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April 12 Severe Event


joshwx2003
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Correlation coefficient shows that it's rain wrapping around the RFD, not a debris ball. So not a TDS. Radar station is to the NE, so the velocity signature in the screenshot I posted isn't as impressive as it may appear to the untrained eye. Can say the velocity signature has been all over the place in the past 15-20 min.

rs_ksjt_wdtr1_1586673125.png

rs_ksjt_wdtv1_1586672989.png

rs_ksjt_wdtcc1_1586673125.png

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The 06/07/08z HRRR runs have a cluster of supercells forming over western Mississippi by 21z that track into northern Alabama. NWS in Huntsville is describing the HRRR as an outlier in how far north it lifts the warm front- most models lift the warm front through at least northeastern AL, while HRRR is lifting the warm front north of the AL/TN border. That'd be the worst case scenario for northern AL, but at least it's an outlier. Warm front is still one thing to keep an eye on when looking at observations today.

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13 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

No hint from the SPC that we’ll see an upgrade at any point. Just too much uncertainty at the moment.

Yeah, this seems like it should stay MOD (at least for the next outlook).  Only scenario I see for an upgrade to HIGH is if there is the beginning of an outbreak underway.

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10 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Yeah, this seems like it should stay MOD (at least for the next outlook).  Only scenario I see for an upgrade to HIGH is if there is the beginning of an outbreak underway.

It’s a tough spot for them to be in too. The ceiling on today is incredibly high. 

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Hopefully cloud debris etc, can restrict heating.  remember everything has to be right for a major event to happen. Obviously the potential is there. I suspect the SPC is a bit less gung ho due to combination of the CAM's being subdued past couple of days plus recently there were a couple of events where they went high risk of off the charts tornado probs that fortunately did not pan out.

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3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Hopefully cloud debris etc, can restrict heating.  remember everything has to be right for a major event to happen. Obviously the potential is there. I suspect the SPC is a bit less gung ho due to combination of the CAM's being subdued past couple of days plus recently there were a couple of events where they went high risk of off the charts tornado probs that fortunately did not pan out.

I'm thinking that's why to this point they didn't go from Moderate to High. But given that this event has been moderate risk since day 3, even if they keep it moderate, there's plenty of warning out there that most normal "on the street" people should at least be heeding for the possibility that yes this may get ugly. and that in and of itself I hope helps save lives, no matter what the final outcome is at this point.

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Yeah hate reading this on the last SPC update...

The main question with this outlook is convective mode. There are
   two possibilities.  The first is that the band of thunderstorms will
   have discrete elements and gaps that will be favorable for
   supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings at 15Z from southern
   Virginia southward into northern South Carolina show looped
   hodographs with 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the extreme
   catogory, generally near or above 600 m2/s2. This would support a
   threat for strong tornadoes associated with the more dominant
   supercells. A wind damage and hail threat would be likely with
   supercells and with the more organized line segments. 

   The second scenario would be that a squall-line is ongoing at 12Z
   from eastern Georgia northward into the western Carolinas and
   Virginia. In that case, widespread wind damage would be likely. A
   QLCS tornado threat would exist with the stronger bowing line
   segments. Hail would also be possible with the more intense parts of
   the line.

   At this time, the outlook reflects the first scenario in which more
   discrete cells are present across the warm sector at 12Z. In this
   case, a cluster outbreak of tornadoes would be possible and a strong
   long-track tornado or two can not be ruled out.
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I’d say a localized outbreak of tornadic supercells is most probable from central to northeastern MS and northern AL. The ongoing convective activity will probably temper the threat a bit farther NW, but even there you’ll likely see a few QLCS tornadoes and maybe a few embedded supercells. 

That environment advecting NE from Louisiana toward MS is going to be nasty once you get just a few hours of daytime heating. 

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3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 


Not sure where you are see that. For the most part I’ve read that nothing is off the table. So much uncertainty with this.


.

 

This is spot on. The ceiling is incredibly high today, but we don’t know how things are going to break yet, and likely won’t for a few more hours.

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