Easter Weekend Severe Thread

[Quincy]

3 hours ago, Indystorm said:

And in some action for Good Friday night....

  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
855 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL   
  TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 854 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH OF  
  REAGAN COUNTY AIRPORT, OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG LAKE, MOVING  
  EAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
  
  HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.   
           EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS,   
           SIDING, AND VEHICLES.  
  
* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
  NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...  
  THE INTERSECTION OF US 190 AND HIGHWAY 163.  

That was quite a hail producer. 

 

[brianc33710]

I can't share the new Day 2 outlook for Sunday. But, the only real expansion by the SPC is the enhanced level stretched into KY. While I did expect them to broaden the MOD to include more of AL & into TN, the delay in pulling the High Risk lever doesn't surprise me.

[Calderon]

Two things for discussion:

James Spann actually thinks that the SPC will go with the High Risk next update, which seems a little too soon. But he has 40 + years of experience so I will defer to him.

Also, is the Nashville, TN EF-4 the only violent tornado so far in 2020? I know that they also had an EF-3, but their NWS office did find some EF-4 damage.

Yes.

 

Nashville was an EF3, Cookeville was the EF4.

[Sydney Claridge]

The looming question for myself and others in north-central Texas is whether convection will evolve to the west and create a cold pool over the area today.  Several models are now suggesting that this will not happen; out of the five CAMs available on the Pivotal Weather website only the NAM3k is going with a cold-pool solution.  Those other CAMs get the DFW Metroplex into a moist, unstable atmosphere from about 1pm (18z) onwards.   The NAM3k had convection going up around Midland at about this time, but observations show that this has not happened yet.

I will definitely be watching how widespread any convection to the west may develop this morning.  If a cold pool fails to develop and the afternoon temperatures get well into the 70s, then I would not be surprised if a more substantial severe weather threat evolves in my area later today.

[janetjanet998]

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0743 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2020  
  
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX EASTWARD TO EAST CENTRAL  
TX...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY  
MORNING. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL  
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  
   
..SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT  
  
A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE  
EASTWARD TODAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AZ BORDER.  THE CLOSED LOW WILL  
BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD TO WEST TX  
BY EARLY SUNDAY, IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING  
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN BC.  AT THE SURFACE, A LEE CYCLONE  
IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE LEE CYCLONE WILL INDUCE STRENGTHENING  
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS THE REMNANT FRONT NEAR THE TX COAST RETREATS  
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.  
   
..NORTHWEST TX TODAY TO SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN MS OVERNIGHT  
  
THE INITIAL CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 18Z ACROSS  
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TX, IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM  
ADVECTION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  THE INITIAL  
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST  
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8 C/KM  
AND MUCAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER  
SOUTH IN TX WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL  
FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MID  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST.  DEEP-LAYER  
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS, AND LOW-LEVEL  
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON, SUGGESTING SOME  
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHWEST TX.  THE WARM  
ADVECTION STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX, AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN MS  
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR AT  
LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.  
   
..SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING  
  
A SEPARATE AREA OF POTENTIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE  
ALONG A DEVELOPING DRYLINE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE ACROSS  
NORTHWEST OK INTO CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MODEST FORCING  
FOR ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE, COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND  
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT, WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR  
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL FROM ROUGHLY 22-02Z, WITH THE SOMEWHAT  
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWESTWARD  
EXTENT.  
   
..EDWARDS PLATEAU ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT  
  
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BY  
ROUGHLY 06Z AS INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ENCOUNTER  
THE STRONG BUOYANCY ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE.  SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY, BUT RATHER QUICK  
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED, AND THE CONVECTION  
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL TX ALONG THE  
WARM FRONT THROUGH 12Z, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN CLOSEST  
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR.  VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING  
WINDS, AND A COUPLE OF TORN

 

ADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.    

 

AY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1259 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2020  
  
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF  
MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA......  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO  
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED FROM LOUISIANA  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG  
TORNADOES, POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE  
ALL POSSIBLE.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TO THE  
LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING, AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD  
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS IT  
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL  
ENCOMPASS NEARLY ALL THE CONUS BY 12Z MONDAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH  
THE EJECTING TROUGH, A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE  
MID-MS VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY, AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY  
INTENSIFY INTO AN INTENSE CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z  
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS  
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE  
DEPARTING CYCLONE.   
  
...EAST TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TN  
VALLEY...  
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT  
12Z SUNDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE OVER EAST TX AND POTENTIALLY INTO  
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE INTENSITY AND AREAL EXTENT OF  
ANY SUCH CLUSTERS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY  
WILL FAVOR A THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH ANY ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO  
BE PRESENT SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS THAT BEGIN  
TO INTERACT WITH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE WARM FRONT. AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD,  
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION,  
WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON  
WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS, GIVEN RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE AND SHEAR. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, EVOLUTION INTO A QLCS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A CORRESPONDING RISK OF DAMAGING WIND INTO  
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY.   
  
MEANWHILE, FURTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IS  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION, WHICH  
WILL BE MODULATED BY THE IMPACT OF OUTFLOW FROM ANY EARLY CONVECTION  
DESCRIBED ABOVE. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 70-100 KT AS A  
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES INTO THE 40-60 KT  
RANGE. THESE WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE  
OF 1500-3000 J/KG) WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE  
SUPERCELLS. ANY SURFACE-BASED INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF A  
PSEUDO-DRYLINE MOVING INTO WESTERN LA BY LATE AFTERNOON COULD EVOLVE  
INTO ONE OR MORE LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG  
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE EXTENT OF  
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, GIVEN  
THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION AND GENERALLY SUBTLE FOCI FOR  
INITIATION.   
  
WHILE THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE QUITE HIGH  
IF SUPERCELLS DEVELOP, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW CONVECTION  
WILL EVOLVE FROM THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW  
RELATED TO EARLY CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF  
THE HIGHER-END TORNADO POTENTIAL, AND SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN A MIDLEVEL MOIST PLUME  
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD EITHER  
DAMPEN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, OR EVOLVE INTO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION  
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, THERE IS TOO  
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO UPGRADE THE ONGOING OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.   
  
EVOLUTION INTO MORE OF QLCS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST GUIDANCE BY SUNDAY  
EVENING, WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASING THREAT OF WIDESPREAD  
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF AL INTO  
WESTERN/CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHER WIND  
PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN  
THIS SCENARIO GROWS.   
   
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU  
  
WHILE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY LIMIT  
TRANSPORT OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS/OZARKS, MORE  
MODEST MOISTURE THAT WAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD  
REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE  
DESTABILIZATION. WIND PROFILES WILL LIKELY NOT FAVOR CLASSIC  
SUPERCELLS, WITH SOME BACKING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED, BUT  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. LARGE  
HAIL (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH SOME  
WIND POTENTIAL IF ANY UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS. WIND PROFILES WILL NOT  
GENERALLY FAVOR TORNADO POTENTIAL, THOUGH ROBUST UPDRAFTS  
INTERACTING WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED VORTICITY NEAR THE SURFACE CYCLONE  
COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO.   
   
..TN VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY -- SUNDAY NIGHT  
  
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
DESTABILIZATION FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE OH  
VALLEY, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH  
OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER, RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS IN ADVANCE  
OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING  
WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO RISK BY SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD EVEN MODEST  
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR, AS STRONG CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST IN TANDEM WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE.   
   
.. EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC  
  
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN GA INTO  
THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A NONZERO  
RISK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING  
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING, WHICH WOULD POSE SOME RISK OF LOCALLY  
DAMAGING WIND OR PERHAPS A TORNADO, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO  
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR WIDESPREAD  
UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OR A QLCS AND  
MOVE INTO THIS REGION SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INTENSE WIND  
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW  
TORNADOES, GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.   
  
THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL  
BE DETERMINED IN PART BY HOW FAST ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST. IF CONVECTION ACCELERATES AND ARRIVES FASTER THAT  
CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE, THEN THERE IS LESS TIME FOR  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION, AND THE MAGNITUDE AND  
NORTHWARD-EXTENT OF THE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. IF CONVECTION DOES  
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD, THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL  
SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE. IF SOME OF THE SLOWER GUIDANCE TURNS OUT  
TO BE ACCURATE, THEN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION MAY  
NOT COME UNTIL THE D3/MONDAY PERIOD. PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE  
INCREASED IN THIS AREA ONCE THE DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.  
  
..DEAN/BROYLES.. 04/11/2020  
  

[Sydney Claridge]

It looks as if there is some convective initiation starting immediately north of Abilene, TX.  Some additional areas of potential initiation also seem apparent on radar SE of there and over the Hill Country.  I will be closely watching to see how widespread any convection can become.

[Sydney Claridge]

This leading convective activity from west of Waco to northeast of Abilene may put a wrench into any possible model solutions for today.  Even the NAM3k backed off on showing widespread morning convection.  But it is all moving northeasterly, and the warm, moist airmass lies to the west of these initial elevated storms. Unless more widespread convection develops in the wake of these storms, I would not be surprised to see surface instability move in after the passage of these storms.  If surface temperatures and dewpoints were higher, I would be much more concerned with severe storm activity, especially considering that I am seeing sunshine here in west Fort Worth.

That said, the storm north of Albany, TX could also be on the verge of turning severe for large hail.  EDIT: it just went severe for up to half-dollar sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

[Sydney Claridge]

The field of agitated cumulus south of Lubbock could evolve into one of the severe storm threats later today, as it moves east.  This is where the CAMs suggested convective activity would initiate later, but said models did not predict the activity currently over north Texas (earlier NAM3k runs did, but more widespread than current observations).  Outside of the larger storms near Graham and the complex NW of Waco, the current convective activity over north Texas seems to be doing very little to suppress insolation in the surrounding area (there is still plenty of sunshine at my location in west Fort Worth for instance), although satellite imagery does show cloudier conditions behind this activity.  The back edge of this activity also looks to be a straight line from Waco to Graham, with almost nothing behind that.  Unless we get additional convective activity immediately behind this, I think north-central Texas ends up seeing a good amount of surface-based instability this afternoon.  What to watch for is if this initial convective activity lays down any outflow boundaries that Round 2 could exploit.

[janetjanet998]

new day 1 10% TOR over NW texas

and 10% hatched over SAT and areas SW

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1124 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2020  
  
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z  
   
..THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TX  
  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT  
PLAINS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH  
EARLY MORNING. VERY LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND SCATTERED DAMAGING  
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE AZ/SONORA BORDER WILL EVOLVE INTO  
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT REACHES THE TX TRANS-PECOS AND NORTHEAST  
CHIHUAHUA BY EARLY MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH  
DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE  
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LEE CYCLONE WILL INDUCE STRENGTHENING  
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AS THE REMNANT FRONT NEAR THE TX COAST  
ADVANCES NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.  
   
..NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK TO THE ARK-LA-MISS  
  
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX, IN  
A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE  
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF  
THE EXPANDING BUOYANCY PLUME, AS IT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE REST  
OF THE PERIOD, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION.  
  
FARTHER WEST, POCKETS OF GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WITHIN THE  
PLUME OF UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT A  
BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1500-2500  
J/KG. AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS  
NORTHWEST TX AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX THIS  
EVENING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE SHOULD BE FROM LARGE HAIL,  
BUT A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.  
   
..SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX  
  
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS  
PLATEAU BETWEEN 03-06Z AS INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT  
ENCOUNTER THE STRONG BUOYANCY ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF RATHER RICH  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A COUPLE INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY  
FROM THE DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO VICINITY WHERE ALL SIGNIFICANT  
SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BROADER CLUSTER  
IS LIKELY INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX THROUGH EARLY MORNING. VERY LARGE  
HAIL, A FEW TORNADOES, AND A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE  
POSSIBLE FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK.  

[janetjanet998]

HRRR has discrete cells over red river area  and a little south 20z-04z 

then when that gets tamed the development SW of SAT

[Sydney Claridge]

You don’t see hatching on a 15% wind risk that often, as SPC has out now up to and SW of San Antonio; most times hatched wind is not seen unless there is a 30%+ wind risk.  Looks like the more intense storms could initiate around the Serranias del Burro of northern Mexico.

I also got a quick-hitting convective shower at my location.  The question is how much of a cold pool these storms over N TX are leaving behind.  There is a prominent cold pool (lower 60s temperatures) just south of the Metroplex, and a lesser cold pool just to the NW of the Metroplex, but most DFW-area temperatures (except for Denton and Waxahachie) are in the mid-60s.  The urban heat island could account for this, but the more intense storm cores went south and NW of the center of the Metroplex.  SPC did trim the ENH risk further SW from N TX, however.

Convective initiation is also underway SE of Lubbock at this time.

[janetjanet998]

new day 2 

SPC now talking about the potential crapvection  in the warm sector

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1235 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020  
  
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN  
LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN ALABAMA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO  
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED FROM LOUISIANA  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG  
TORNADOES, POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE  
ALL POSSIBLE.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TO THE  
LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING, AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD  
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS IT  
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL  
ENCOMPASS NEARLY ALL THE CONUS BY 12Z MONDAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH  
THE EJECTING TROUGH, A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE  
MID-MS VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY, AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY  
INTENSIFY INTO AN INTENSE CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z  
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS  
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE  
DEPARTING CYCLONE.   
  
...EAST TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TN  
VALLEY...  
  
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT  
12Z SUNDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE OVER EAST TX AND POTENTIALLY INTO  
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE INTENSITY AND AREAL EXTENT OF  
ANY SUCH CLUSTERS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY  
WILL FAVOR A THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH ANY ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO  
BE PRESENT SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS THAT BEGIN  
TO INTERACT WITH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE WARM FRONT. AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD,  
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION,  
WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON  
WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS, GIVEN RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE AND SHEAR. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, EVOLUTION INTO A QLCS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND INTO PORTIONS OF THE  
TN VALLEY.   
  
FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO  
DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION, WHICH WILL BE  
MODULATED BY THE IMPACT OF OUTFLOW FROM ANY EARLY CONVECTION  
DESCRIBED ABOVE. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 70-100 KT AS A  
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES INTO THE 40-60 KT  
 RANGE. THESE WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE  
OF 1500-3000 J/KG) WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE  
SUPERCELLS. ANY SURFACE-BASED INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF A  
PSEUDO-DRYLINE MOVING INTO WESTERN LA BY LATE AFTERNOON COULD EVOLVE  
INTO ONE OR MORE LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG  
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE EXTENT OF  
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, GIVEN  
THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION AND GENERALLY SUBTLE FOCI FOR  
INITIATION.   
  
WHILE THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE QUITE HIGH  
IF SUPERCELLS DEVELOP, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW CONVECTION  
WILL EVOLVE FROM THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW  
RELATED TO EARLY CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF  
THE HIGHER-END TORNADO POTENTIAL, AND SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN A MIDLEVEL MOIST PLUME  
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD EITHER  
DAMPEN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, OR EVOLVE INTO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION  
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, THERE IS TOO  
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO UPGRADE THE ONGOING OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.   
  
EVOLUTION INTO MORE OF QLCS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST GUIDANCE BY SUNDAY  
EVENING, WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASING THREAT OF WIDESPREAD  
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF AL INTO  
WESTERN/CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHER WIND  
PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN  
THIS SCENARIO GROWS.   
   
..TN VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY -- SUNDAY NIGHT  
  
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
DESTABILIZATION FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE OH  
VALLEY, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH  
OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER, RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS IN ADVANCE  
OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING  
WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO RISK BY SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD EVEN MODEST  
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR, AS STRONG CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST IN TANDEM WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE.   
  
 ... EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC...  
  
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN GA INTO  
THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A NONZERO  
RISK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING  
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING, WHICH WOULD POSE SOME RISK OF LOCALLY  
DAMAGING WIND OR PERHAPS A TORNADO, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO  
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR WIDESPREAD  
UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OR A QLCS AND  
MOVE INTO THIS REGION SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INTENSE WIND  
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES,  
GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.   
  
THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL  
BE DETERMINED IN PART BY HOW FAST ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST. IF CONVECTION ACCELERATES AND ARRIVES FASTER THAT  
CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE, THEN THERE IS LESS TIME FOR  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION, AND THE MAGNITUDE AND  
NORTHWARD-EXTENT OF THE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. IF CONVECTION DOES  
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD, THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL  
SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE. IF SOME OF THE SLOWER GUIDANCE TURNS OUT  
TO BE ACCURATE, THEN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION MAY  
NOT COME UNTIL THE D3/MONDAY PERIOD. PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE  
INCREASED IN THIS AREA ONCE THE DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.  

[janetjanet998]

WEST TX MESO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1247 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...PERMIAN BASIN/TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO FAR NORTHWEST TX  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 111747Z - 111945Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF  
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  
  
DISCUSSION...GOES-16 MESOSECTOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN NUMEROUS ATTEMPTS  
AT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER  
THE PAST HOUR. A FEW OF THESE ATTEMPTS NOW APPEAR SUCCESSFUL, LIKELY  
AIDED BY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AUGMENTED BY  
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE  
AND STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE  
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, LEADING TO MORE CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND  
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.   
  
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS  
NORTHWARD AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS  
PLACED 60 DEG F DEWPOINTS FROM SPS IN FAR NORTHWEST TX TO ABOUT 25  
MILES NORTHWEST OF MAF IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES  
MLCAPE IS ALREADY AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG, WITH INCREASE TO AROUND  
2500 J/KG LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS  
INCREASING AS WELL, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL  
THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL.  
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INITIALLY, BUT COULD BECOME  
SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY ERODES FARTHER EAST.  
ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS WOULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS AND TORNADOES.  
  

[Sydney Claridge]

I'm awaiting the results of the 18z HRRR run, but the 17z run puts a big storm through the DFW area between 9-10pm (16z run also shows a big storm, and 15z shows lesser storms).  That said, HRRR is showing warmer temperatures than what we are actually observing at the present moment though (currently 66F in Fort Worth, but 17z HRRR projected 70 to 71F by now). 

Once this cold pool shifts northeast, the Metroplex may try to destabilize (though the cloud cover seems to be hampering things a little bit), and the boundary left behind is always a concern if a storm comes into proximity with it.

EDIT: 18z run did back off on placing storms in the DFW area.

[Chinook]

Can I just complain for 4 seconds here? Why is it that the NAM, which is our best model for about 24-48 hrs for severe weather, can't forecast CAPE for crap?

[janetjanet998]

  
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 100  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
200 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA  
  WESTERN AND NORTHWEST TEXAS  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL  
  1000 PM CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3  
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  

[Indystorm]

And so this Easter outbreak episode possibly begins with the first of many watches starting in nw and west TX and sw OK  which will probably continue through tonight, Easter Day and night, and possibly Monday as well in the Carolinas.

[brianc33710]

This is my take, for what its worth. Right now the dewpoint in Bham is 34. The highest dp in central AL is just 41. Yes, I know that the warm front comes thru tonight, but the of-needed 80 deg his, not just the 70 dps, are S of a line from Demopolis to Auburn. And the best dynamics are N of that line. Right now, I'm skeptical, and will go with a squall line like type of event. Feel free to disagree though.

Also, Broyles, who took the bold move of inserting the 45% contour inside the already HIGH risk 9 yrs ago, seems less than convinced for Sunday. Things can change though, and that would prove me wrong.

[janetjanet998]

The convection the models develop over TX tonight reminds me of the convection that developed over OK overnight two weeks ago that messed up the MOD risk for IL

it will be moving into MS/AL near or just before peak heating like it did over IL two weeks ago

while the atmosphere tries to recover behind it 

every outbreak is different though....time will tell

 

 

 

 

[brianc33710]

16 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

The convection the models develop over TX tonight reminds me of the convection that developed over OK overnight two weeks ago that messed up the MOD risk for IL

it will be moving into MS/AL near or just before peak heating like it did over IL two weeks ago

while the atmosphere tries to recover behind it 

every outbreak is different though....time will tell

Yeah. In discussions 6-12 hrs before that outbreak, the SPC mentioned pulling the High Risk trigger. By the time the outbreak began, the SPC said that they would stick w/ the MOD risk. The SE is closer to the Gulf though, so that warmth and moisture is closer to us than in IL.

 

 

 

 

 

[Amped]

13 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

The convection the models develop over TX tonight reminds me of the convection that developed over OK overnight two weeks ago that messed up the MOD risk for IL

it will be moving into MS/AL near or just before peak heating like it did over IL two weeks ago

while the atmosphere tries to recover behind it 

every outbreak is different though....time will tell

 

 

 

 

LLJ is way stronger in this outbreak.  It will quickly shove any morning crapvection  to the north of the outbreak area.   

[janetjanet998]

46 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

The convection the models develop over TX tonight reminds me of the convection that developed over OK overnight two weeks ago that messed up the MOD risk for IL

it will be moving into MS/AL near or just before peak heating like it did over IL two weeks ago

while the atmosphere tries to recover behind it 

every outbreak is different though....time will tell

 

 

 

 

18Z Nam nest are now leaning towards this....the convection over TX moves over MS/AL and more crapvection develops just behind it

the results is no deep surface based convection over MS/AL until after 03z and the storms are in a semi-line 

AR perhaps looks interesting late afternoon 

another scenario is that the TX storms and crapvection are more severe then models and there are two waves one mid-day and one late evening/overnight

Nowcast of course will be key

 

[MUWX]

The storm north of Abilene certainly has the look

[Sydney Claridge]

20 minutes ago, MUWX said:

The storm north of Abilene certainly has the look

Agreed. Definitely some rotation trying to form on it.

The question is how long these storms can remain intense with eastward extent, given the cooler temperatures further east.  You have mid-70s temperatures at Haskell, but two counties east at Graham, the temperature is in the upper-60s.  That said, areas to the east are warming and moistening as the cold pool from the earlier convection tries to erode.  Seems like that cold pool is persistently stubborn, especially just south of DFW, where Waxahachie continues to report 63F, but just south of there temperatures seem a lot warmer; Hillsboro is in the lower-70s. 

And there is another severe-warned storm north of Ardmore, OK as well.

[Indystorm]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
407 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 406 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER RULE, OR NEAR HASKELL, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  HASKELL AROUND 420 PM CDT.  
  IRBY AROUND 445 PM CDT.          First tor warning of this episode.

[Sydney Claridge]

Also watch that storm SW of the tornado-warned storm near Haskell.  That severe-warned storm E of Roby looks like it is trying to form a hook as well.  Rotation does not look as good at this time, though.

 

EDIT: well it looked like it was developing a hook.  Seems less obvious now.

 

EDIT 2: the hook is back.

[1900hurricane]

I'm starting to get a little more interested in the Del Rio to College Station corridor in the overnight period. As is typical with an overnight threat, low level lapse rates are not great and there is some capping involved. However, I do wonder if the combination of a lead shortwave and the ejection of the main trough might erode capping enough to get true surface based convection. I'm not usually too keen on overnight storms rooting to the surface in this region because of nocturnal decoupling in the boundary layer, but this may one of those times it has a better shot at happening. In any case, the SPC does have a 10% hatched risk from Del Rio to Austin for the overnight and mentions all modes of severe weather are possible.

 

[Sydney Claridge]

There's definitely a push of warmer, more humid air towards the DFW Metroplex now.  Cleburne is now reporting 70 with a dewpoint of 66, and Waxahachie has now warmed to near 70 (they were in the cold pool earlier).  Those severe storm parameters (EHI, SigTor, Supercell composite, etc.) are starting to creep northwards.  If this airmass pushes any further north (and it will), provided we get storms tonight, that might be cause for concern, especially if a boundary is in the vicinity.

[Bob's Burgers]

Conditions are getting much better near Dyess 

 

 

[Sydney Claridge]

What's crazy is that area near Albany was hit with tornadoes just a few weeks ago.