mob1 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 The cell SE of Columbus GA looked mildly interesting for a few scans, though it's in a bit of a crappy radar spot at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 I think the cells currently near Houston are some of the ones in particular that need to be watched as they head east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Might see some half dollar hail in Dallas, TX in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Have an inkling that Nacogdoches storm in E TX might do something as it encounters increasing MLCAPE in LA and eventually S MS. Seems to be pretty close to the warm front at the moment. S MS seems to be the sweet spot. Already seeing 2000-3000 MLCAPE in a good chunk of the MOD risk area. Bassfield and Laurel unfortunately appear to be in the crosshairs once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Derek30 said: Have an inkling that Nacogdoches storm in E TX might do something as it encounters increasing MLCAPE in LA and eventually S MS. Seems to be pretty close to the warm front at the moment. S MS seems to be the sweet spot. Already seeing 2000-3000 MLCAPE in a good chunk of the MOD risk area. Bassfield and Laurel unfortunately appear to be in the crosshairs once again Large area of clearing/sun in South Louisiana into Mississippi. Instability should be no issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Lots and lots of messy stuff so far (not unexpected exactly)... that convection off the coast of Louisiana is a bit concerning in regard to the upstream effects it’ll have wrt SFC moisture and LRs (instability). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 minute ago, TampaTwo said: This is my early call on where SPC may set a PDS watch box for later this afternoon/tonight....and the purple inset is my guess as to the highest threat zone. Yeah I was thinking the same thing this morning seeing where that MCS passed to the north, leaving this whole area untouched. Also surface temps to the north not that great, south much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2020 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA... ..SUMMARY A SEVERE-WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE DELTA REGION EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. MULTIPLE EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN TORNADOES (SOME STRONG), DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ..TX/LA/MS/AL SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THESE STORMS ARE IN A REGION OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE CAPE, ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS, WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER CELLS. LOCAL VAD PROFILES ALSO SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADES - ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LA EASTWARD INTO MS/AL. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL TRACK ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE. HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME QUITE LARGE THROUGH THE DAY, SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES IN THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY FORM. A FEW OF THE CLUSTERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INTO FAST-MOVING BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE CORRIDOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT (WITHIN THE MDT RISK) MAY SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ..AL/GA/SC A LARGE SHIELD OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING PARTS AL/GA/SC TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT IS BUILDING NORTHWARD, AND IS NEARING THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CONVECTION. ONCE THAT OCCURS, SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WILL BE REALIZED BY THE STORMS AND THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF TORNADOES. LATER TONIGHT, STORMS OVER MS/AL WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND ALSO AFFECT THIS REGION. PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH A CONSIDERABLE RISK OF BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, AND THE THREAT OF SUPERCELL STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES (SOME STRONG). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 29 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Might see some half dollar hail in Dallas, TX in a bit Reported 1/2" here at Love Field. Larger hail reported areas west to as large as half dollar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Latest run of the RAP really has the tornado threat increasing after sunset with the LLJ cranking up. Sig Tors actually rise after dark and continue to rise all night long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Dang, they put the 1630Z outlook out 25 minutes early.. Rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Looks like some clearing is trying to happen north of the outflow boundary across southern Alabama & Mississippi; this might be enough to force the effective warm front further north. As referenced in the BMX tweet though, its not going to be easy with that high pressure in Georgia, in addition to the sharp nature of the front with only upper 50s temperatures on the cool side of the boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 storms developing within the warm sector on an outflow boundary over SE AL and SW GA , within the warm sector they look linear for now but something to keep an eye on edit: these appear to be north of an outlfow boundary seen moving south on EOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Looks like some clearing is trying to happen north of the outflow boundary across southern Alabama & Mississippi; this might be enough to force the effective warm front further north. As referenced in the BMX tweet though, its not going to be easy with that high pressure in Georgia, in addition to the sharp nature of the front with only upper 50s temperatures on the cool side of the boundary. I also think those morning storms north of the front provided a decent amount of evaporational cooling reinforcing it. Kind of similar to what happened in northern IL last month with the severe weather bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 VAD out of Houston showing an increase in winds aloft the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Watch out, not PDS 90/70 tor probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 New TOR watch for MS has some intense probs. 90/70 for a non-PDS watch is rather interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Really surprised that's not PDS given the verbiage and the probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 holy hell 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOUISIANA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Normal watch no pds East LA and southern MS until 7pm local time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Looks like we have initial rotation over TX/LA border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 It's not PDS due to the EF2+ odds. In watch 110 it was 95/90. Here it is 90/70 over similar areas. Difference between a "couple" intense tornadoes, and "several" intense tornadoes. Not saying whether or not that's right, just guessing why the issuing met didn't choose PDS language. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: holy hell That is the scariest storm photo Ive ever seen outside from a tornado or hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 I'm pretty sure Patrick Marsh explain PDS watches as: Sig tor values over 70% are automatically PDS, anything 70% or lower is at forecaster discretion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Probably gonna need a TOR warning sometime soon on that Shelby Co Texas storm if the rotation strengthens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 That Houston photo is a classic all by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Also watching a pair of cells northeast of Victoria, TX. The northern one does have some mid-level rotation evident and moving into an undisturbed environment as it moves towards the southern half of metro Houston. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, StormySquares said: I'm pretty sure Patrick Marsh explain PDS watches as: Sig tor values over 70% are automatically PDS, anything 70% or lower is at forecaster discretion. As an interesting side note, it says there is an 80% chance of 10 or more severe hail events/ 80% chance of 1 or more 2" hail reports. Last Sunday, there were just a few hail reports in all of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia combined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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