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May Discussion

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

That's just it ... that's not the case with that thing - ...Oh I get the example. But in this case, beyond Tuesday there's almost no gradient beneath that thing and it's just a left over whirl at mid levels...

Not sure why people are evading the optimism here - it doesn't begin to come of an wantonly so -

I think it’ll be nicer up here, it usually is in those cases as NW New England tries to get away from the maritime junk.  

I honestly haven’t looked at a damn thing except that gif Will posted, I’ll trust your analysis as it seems you looked deeper into it.

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Was going to go out to the island for Memorial Day, but not happening if the remnants of that shite are going to be drifting around. Blech.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Time play everyone's favorite game in spring....

Wheel!!!!!!! Oh!!!!!!!!!.........  RHEAAAA!!!!!!!!

 

I have seen it in a few posts now but can't figure it out.  What is RHEA?

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2 minutes ago, klw said:

Meanwhile we have another Freeze Warning up here for tonight.

Today finally felt like we were coming out of it.  Saw 54F on my car at 4pm, getting warm in the sunshine.  However a dew of 18F means the breeze still has a little chill to it.  

Now we just need some leaves.  I’m so ready for that fresh green of spring and done with stick season.

94702206-3C8D-480A-ADFC-EAB222B19414.jpeg.3ce054c88d86d3d76e526cf4ed649f92.jpeg

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8 hours ago, weathafella said:

I think that was the year we had the crucial Memorial Day weekend series between the Yankees and Twins.  Earl Battey vs Elston Howard battling for premier catcher in the league status.  Memorial Day weekend reached 99 at Central Park.

I'd go with 1969 as the Memorial Day scorcher, with NYC hitting 97 on either 30th or 31st (can't recall which), tied with 1987 for 2nd warmest.  The 99 in 1962 came on the 19th and fortunately was modest dews (50s to low 60s?)  When the 1 PM NYC temp of 89 became 95 an hour later my friend and I forgot about playing baseball and sought some shade.

And responding to Will's post about Boston's 2 record lows this month, 1st time since 1967 - that month also had some cool afternoons.  5/25 was a northeast storm that held NYC to a high of 46, about 30F BN, and with winds strong enough to fell newly leafed-out trees at my NNJ workplace.  We'd had 3" of snow on 4/27 that year, and co-workers on a fishing trip past Towanda, PA had an inch of sleet on the 1st Saturday of May. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes.. I for one would be dumbfounded and utterly shocked of these guys / models on here calling for a week of cold rains actually ends up reality. I think Monday into TuesdayAM  is wet and then the whole thing slides south East.

All the Twitter Mets are on it

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14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

All the Twitter Mets are on it

They were on 85-90 

 

Even then, it`s still close
enough to keep most of the area a bit wet and cool. So stuck with
blend, but please don`t put too much value in it. In this kind of
pattern, the forecast will change.

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25 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I'd go with 1969 as the Memorial Day scorcher, with NYC hitting 97 on either 30th or 31st (can't recall which), tied with 1987 for 2nd warmest.  The 99 in 1962 came on the 19th and fortunately was modest dews (50s to low 60s?)  When the 1 PM NYC temp of 89 became 95 an hour later my friend and I forgot about playing baseball and sought some shade.

And responding to Will's post about Boston's 2 record lows this month, 1st time since 1967 - that month also had some cool afternoons.  5/25 was a northeast storm that held NYC to a high of 46, about 30F BN, and with winds strong enough to fell newly leafed-out trees at my NNJ workplace.  We'd had 3" of snow on 4/27 that year, and co-workers on a fishing trip past Towanda, PA had an inch of sleet on the 1st Saturday of May. 

I’m thinking of ‘62 then for sure!  I was a teenager.  I do remember it being cool in 67 but I was in upstate NY until late May.

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2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Shuttle bus from Billerica and Tolland to the Tobin Bridge departs in 2 days

it is not snow so we good

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33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They were on 85-90 

 

Even then, it`s still close
enough to keep most of the area a bit wet and cool. So stuck with
blend, but please don`t put too much value in it. In this kind of
pattern, the forecast will change.

Heat wave?

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1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

Sorry about the gas. We knew this was a risk. 

What did you put on the North Atlantic Salmon?

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Still a better chance of that than your rain / snow 40’s. May best win

Hey I didn't forecast rain or snow,  the models did forecast rain, but you definitely forecasted a heat wave 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hey I didn't forecast rain or snow,  the models did forecast rain, but you definitely forecasted a heat wave 

When you post models and start complaining how bad the weather will be next week, shoot me etc..  and don’t mention any other possible outcomes .. that’s a forecast 

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Here it is mid May and I've only mowed my lawn (front only) once in Lowell and I likely won't have to in NH until June. Trees as bare as the top of Kevin's head.

Was April colder than May?

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you post models and start complaining how bad the weather will be next week, shoot me etc..  and don’t mention any other possible outcomes .. that’s a forecast 

I complained? You are getting your posters mixed up. No models have a different outcome ,do I make one up?

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

From Jeremy Reiner on FB

Windiest April and first half of May since 1996

99333EAC-7FE5-4275-A0B7-1271CF7F750A.jpeg

Anyone know why the there’s a downward trend here over the last 70 years? 

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I complained? You are getting your posters mixed up. No models have a different outcome ,do I make one up?

:lol:

The DIT forecasting system... 80% personally desired weather and 20% model reality.

If every model shows snow for days and days, go with it.  Rain for days and days, toss. 

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4 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Anyone know why the there’s a downward trend here over the last 70 years? 

Nice catch.  Would be curious to hear the locals thoughts on that.  Site changes?

"Seemed a lot windier when I was a kid...."

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It definitely looks like there is a step-down in the mid/late-1990s around when ASOS was installed. I wonder if that has anything to do with it. 

It doesn’t explain the drop between the 1950s to 1990s but those post-ASOS years are pretty low. 

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11 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Anyone know why the there’s a downward trend here over the last 70 years? 

Probably measuring differences in different eras. You had all human obs before the mid 90s and at some point near then there was a transition from cup anemometers to the ultrasonic. There was a clear dropoff there when ASOS/METAR took over in 1996.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It definitely looks like there is a step-down in the mid/late-1990s around when ASOS was installed. I wonder if that has anything to do with it. 

It doesn’t explain the drop between the 1950s to 1990s but those post-ASOS years are pretty low. 

I've viewed a lot of old SA obs from the 1950s. It varies by site, but many would put out 1hrly or 3hrly obs with sustained wind values that were rounded like 34015KT, 33020KT etc. The bigger wind speeds often lacked gust reports as well. I remember seeing a lot of Nov 50 obs that were like 07050KT with no gust speeds. So I've always took those old wind readings with a grain of salt.

weathafella era yore.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I've viewed a lot of old SA obs from the 1950s. It varies by site, but many would put out 1hrly or 3hrly obs with sustained wind values that were rounded like 34015KT, 33020KT etc. The bigger wind speeds often lacked gust reports as well. I remember seeing a lot of Nov 50 obs that were like 07050KT with no gust speeds. So I've always took those old wind readings with a grain of salt.

weathafella era yore.

Yeah the 1950s wind data specifically looks pretty weird. Even 1960s to some extent. 

Just a WAG but I wonder if they high-balled wind data a little bit back in that era before jumbo jets...the commercial airplanes back then were definitely more susceptible to wind than the jumbos that started coming out circa late 1960s and 1970s. So from a safety standpoint, you could argue being more conservative and rounding up on the winds. 

It might be totally unrelated too but I often think about that stuff because the weather observers back then were really important to the airports before radar and other technology had come out. 

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