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May Discussion


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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you post models and start complaining how bad the weather will be next week, shoot me etc..  and don’t mention any other possible outcomes .. that’s a forecast 

I complained? You are getting your posters mixed up. No models have a different outcome ,do I make one up?

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I complained? You are getting your posters mixed up. No models have a different outcome ,do I make one up?

:lol:

The DIT forecasting system... 80% personally desired weather and 20% model reality.

If every model shows snow for days and days, go with it.  Rain for days and days, toss. 

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It definitely looks like there is a step-down in the mid/late-1990s around when ASOS was installed. I wonder if that has anything to do with it. 

It doesn’t explain the drop between the 1950s to 1990s but those post-ASOS years are pretty low. 

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11 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Anyone know why the there’s a downward trend here over the last 70 years? 

Probably measuring differences in different eras. You had all human obs before the mid 90s and at some point near then there was a transition from cup anemometers to the ultrasonic. There was a clear dropoff there when ASOS/METAR took over in 1996.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It definitely looks like there is a step-down in the mid/late-1990s around when ASOS was installed. I wonder if that has anything to do with it. 

It doesn’t explain the drop between the 1950s to 1990s but those post-ASOS years are pretty low. 

I've viewed a lot of old SA obs from the 1950s. It varies by site, but many would put out 1hrly or 3hrly obs with sustained wind values that were rounded like 34015KT, 33020KT etc. The bigger wind speeds often lacked gust reports as well. I remember seeing a lot of Nov 50 obs that were like 07050KT with no gust speeds. So I've always took those old wind readings with a grain of salt.

weathafella era yore.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I've viewed a lot of old SA obs from the 1950s. It varies by site, but many would put out 1hrly or 3hrly obs with sustained wind values that were rounded like 34015KT, 33020KT etc. The bigger wind speeds often lacked gust reports as well. I remember seeing a lot of Nov 50 obs that were like 07050KT with no gust speeds. So I've always took those old wind readings with a grain of salt.

weathafella era yore.

Yeah the 1950s wind data specifically looks pretty weird. Even 1960s to some extent. 

Just a WAG but I wonder if they high-balled wind data a little bit back in that era before jumbo jets...the commercial airplanes back then were definitely more susceptible to wind than the jumbos that started coming out circa late 1960s and 1970s. So from a safety standpoint, you could argue being more conservative and rounding up on the winds. 

It might be totally unrelated too but I often think about that stuff because the weather observers back then were really important to the airports before radar and other technology had come out. 

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It definitely looks like there is a step-down in the mid/late-1990s around when ASOS was installed. I wonder if that has anything to do with it. 

It doesn’t explain the drop between the 1950s to 1990s but those post-ASOS years are pretty low. 

The 50s wind records in NL are also super high. I've suspected measurement error. 

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Where is The Wiz?

HREF pretty bullish on updraft helocity (good proxy for rotating
storms) across western-central MA into CT. Given strong wind fields
aloft (fast moving storms) and sufficient SB instability main
concern will be for damaging winds with stronger storms. Also with
wave traversing the stalled warm frontal boundary Sig Tor parameter
climbs to 2 across the CT river valley as low level flow backs. All
these parameters suggest a low risk of an isolated TOR. So as of now
the greatest risk for strong to severe storms is across western-
central MA into CT where greatest instability will overlap strongest
shear. Window for storms appears 20z-03z from west to east.

 

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36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Officially  a resident  of belchertown!! Should do a little better in the snowfall department I think.. just happy to get out of the valley a little bit :) being further north might help in some storms

Welcome to Belcher-tucky! And yes you will, especially if you're closer to the Quabbin Hills or around rt 21. The difference can be amazing. Can't tell you how many times driving home from ZooMass where it is raining and we have snow. For example, the early December storm last year when Amherst got 14" over two days we got an extra foot plus (17" came the second night when Amherst got 5-6"). I almost shat myself when I woke up that second morning and turned on the porch light.No photo description available.

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