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May Discussion


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6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I mean, at this point, would a week long cut off really surprise anyone?

Yes.. I for one would be dumbfounded and utterly shocked of these guys / models on here calling for a week of cold rains actually ends up reality. I think Monday into TuesdayAM  is wet and then the whole thing slides south East.

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I just spent a few at Pivotal looking over the 700 mb RH and 500 mb this and 850 mb plumes and so forth, and much of the Euro's momentum is confined to a mid level swirl ... that's partly sunny under mild 850 mb temperatures, and more diurnal instability looking from Wed on in that particular model... 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes.. I for one would be dumbfounded and utterly shocked of these guys / models on here calling for a week of cold rains actually ends up reality. I think Monday into TuesdayAM  is wet and then the whole thing slides south East.

58CD8001-DAC3-4E4C-93A5-D422DA00A80A.gif

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not sure of any reasoning that foots his outlook but ... I think he's right.  The most vulnerable days to affliction from that is Monday/Tuesday ... 

I'm also open to the notion that this ends up less anyway, because it is not unprecedented in the mid to late spring for the models to over-sell a mid range mid level cut-off and it ends up being more of a mid level instability dent in the isohypses ..  This thing is trying to settle into the M/A region while the super synopsis around it is heading in the other direction - might be a red flag?  gee. 

Also, seeing the GEFs at least hint if not outright attempt more progressive drift ... it just wouldn't surprise me if things don't end up so bad.  But, I'm also sensing this is a bit of an inconsolable crowd, too ... a time-purified bastion of ingrates that share in the same "negative S/A/D" that really just can't stand summer weather unless it is utterly perfect - otherwise, it's we eat a steady diet of their smoldering troll tactical grousing.  hahaha

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31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just spent a few at Pivotal looking over the 700 mb RH and 500 mb this and 850 mb plumes and so forth, and much of the Euro's momentum is confined to a mid level swirl ... that's partly sunny under mild 850 mb temperatures, and more diurnal instability looking from Wed on in that particular model... 

Yup

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57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes.. I for one would be dumbfounded and utterly shocked of these guys / models on here calling for a week of cold rains actually ends up reality. I think Monday into TuesdayAM  is wet and then the whole thing slides south East.

No heat wave?

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Time play everyone's favorite game in spring....

Wheel!!!!!!! Oh!!!!!!!!!.........  RHEAAAA!!!!!!!!

 

May13_H5GIF.gif

That needs to be inserted into the weenie Dictionary as exhibit A of that term. Great visual, just endless easterly flow above that thing. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes.. I for one would be dumbfounded and utterly shocked of these guys / models on here calling for a week of cold rains actually ends up reality. I think Monday into TuesdayAM  is wet and then the whole thing slides south East.

I can already see the photos posted of small patches of blue overhead in between rounds of showers while you try to show other SNE posters that it’s not all doom and gloom.  

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That needs to be inserted into the weenie Dictionary as exhibit A of that term. Great visual, just endless easterly flow above that thing. 

That's just it ... that's not the case with that thing - ...Oh I get the example. But in this case, beyond Tuesday there's almost no gradient beneath that thing and it's just a left over whirl at mid levels...

Not sure why people are evading the optimism here - it does begin to come of an wantonly so -

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

That's just it ... that's not the case with that thing - ...Oh I get the example. But in this case, beyond Tuesday there's almost no gradient beneath that thing and it's just a left over whirl at mid levels...

Not sure why people are evading the optimism here - it doesn't begin to come of an wantonly so -

I think it’ll be nicer up here, it usually is in those cases as NW New England tries to get away from the maritime junk.  

I honestly haven’t looked at a damn thing except that gif Will posted, I’ll trust your analysis as it seems you looked deeper into it.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Time play everyone's favorite game in spring....

Wheel!!!!!!! Oh!!!!!!!!!.........  RHEAAAA!!!!!!!!

 

I have seen it in a few posts now but can't figure it out.  What is RHEA?

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2 minutes ago, klw said:

Meanwhile we have another Freeze Warning up here for tonight.

Today finally felt like we were coming out of it.  Saw 54F on my car at 4pm, getting warm in the sunshine.  However a dew of 18F means the breeze still has a little chill to it.  

Now we just need some leaves.  I’m so ready for that fresh green of spring and done with stick season.

94702206-3C8D-480A-ADFC-EAB222B19414.jpeg.3ce054c88d86d3d76e526cf4ed649f92.jpeg

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8 hours ago, weathafella said:

I think that was the year we had the crucial Memorial Day weekend series between the Yankees and Twins.  Earl Battey vs Elston Howard battling for premier catcher in the league status.  Memorial Day weekend reached 99 at Central Park.

I'd go with 1969 as the Memorial Day scorcher, with NYC hitting 97 on either 30th or 31st (can't recall which), tied with 1987 for 2nd warmest.  The 99 in 1962 came on the 19th and fortunately was modest dews (50s to low 60s?)  When the 1 PM NYC temp of 89 became 95 an hour later my friend and I forgot about playing baseball and sought some shade.

And responding to Will's post about Boston's 2 record lows this month, 1st time since 1967 - that month also had some cool afternoons.  5/25 was a northeast storm that held NYC to a high of 46, about 30F BN, and with winds strong enough to fell newly leafed-out trees at my NNJ workplace.  We'd had 3" of snow on 4/27 that year, and co-workers on a fishing trip past Towanda, PA had an inch of sleet on the 1st Saturday of May. 

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25 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I'd go with 1969 as the Memorial Day scorcher, with NYC hitting 97 on either 30th or 31st (can't recall which), tied with 1987 for 2nd warmest.  The 99 in 1962 came on the 19th and fortunately was modest dews (50s to low 60s?)  When the 1 PM NYC temp of 89 became 95 an hour later my friend and I forgot about playing baseball and sought some shade.

And responding to Will's post about Boston's 2 record lows this month, 1st time since 1967 - that month also had some cool afternoons.  5/25 was a northeast storm that held NYC to a high of 46, about 30F BN, and with winds strong enough to fell newly leafed-out trees at my NNJ workplace.  We'd had 3" of snow on 4/27 that year, and co-workers on a fishing trip past Towanda, PA had an inch of sleet on the 1st Saturday of May. 

I’m thinking of ‘62 then for sure!  I was a teenager.  I do remember it being cool in 67 but I was in upstate NY until late May.

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33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They were on 85-90 

 


Even then, it`s still close
enough to keep most of the area a bit wet and cool. So stuck with
blend, but please don`t put too much value in it. In this kind of
pattern, the forecast will change.

Heat wave?

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