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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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23 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

as invigorating a morning for the city as you can get probably until mid october lol..

This will be one of the coolest  Memorial Day weekends (Sat-Mon) since 2010 in NYC. It’s only the 3rd year with no 85+ high temperatures in Central Park. 
 

Memorial Day weekend(Sat-Mon) maximum high in NYC since 2010

2019...86

2018...89

2017...71

2016...92

2015...85

2014...86

2013...73

2012...89

2011...86

2010...86

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Euro still has no 90 degree days at Newark through the end of May. So it looks like the first time since 2014.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 04-07 (2010) 08-08 (2011) 69
Mean 05-21 09-12 113
Maximum 06-17 (2014) 10-02 (2019)
2019 05-26 (2019) 90 10-02 (2019) 96 128
2018 05-02 (2018) 90 09-06 (2018) 98 126
2017 05-17 (2017) 92 09-25 (2017) 90 130
2016 05-25 (2016) 91 09-23 (2016) 90 120
2015 05-25 (2015) 90 09-09 (2015) 91 106
2014 06-17 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 95 80
2013 05-30 (2013) 93 09-11 (2013) 96 103
2012 05-28 (2012) 91 09-07 (2012) 90 101
2011 05-30 (2011) 92 08-08 (2011) 93 69
2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 90 170

 

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The temperature rose into the middle 60s this afternoon as the sun returned. At Playland Beach in Rye, access to the Boardwalk and beach were limited to Westchester County residents. Residency was verified at a police checkpoint. Visitors were also required to have masks. One elderly couple with New Hampshire license plates was turned away in front of me.

The beach was not very crowded. There was a police officer on the beach to enforce social distancing.  Messages about social distancing and the wearing of masks whenever one was less than 6 feet from another person were repeatedly broadcast over a sound system. Approximately one-third of the beach was closed.

Three photos:

Rye05242020-6.jpg

Rye05242020-5.jpg

Rye05242020-4.jpg

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16 minutes ago, doncat said:

Even 70° has been hard to come by, only reaching it once past eight days here.

7 days reaching 70 at Newark since April 1st is a new record low.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Apr 1 to May 24
Missing Count
1 2020-05-24 7 1
2 1967-05-24 9 0
- 1966-05-24 9 0
3 2003-05-24 12 0
- 1997-05-24 12 0
- 1978-05-24 12 0
- 1968-05-24 12 0
- 1950-05-24 12 0
- 1948-05-24 12 0
- 1940-05-24 12 0
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49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

7 days reaching 70 at Newark since April 1st is a new record low.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Apr 1 to May 24
Missing Count
1 2020-05-24 7 1
2 1967-05-24 9 0
- 1966-05-24 9 0
3 2003-05-24 12 0
- 1997-05-24 12 0
- 1978-05-24 12 0
- 1968-05-24 12 0
- 1950-05-24 12 0
- 1948-05-24 12 0
- 1940-05-24 12 0

While NNE and the Arctic bake in the 80s. Can’t make this up.

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Clouds broke for sunshine this afternoon sending readings well into the 60s.

Tomorrow should again feature partly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures appear likely during the closing days of May. However, no excessive heat appears likely for at least the next 10-14 days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May.

The SOI has continued to experience an increased tendency for positive values during May. For the May 1-23 period, the SOI was positive on 16 (70%) days. In April, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could continue to cool.

The SOI was not available today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.084.

On May 23, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.642 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.237.

Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to June. The May 21 0z EPS weeklies remained consistent with earlier EPS guidance favoring a cooler than normal June. The CFSv2 has been very consistent in showing an area of warm anomalies in the Northeast. However, the CFSv2 is just nearing its skillful range.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.4°.

 

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The last 7 days of May are averaging 68degs., or 1,5degs. AN.

Month to to date is  -3.6[57.8].        May should end at  -2.3[60.1].

57* here at 6am.       58* at 7am.          64* by 11am.        66* ---64* ( Noon TO 2pm.)    59*-62* variable Fog between 8-11pm. 

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, NNE and Canada will reach 90 before we do this year.

31749316-B9CC-466A-B59B-9A2D843F8E59.gif.57df2606c9dc4f9be9bf5ae0a831a00c.gif

 

lol - NYC and LI are nearly the coldest spots in this entire view which is pretty remarkable considering this includes northern Maine and areas well north and west of Montreal and Toronto. At least it's the end of May and we are at least getting into the 70s!

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2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

lol - NYC and LI are nearly the coldest spots in this entire view which is pretty remarkable considering this includes northern Maine and areas well north and west of Montreal and Toronto. At least it's the end of May and we are at least getting into the 70s!

The ridge axis is pretty far north allowing more of an onshore flow for us. You can see how the warmer SW flow gets pushed up into NNE and SE Canada.

2B3A230F-3B8A-4D5B-91E7-274DAC4FDBD8.gif.ee22894075ba6de6c6b8b8349cde0657.gif

2784C3C9-E193-4491-A8C4-718315B88AEC.gif.95c06a1e483807a7b4ff5976e0042d68.gif



 

 

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Dow to 54 last night.  Low level clouds will be slow to erode over the next 2 - 4 hours..  NE flow continues.  Clouds will muddy up any temps higher than the low 80s Thu and Fri.  Front arrives Fri PM / Sat keeping things a bit cooler than normal 6/1 - 6/4 .  Heights and temps look to rebound 6/5 we'll see how things evolve.

 

image stays cached on prior day,-

 

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