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May Discobs 2020


George BM
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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

For all the doom and gloom, we pulled out three pretty nice days from Sat-Mon.  But yes, tomorrow and Wednesday look awful.

edit - record low max at DCA is 50 on Wednesday

Yes, last 3 have been nice for sure

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Hard to complain about a generally cool and wet pattern with some super nice sunny, mild days mixed in this time of year. If you don't want to go straight to warm and humid subtropical grossness, then this is the deal. Keep it going. Perpetual 85-95 and humid, with barely any rain, is coming soon enough.

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On 5/2/2020 at 6:12 PM, Amped said:

18z GFS is close to something but it  gets crushed by the PV.  A very odd problem to have in May

Looks like models abandon the idea of crushing the southern stream with the PV day 4-5. I thought I was losing my mind there for a while..

 

 Now looks like a phase,. Rain and wind, with some pretty insane windchills for May.

 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like highs in the 40s here tomorrow and Saturday and possibly Friday along with most likely frost and freezes Friday night and Saturday night.  Jon Jon should see May snow :snowing:

 

 

Forecasted high of 49 tomorrow in Smithsburg. Thats just rediculous for May lol

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The strong seasonal and late season PV combined with the holly grail for cold, - AO, - NAO and a  rising + PNA leads to this

 

 

Saturday looks downright blustery, with cold air filtering into
the area with a strong northwest wind. Guidance is rather
concerning for this time frame, with model soundings showing
very deep mixing (likely above the 800-mb pressure level). Such
mixing would promote advisory-level winds across the area, and
likely some additional showers (at least in the northern CWA).
For now, kept mention of showers to areas near/north of I-80 but
would not be surprised to see some showers spread farther
south. Some snow showers may continue in the Poconos, especially
in the morning. Highs are expected to be around 20 degrees
below seasonal averages, with lows on Saturday night likely
reaching the freezing mark or lower in the Poconos and possibly
the Lehigh Valley (with winds possibly keeping things from
tanking to the freezing mark elsewhere).

Sunday looks only somewhat better, with winds diminishing to a
degree and temperatures a few degrees warmer. Nevertheless, it
will likely be breezy again, with highs about 10-15 degrees
below seasonal averages.

A weak system looks to affect the region early next week, but
models vary somewhat on timing and intensity. Have slight-chance
to chance PoPs Sunday night through Monday night given the
lingering uncertainty. With continued large-scale troughing
across the area in a rather blocky upper-level pattern, expect
temperatures to continue to be well below climatology.

 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

  nao.sprd2.gif

 

pna.sprd2.gif

 

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

56.  No rain.  High clouds.  A normal Christmas Day around DC.

It might be just a tad bit cool for Christmas, actually. But we'll see. We may still warm up a few degrees.

 

56F at IAD right now as well.

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Well, the rain has stopped, just windy, damp and 46.3 degrees now. I'll have to take a look at records to see if I am in line for a 'cool max' temp. High was the 7 am reading of 49.8, been falling since.

EDIT- well if it doesn't go up then I will, but barely. Current 'cool max' was set in 2016 at 50.2 degrees, that broke 2003's 52.0. We shall see......

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