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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Probably a compromise between the now heavy QPF GFS and Euro which is now just west  of the area with the heavy rains.  Long duration cut off ULL Mon - Fri/Sat next week.  Still much uncertainty of timing and positions but likely see 3 or 4 of the 5 days mainly cloudy with 1 or 2 days very wet and a sneaky partly cloudy nice day.  Beyond there as we move into Memorial Day weekend we should see the ridge rebuild as the ULL moves out with warming temps and our first shot at some heat/ 90s into the Memorial day holiday and subsequent week 5/25.

 

68 degrees and clearing on our way to a third very nice day.

 

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4 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Fake

So far this year, the sun has been “blank” with no sunspots 76 percent of the time, a rate surpassed only once before in the Space Age — last year, when it was 77 percent blank.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 The GFS tried to do the same with Joaquin while all the other guidance was OTS. You can see the 12z beginning to shift toward the other models. 
 

 

Are you trying to say that this setup is impossible or just the GFS is bad at handling ULLs? Also keep in mind the GFS received a new upgrade since that time.

Spring Sandy

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10 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Are you trying to say that this setup is impossible or just the GFS is bad at handling ULLs? Also keep in mind the GFS received a new upgrade since that time.

Spring Sandy

The Euro does much better with tropical and trough interactions than the GFS. I would believe it if the 12z Euro came in more phased than the 0z run. But the 12z GFS took a step further east. The 12zCMC, UKMET, and NAM are similar to the 0z Euro more OTS.

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro does much better with tropical and trough interactions than the GFS. I would believe it if the 12z Euro came in more phased than the 0z run. But the 12z GFS took a step further east. The 12zCMC, UKMET, and NAM are similar to the 0z Euro more OTS.

Did you see the eps ?

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Early clouds gave way to abundant sunshine. In response, temperatures rose into the 70s across the region. Tomorrow will likely be cooler with readings mainly in the middle 60s.

The potential exists for a very wet week next week though differences exist among the guidance. Much will depend on the track what will likely become Tropical Storm Arthur will take and how it interacts with a system coming out of the Ohio Valley.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +12.66 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.070.

On May 15, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.052 (RMM). The May 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.076.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.8°.

 

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6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully the models shift the storm west. Interesting weather is better than boring weather .

It won't be coming west-looks like a pretty sharp recurve. We should know by now-once the Euro catches onto a particular solution with tropical systems it's much more likely right vs. the GFS. The Euro has several days at least of crap easterly flow and below normal temps/probably low clouds and garbage. The ridge is oriented west of us and a big trough is digging in NE of us and highs building over the Maritimes. To make it better we have a cutoff low SW of us to aid in dragging in the easterly flow garbage, with any interesting weather mostly well south of here. You know the rest. :axe:

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