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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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A storm tracking northeastward off the North Carolina Coast will bring periods of rain and cool temperatures to the region tomorrow. Rainfall amounts are likely be be 0.25" or less except for southeastern New England where 0.50" to 1.00" with some locally higher amounts are possible.

Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. Since 2000, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below.

The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows:

Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019
Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019
Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010
Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992
Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978

Moderation may commence near mid-month.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was -1.74 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.300.

On May 4, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.050 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.393.

The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under bright sunshine the temperature rose into the lower 60 this afternoon after a brisk morning with temperatures in the 40s. Two photos:

Mamaroneck05052020-1.jpg

Mamaroneck05052020-3.jpg

Maybe they could add a few more languages to the signs. It could be that these pictured future world leaders aren’t familiar with the languages that are posted. :poster_stupid:

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The next 8 days are averaging 51.5degs., or about 9.5degs. BN.

Month to date is  +2.5[61.1].        Should be about  -4.9[55.2] by the 14th.

The next 17 days on the GFS ENS are averaging an astonishing 50degs., or about 12degs. BN!          This would leave us at about  -9.0[52.4] by the 23rd.       14/20 members have a Trace of Snow on Sat. AM.

52* here at 6am.        54* by 9am.       53* at 10am.

 

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Euro has some the lowest May 850 mb temperatures on record for Saturday. So it looks like NYC has a good chance to dip below 40 for the first time in May since the 1970’s. NYC may not get out of the 40’s for a high on Saturday. There also could be some wet snowflakes mixed in during the morning. That would tie 1977 for the latest trace of snow on record in NYC. The NYC record  low is 35  and low max 44.

Record Lowest
Max Temperature M 69 94 in 1979 44 in 1977
Min Temperature M 52 74 in 2000 35 in 1947

 

 

DD01CD9A-E0EB-434E-8461-7BAC26D29BF9.thumb.png.aaae78e22491fe3557874bb04fb06adb.png

3FCCB358-4445-49E9-A95A-E14B6FEF39FE.thumb.jpeg.cd632f284c8ed928532b2bee66d374a3.jpeg

 


 

 

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19 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Amazing how much leaf out happened within the last several days.  Lot of lush green trees and vegetation.  Our Dogwoods also came out, which is average for them anyway.

same here-a few warm days will do the trick....

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

do you get below freezing?   I'm on the CT coast so looks like 35-36 here which is probably ok.

35-36 wouldn't be a freeze obviously, but we know that it's common for frost to form when temps get down to the mid 30s. So sensitive plants could be in trouble this weekend. Really glad I decided to not plant warm weather vegetables like tomatoes yet. I usually do in the first few days of May, but this year I held off due to this cold blast. Mid next week will be a good time to plant since we'll be starting a warmer pattern then.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

do you get below freezing?   I'm on the CT coast so looks like 35-36 here which is probably ok.

Luckily it's late enough that even an anomalously cold airmass still isn't cold enough to get temps down to freezing.

In fact freezing temps would challenge all time May lows. Still 35/36 is nothing to scoff at and a few models like the NAM suggest even colder temps. 

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6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

35-36 wouldn't be a freeze obviously, but we know that it's common for frost to form when temps get down to the mid 30s. So sensitive plants could be in trouble this weekend. Really glad I decided to not plant warm weather vegetables like tomatoes yet. I usually do in the first few days of May, but this year I held off due to this cold blast. Mid next week will be a good time to plant since we'll be starting a warmer pattern then.

 

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Luckily it's late enough that even an anomalously cold airmass still isn't cold enough to get temps down to freezing.

In fact freezing temps would challenge all time May lows. Still 35/36 is nothing to scoff at and a few models like the NAM suggest even colder temps. 

way back in 2001 (I remember it b/c it was my 30th birthday) I planted a large annual/periennal garden on 5/5 given or take-the next morning there was a light frost on the roofs and cars-definitely some damage to some of the plants.   Goes to show you it's not totally safe until about 5/12-5/15

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14 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Maybe they could add a few more languages to the signs. It could be that these pictured future world leaders aren’t familiar with the languages that are posted. :poster_stupid:

Young people don't read, it's a social disadvantage to do so.

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

 

way back in 2001 (I remember it b/c it was my 30th birthday) I planted a large annual/periennal garden on 5/5 given or take-the next morning there was a light frost on the roofs and cars-definitely some damage to some of the plants.   Goes to show you it's not totally safe until about 5/12-5/15

When I was a kid the guidance was always to put the sensitive plants out after May 15.  Even though things have warmed since then and a lot of years you can get away with planting the tomatoes early, it seems that May 15 is still the date if you want a high degree of confidence.

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I believe that 5-22-02 was the latest freeze for the coldest spots on Long Island.

Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
2002 05-22 (2002) 32 10-15 (2002) 31 145
2016 05-20 (2016) 32 10-11 (2016) 31 143
2008 05-20 (2008) 31 10-07 (2008) 31 139
2003 05-19 (2003) 32 10-03 (2003) 29 136
2000 05-16 (2000) 30 10-09 (2000) 32 145
2013 05-15 (2013) 32 10-19 (2013) 32 156
1999 05-15 (1999) 31 10-06 (1999) 31 143
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