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May Discussion


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59 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I wouldn't rub it in.

My dad sent me a screen shot of his weather app for the family locations. 

One of these is not like the others.  We are usually the ones getting butt-banged up here on upslope clouds or blocked flow stratus.... spring backdoor fronts are the one time we really get some nice weather compared to elsewhere.

May_23.jpg.c8e808eab1aaedbb2bfac6682a3bf39a.jpg

Untitled.jpg.9bc8780533518f56b03b2a0fa3ec7b27.jpg

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Cleared out nicely the last couple hours and looks like we’ll get a nice sunset but it feels more like a crisp mid-October evening rather than Memorial Day weekend. 

 

8FF6434A-F114-443A-99D7-07C9FAA7C1BF.jpeg

No cold front indicated there

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We track

Large-scale pattern features the amplified ridge axis shifting
eastward, off the Atlantic seaboard. This sets up a broad moist-
sector with PWAT values per GFS/Canadian rising to summerlike and
tropical-type levels (around 1.75 to near 2") by late in the week.
This feed of moisture is tied to southerly flow ahead of a closed
upper-low progged over the lower MS Valley/eastern portions of the
Southern Plains, with another northern-stream upper trough in the
stronger belt of westerlies over the northern Plains/Canadian
Prairies.
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It was 72/28 at only 19% RH at 8pm.  Crazy how late the sun is out for it to still be at max diurnal mixing as late as 8pm!

By 9pm it was 62/40 as the decoupling started, but it's crazy how long the afternoon warmth can carry into the evening this time of year before the nighttime vacuum starts.

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22 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

We track


Large-scale pattern features the amplified ridge axis shifting
eastward, off the Atlantic seaboard. This sets up a broad moist-
sector with PWAT values per GFS/Canadian rising to summerlike and
tropical-type levels (around 1.75 to near 2") by late in the week.
This feed of moisture is tied to southerly flow ahead of a closed
upper-low progged over the lower MS Valley/eastern portions of the
Southern Plains, with another northern-stream upper trough in the
stronger belt of westerlies over the northern Plains/Canadian
Prairies.

Those are some sweaty PWAT values.  Southerly flow ahead of a closed low this time of year usually means we could be in it for a while.  Those things don't move fast.

Warm look too with 18-19C H85 temps, ha.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-t2m_f-0602400.thumb.png.8d96619c43e9acb19038c1df3d5bbc94.png

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looking at the Euro temp maps must be a massive seabreeze effect as it keeps most of CT and SEMA in the 70s while places like Ashburham Ma are mid 80s this week. Last 3 days of the ten day are fugly for Boston with a 58 62 58 high. Weird setups

 

It looks warm everywhere, but initially on Tues/wed it has an over the top look with the warmest 850s across NNE

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southerly flow at this time of year is not a big heat direction... any time of year over the peninsula of sne, but particularly at this time of year when obviously sst seasonal lag takes until august to even wanna stick a toe in the water n of the del marva...  it's sloppy to refer to a s'erly gradient flow as a sea-breeze but whatever... 

no one asked but this week's ridge and warm look was never a 'big heat' signal. it doesn't have crucial sw air layer expulsion/mass meshing into it.  as this ridge burgeons ... there is an old trough along the front range of the rockies that vestigially creates a shear axis .. effectively cutting off any sw heat source from smearing east.  such that any heat at all is entirely 'home grown' ... the bigger aspect about this may be the dp surge into the ov and up through ne as the week progresses... that could make 73 dp regardless of any mos products by the time thu/fri role around.   but ..if/when temps are 86 and it's 72 to 75 dp ( say ..) who's counting at that point.  it's sack sticker a.c. weather.

the euro's d10 off the 00z run does have a sw expulsion getting ready to dragon flick the great lakes and that synopsis probably attempts/extrapolates that conveyor into the region .. imaginary d11/12... the gfs more than less similar, too... but of course the 06z of the latter breaks that down.

the gefs-based teles are trying to snow in june - we'll see how well that works out... :axe:  congratulations ncep on your model

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29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Hopefully the last day this cool before autumn.

good luck ..

here's what's gonna happen.  every summer for the next 18.34 years is going have big plus 10 day intervals interceded by weirdly offsetting -20 episodes that last for 3 day before the whole coronaviruse illness favoring bullshit recycles.

why?

global warming pig species destroying the previous dynamic.

then...after 18.34 years...the total warming of the globe is so pervasive it's lifted all seasonality belts pole-ward at a faster rate then climatology, setting up a climate of vitriol in the social media of that future date because of the 97th percentile nimrod rule which guarantees the vast majority .. don't get how 2nd and 3rd order partial derivatives of complex systems maintainhidden influence on statistical results. 

may as well not engage - 100% accurate prediction barring a comet, asteroid, super volcano or Carrington shut-down event.

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Oh look, another sunny day with temps in the 70s and dews in the 30s.  

Had one rogue OVC ob this morning from the ASOS...that was close, immediately back to CLR.  

I’m not sure I remember such a continuous  stretch of clear skies up here as the past 7 days.

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