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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Up to 76 yesterday with full sunshine by a little past 3pm.  Think we're sunnier sooner today and that is closer to noon/1pm today for most

So-Cal June-gloom pattern  - Marine layer burns off by early afternoon to bright sunshine and warm temps.  With any sun Thu - Fri could have been a contender.  Hung up front an issue with such a stagnant airmass and massive ridge nearby.  Beyond the strong cold front passing though (maybe slowly) and subsequent 2 day cooler temps (5/31-6/4)  it could be a more normal pattern with transient height rises followed by transient troughs/ showers and storms with no cool or warmth locking in during the 6/5 - mid June period. Warmer days should yield the first 90s but need to watch how wet we get too.   

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Clouds again gave way to sunshine today. In response, the temperature rose into the upper 70s in New York City and nearby areas.

Across Western and Upstate New York, record high temperatures were set. Near record heat also prevailed in parts of Ontario and Quebec. High temperatures included:

Buffalo: 92° (old record: 88°, 1944)
Burlington: 92°(tied record set in 2010)
Caribou: 87°
Montreal: 91°
Ottawa: 92°
Rochester: 91° (old record: 90°, 1944)
Syracuse: 93° (old record: 90°, 2010 and 2011)

Some of those areas could see record warmth again tomorrow.

No excessive heat appears likely for at least the next 10-14 days in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moreover, a fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased.

The SOI was -6.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.127.

On May 25, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.279 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.599.

Uncertainty still exists with regard to June. However, the recent guidance has begun to converge on a scenario where the temperature anomaly would be within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the region.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.1°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

 

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42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clouds again gave way to sunshine today. In response, the temperature rose into the upper 70s in New York City and nearby areas.

Across Western and Upstate New York, record high temperatures were set. Near record heat also prevailed in parts of Ontario and Quebec. High temperatures included:

Buffalo: 92° (old record: 88°, 1944)
Burlington: 92°(tied record set in 2010)
Caribou: 87°
Montreal: 91°
Ottawa: 92°
Rochester: 91° (old record: 90°, 1944)
Syracuse: 93° (old record: 90°, 2010 and 2011)

Some of those areas could see record warmth again tomorrow.

No excessive heat appears likely for at least the next 10-14 days in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moreover, a fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased.

The SOI was -6.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.127.

On May 25, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.279 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.599.

Uncertainty still exists with regard to June. However, the recent guidance has begun to converge on a scenario where the temperature anomaly would be within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the region.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.1°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

 

Have Burlington and Montreal ever hit 90 before NYC before?

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Have Burlington and Montreal ever hit 90 before NYC before?

Yes. For example, Burlington had a high temperature of 90 on May 11, 1911 (NYC was 76). NYC’s first 90 degree temperature occurred on July 2, 1911.

On May 23, 1975 Montreal had a high temperature of 90. New York City’s first 90 degree temperature occurred a day later on May 24.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. For example, Burlington had a high temperature of 90 on May 11, 1911 (NYC was 76). NYC’s first 90 degree temperature occurred on July 2, 1911.

On May 23, 1975 Montreal had a high temperature of 90. New York City’s first 90 degree temperature occurred a day later on May 24.

Wow. Good to know. Thanks don.

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The last 5 days of May  are averaging 68.5degs., or 1.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -3.3[58.4].        May should end at  -2.3[60.1].

58* here at 6am-FOG<0.10mile.    59* at 6:30am-ditto.     60* at 7am-some improvement.         64* by Noon, broken sky.         66* by 2pm, broken sky.

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Up to 80 yesterday with strong late May sunshine and a bit of humidity.  Today more of the same - low level clouds which may be tougher to burn off ahead of more clouds coming in from storms to the south.  Winds more ESE and dewpoints remaining in the low 60s before more steamy air arrives Thu and Fri on a  more Southerly flow.

Looking ahead ;

Thu/Fri/Sat (5/28 - 5/30)  : Stormy humid and warm - mostly cloudy will cap temps in the upper 70s/low 80s.  Should we see more sun Friday temps may respond accordingly i the mid or upper 80s.
5/31 - 6/4 : Cooler as cold front passes and trough digs into the east.  Possible lows in the 40s inland Sunday night.
6/5 - 6/9 :  Rebound - warmer overall but near normal.
6/10 : Ridge in the east (far out there in guidance land) but hints of ridge building - seen that before and ultimately the ridge did build  400 miles to far north to deliver any summertime heat in the area.  So ridging looks likely, have to watch how it evolves and where  axis sets up and any ULL undercutting the ridge.    

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, dWave said:

Expected clouds to linger longer today, but cleared out by 9:30am, similar to yday. Mostly sunny 72, dew 64.

Meanwhile, TS Bertha forms..goes from named storm to landfall in under 2 hrs. 

What's the point of hurricane season when lately we've been getting storms in May? We don't have an official tornado season or snowstorm season

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