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Easter Weekend Severe Thread


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Big hook between Lueders and Albany.  Artifacts on the KDYX radar near the radar site might make the strength of the rotation look stronger that it actually is, but I would not be surprised to see a tornado warning if the rotation strengthens.

 

EDIT: good news is that the rotation looks pretty ragged as it moves into Albany.  This could change, however.

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There is a huge storm coming into the north side of the Del Rio area right now.  The storm core is still on the Mexican side of the border, but I'm surprised that there is not a severe thunderstorm warning out already given the proximity.

 

34 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Little worried for the metroplex tbh

We are getting some rain right now, so that might have a stabilizing effect.  Interestingly enough the area of rain seems to be under the cloud debris from the storms that went up down by San Angelo.  Many years ago I remember how anvil rain eroded a cap over the Metroplex and caused supercells to form unexpectedly; not expecting tonight will be like that though.

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3 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

There is a huge storm coming into the north side of the Del Rio area right now.  The storm core is still on the Mexican side of the border, but I'm surprised that there is not a severe thunderstorm warning out already given the proximity.

was just about to post this

this is the start of the show... ......models develop this into a complex and move it across the deep south

but this is what could mess things up for tomorrow as I menioned

edit:T-storm warned now

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

SPC down playing TOR threat 

01z outlook

 THE ONLY  
CHANGE ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE REMOVAL OF THE 10% TORNADO  
PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OK INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF  
THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WHERE ONGOING STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A  
RATHER MESSY MODE THROUGH MULTIPLE INTERACTIONS/MERGERS.   
   

 

That was the northern unhatched 10% region. The southern hatched 10% region still remains from Del Rio to Austin.

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4 minutes ago, MUWX said:

This thing could be trouble  for San Antonio in a couple hours 

That's what I was thinking.  It would need to follow US-90 for that to happen though; if the storm continues to take a right turn it might pass just south of the metro if it holds together.  Even if it took somewhat of a left turn relative to the US-90 corridor (that's doubtful), San Antonio sprawls out much more to the north than to the south.  The most intense part of the storm is still about 40 minutes from Brackettville; eastward motion is only 25 mph.  San Antonio has several hours before this particular storm hits, but if anything develops ahead of this they could get storms sooner.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 102  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
840 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 840 PM  
  UNTIL 400 AM CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
  WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3  
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75  
    MPH LIKELY  

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Main event might actually start a little bit later.

 

mcd0339.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0339
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

   Areas affected...The Edwards Plateau area of Texas and adjacent Rio
   Grande Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 120051Z - 120215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe risk is forecast to increase with time across the
   Edwards Plateau and vicinity.  Large hail should be the main risk,
   though potential for locally damaging winds a possibly a tornado or
   two will also exist.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a persistent storm just to the
   Mexican side of the Rio Grande west of Del Rio, which has
   intensified over the past half hour.  High-res CAM output continues
   to suggest that an isolated storm or two may cross the River into
   the Val Verde/Edwards/Kinney County vicinity this evening,
   consistent with the evolution of this cell.

   Other congested cumulus over the Mexican higher terrain has remained
   steady-state, with some signs of decrease recently, in conjunction
   with diurnal cooling.  However, as ascent with the approaching
   southern AZ upper low continues advancing eastward, a later, more
   widespread increase in storms is expected across southwestern Texas.
    A consistent signal persists in CAM output that rather rapid,
   widespread convective development -- separate from the current storm
   -- will occur, within the 04Z to 06Z time frame.  The expected,
   isolated nature of the current convection may permit delay in WW
   issuance in the short term.  Potential for watch issuance will
   increase later this evening however, as the aforementioned UVV
   spreads eastward toward this region.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 04/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29470169 30110178 30450141 30570027 30459989 29949951
               29359973 28920054 29470169
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Oof, that's a stout watch.

 

Quote

WWUS40 KWNS 120135
WWP2

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020

WT 0102
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES       :  50%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  70%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2.

$$

 

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Yikes, RAP has the effective SigTor values exploding west of San Antonio over the next few hours.  Another plume of increased effective SigTor is apparent moving towards DFW.  This does not mean that storms will exploit this, especially for DFW, but San Antonio might as well be playing with fire given that storms might actually exploit those SigTor values down that way.

Might be a different story for DFW if that storm west of Mineral Wells holds together, but that seemed to weaken once it hit the cooler airmass.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
858 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN KINNEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  WEST CENTRAL UVALDE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 858 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR BRACKETTVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  BRACKETTVILLE, SPOFFORD, ANACACHO, TURKEY MOUNTAIN AND FORT CLARK  
  SPRINGS.  

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Additional convection is now going up, behind the initial supercell, from around Langtry, TX south to the Serranias del Burro. 

Unfortunately it is going to be difficult to clearly see any rotation on the initial supercell near Brackettville as it passes near/over the radar site.  Radar imagery should get better again once the storm approaches the east end of the current warning polygon (provided that severe weather doesn't damage the radar, of course).

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The supercell just north of Uvalde seems to have taken somewhat of a left turn, now aiming it towards the San Antonio metro area, provided that it holds together and remains on this track.  The most intense part of the storm is probably about halfway between Del Rio and San Antonio now, though I would not expect the storm to impact the San Antonio area until after 12am (likely sometime after that).

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