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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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This afternoon, the temperature soared to 84° in New York City. Despite today's warmth, the first 15 days of May saw readings average 4.0° to 6.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. In New York City, the temperature was 4.5° below normal.

In parts of Greece, Bulgaria, and Serbia & Montenegro, May record high temperatures were set today.

The ingredients are coming together for a very wet week next week. The potential exists for tropical moisture to get involved. If that happens, some parts of the region could see excessive amounts of rain.

The second half of May could wind up warmer than normal overall. There is some model and ensemble support for at least one bout of much above normal readings.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was -0.90 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.254.

On May 14, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.073 (RMM). The May 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.959.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.8°.

 

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Not sure if anyone pointed this out yet but the May 9 snow in NYC was the seventh month in a row dating back to last November that NYC saw at least a trace of snow during the month. This is the first time in the 150 years that records have been kept that this has occurred.

Why doesn’t it surprise me that one of the all time worst snowfall seasons in recorded history would set a snowfall record, dubious as it is.

And with that said I’ll see you all in October. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Not much rain lol

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

I could honestly see this happening. Looks like we get caught in an area of subsidence between the storm off the coast and the ULL?? This is what the GFS did for a few runs before it became wetter again. Still alot of details to iron out regarding next week. Have to see if the Euro ensembles/EPS agree but I think they will. Quite a change from 12z. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 63.5degs., or about 0.5deg. BN.

Month to date is  -4.5[55.6].       Should be about  -3.1[58.4]by the 24th.

The EURO went from 5.8" to just 0.3" for the next 10 days.       The ENS was cut by 2/3rds., and is more like the GFS at 2".

A 06Z GFS Jackpot here on Tues AM:???

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13.png

66* here at 6am.           Still 66* at 9am.       71* by Noon.         72* by 1pm.       75* by 4pm.        63* by 8pm.

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