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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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22 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

GFS has much less, I suspect Euro is wrong again.  We will see

The new HRRR v4 has been doing pretty well this spring. It has areas that get 1-2” under the best banding. But areas outside the main bands will get less.
 

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Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the 70s across the area. High temperatures included:

Brigeport: 75°
Islip: 76°
New York City: 76°
Newark: 77°
Philadelphia: 71°

An area of light rain moved through parts of the New York City region this evening. Tomorrow will feature mainly cloudy skies with periods of rain.

Sunday and Memorial Day should feature partly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures appear likely during the closing days of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +5.15 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.457.

On May 21, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.157 (RMM). The May 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.202.

Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to June. The May 21 0z EPS weeklies remained consistent with earlier EPS guidance favoring a cooler than normal June. The CFSv2 has been very consistent in showing an area of warm anomalies in the Northeast. However, the CFSv2 is just nearing its skillful range.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.5°.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 68degs., or about 1.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -3.5[57.6].          Should be -2.0[60.3] by the 31st.

60* here at 6am.(FOG <0.1mile)      62* by 9am(Fog >2miles)    10:30am-back to 60* and little visibility.    65* by 1pm, visibility >5miles.     59* by 8pm.       58* at 9pm.

Was only 68* here yesterday, with City  at 77*

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9 minutes ago, chrisNJ said:

It has been pouring for 2 hours in Hillsborough.  Didn’t expect this.  Need to check the rain gauge. 

My ambient station is at .40 here in branchburg.   Have to check the official one later. I see other ambient stations in Middlesex are over 2.30" and somerville up to 2.5"

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40 minutes ago, FPizz said:

My ambient station is at .40 here in branchburg.   Have to check the official one later. I see other ambient stations in Middlesex are over 2.30" and somerville up to 2.5"

My gauge (not official by any means) is 1.85 since yesterday. 

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21 minutes ago, chrisNJ said:

My gauge (not official by any means) is 1.85 since yesterday. 

You're probably close.  A see another guy from Hillsborough on Twitter saying 1.80 since yesterday.   I was on the edge of the heaviest rains earlier.  

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