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April 15-17 Snow


Hoosier
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6 hours ago, Stebo said:

Don't use 10:1.

 Yesterday's 1.4" of snow here actually melted down to exactly 0.14" of water.  One of the rare times exactly 10:1 actually happened. Of course, realistically during the heaviest rates it was probably a little better than 10:1 and then in the slower rates a little bit of QPF was wasted

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For local purposes, one of the negatives that has crept in is slower timing.  This extends a bit more precip into the late Fri morning timeframe when the sun angle will be a factor as precip rates decrease from what they will be earlier on.  

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First winter storm warning of the season here. Is this going to be the storm that finally beats the Halloween snow for the #1 spot??

In the past 3 years, I've had 3 winter storm warnings and 1 blizzard warning. Only one of those occurred during met or solar winter!! None of them were preceded by a watch. (winter weather advisory is the new winter storm watch, change my mind). I certainly don't envy the meteorologists at this point, trying to pinpoint a thread the needle event with insane cutoffs in accumulation.

Everything about this is so incredibly absurd. How can this much snow be possible in April at 40°N and sub 1000ft elevations? Why do the thermal parameters struggle all winter but seem to line up just 2 months before solar maximum??? I don't like cold springs, but this is too wild and I hope I get crushed by the death band here. My weakest plants were probably already killed off in the snow yesterday.

For those that need yet another model to fret over, the HRRRv4 is now live on the College of DuPage site.

wtfagain2.thumb.png.c3359759c3ebba2661748dd2ae90e8cb.png

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nice returns in northeast KS, which will feed the snow area more with time.

Would rather be about 30 miles south of where I am.  I guess I could use some of the Chicago Storm optimism.

And it's high confidence optimistic that it ends up a bit north of most guidance too.

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

And it's high confidence optimistic that it ends up a bit north of most guidance too.

giphy.gif.0e5fcb140384151f86583ad08caf3bef.gif

 

I did notice there seems to be better returns than progged out in northern Nebraska, but nothing really stood out as far as the main band running farther north.  Where would you put the northern edge of the 6" area in the LOT cwa?

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

giphy.gif.0e5fcb140384151f86583ad08caf3bef.gif

 

I did notice there seems to be better returns than progged out in northern Nebraska, but nothing really stood out as far as the main band running farther north.  Where would you put the northern edge of the 6" area in the LOT cwa?

If we see 6" totals that far east (Obviously depends on how quickly things dampen with east extent), I would say into S Cook Co.

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