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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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The Euro has plenty on easterly flow over the next 10 days. The warmest that the Euro gets through the 27th is 75-80 in the warmer locations of NJ. This Is well  below average for a max from the 17th to the 27th. Many  years we make it to 90 degrees or higher in at a place like Newark. The last time Newark didn’t reach 80 was back in 2003. That was also the most recent time that we had below average temperatures in both April and May. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature May 17 to May 27
Missing Count
2019-05-27 90 0
2018-05-27 92 0
2017-05-27 94 0
2016-05-27 93 0
2015-05-27 91 0
2014-05-27 88 0
2013-05-27 88 0
2012-05-27 86 0
2011-05-27 88 0
2010-05-27 95 0
2009-05-27 87 0
2008-05-27 87 0
2007-05-27 92 0
2006-05-27 86 0
2005-05-27 84 0
2004-05-27 92 0
2003-05-27 78 0
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3 hours ago, KEITH L.I said:

Doesn't La Nina developing Summers usually lead to hot and dry?..ex 83,88,95 ect

The continuing IO standing wave may mean that this doesn’t follow the typical developing La Niña playbook. We currently have record SST’s in the Indian Ocean. 
 

Typical La Niña summer forcing pattern closer to Maritime Continent

5F0444AC-D878-4884-93FC-93C96D8E4596.gif.9b752036f6162e53248727476940317b.gif
 Seasonal forecast further West IO forcing 

CF2AE040-4BED-483F-87F2-4F2466C7CB05.png.0a799f39dfbe997098cb45e3dbb624b6.png

 

80638A47-E238-4B92-86B3-098958BFA58F.png.b4cb89641624b38a7dbefd03790c160b.png

 

 

 

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Starting Thursday it’s supposed to be in the 70’s everyday now. Most days should feature lots of sun out here as well. Might not be pool weather yet but it’s not supposed be that hot in May. Big improvement from the grim look a few days ago. 
 

We had the AC on all weekend. Turned it off last night.

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30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Starting Thursday it’s supposed to be in the 70’s everyday now. Most days should feature lots of sun out here as well. Might not be pool weather yet but it’s not supposed be that hot in May. Big improvement from the grim look a few days ago. 
 

We had the AC on all weekend. Turned it off last night.

Sun has been out here and its 70 degrees. This week won't be bad, time to turn on the sprinklers, as we need the rain

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3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sun has been out here and its 70 degrees. This week won't be bad, time to turn on the sprinklers, as we need the rain

70 here as well with filtered sun.    Agree on the rain-also pollen building on surfaces here-need a good shower to wash it away

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cool and chilly breeze maybe i should close my windows

45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Starting Thursday it’s supposed to be in the 70’s everyday now. Most days should feature lots of sun out here as well. Might not be pool weather yet but it’s not supposed be that hot in May. Big improvement from the grim look a few days ago. 
 

We had the AC on all weekend. Turned it off last night.

you don't need ac with temps in the upper 70's and very low humidity like it was on saturday and sunday was cool

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25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sun has been out here and its 70 degrees. This week won't be bad, time to turn on the sprinklers, as we need the rain

Yep I turned my sprinkler system on Friday, due to the heat and sun. Now with the forecast to be dry this week, definitely need those sprinkler systems on.  Only have 1.04” for the month in the rain gauge to date. 

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1.24” for the month here.

We needed a rest from the constant rains though. Soil moisture meter underneath one of my plants was at 100% for virtually all April and into early May, it’s 76% at the moment. I’m surprised nothing rotted.

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55 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

cool and chilly breeze maybe i should close my windows

you don't need ac with temps in the upper 70's and very low humidity like it was on saturday and sunday was cool

It was 85 here on Saturday and my upstairs was 80 degrees. F that.

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

1.24” for the month here.

We needed a rest from the constant rains though. Soil moisture meter underneath one of my plants was at 100% for virtually all April and into early May, it’s 76% at the moment. I’m surprised nothing rotted.

New plants need watering now. Established plants are fine. I just hope this isn’t the start of another long dry summer (along the coast)

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10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

New plants need watering now. Established plants are fine. I just hope this isn’t the start of another long dry summer (along the coast)

Most summers feature dry stretches along the coast. Last summer we had a 2-3 week period with no rain and everything turned brown.

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3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Sun has been out here and its 70 degrees. This week won't be bad, time to turn on the sprinklers, as we need the rain

70 here as well with filtered sun.    Agree on the rain-also pollen building on surfaces here-need a good shower to wash it away

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6 hours ago, psv88 said:

It was 85 on Friday and warm Saturday. House got to 77, AC went on. Can't sleep if its above 72

That’s a personal preference, similar to somebody that likes it cold when they sleep. Nothing wrong with it, but by now we would have had a few days already that required AC for most. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably a better chance of needing the heat than AC next several days. Coastal sections could see 30 to 40 mph easterly gusts on Tuesday. Interior sections should drop into the 30’s early on Thursday.


6A981ADE-0626-4E92-9C3A-4573DECB792F.thumb.gif.93bc7c19b80d4b31b7e29ae3f263f1ba.gif

 

 

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Yep!

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Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case through at least Friday. Conditions will also remain generally dry.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +0.17 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.696.

On May 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.743 (RMM). The May 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.464.

Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.6°.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 60.5degs., or 4.5degs. BN.

Month to date is  -3.5[57.0].         Should be about  -3.8[58.1] by the 27th.

56* here at 6am.        61* by 9am.        65* by 11am.        67* by Noon.        68* by 12:30pm.        66* at 1pm.        65* at 2pm.

 

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