Isotherm  grain of salt to ponder on over the hot summer months.   

 

 

HL blocking is extinct in winter until proven otherwise.

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