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April 11-13 Snowy/Rainy/Windy Affair


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7 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I did not know that.

On average 20 inches of glacier pack is left.  A little more/less in some spots.

We had a lot of graupel showers here on Thursday afternoon. They always remind me of dippin dots lol. Mlive posted an article about it, and I too did not realize what it was until they posted this. We ended up having regular snowflakes Thursday evening so there was still "real" snow lol, but now next time I see Fall or Spring graupel I will know that that technically is snow, unlike sleet or hail (even though sleet or even hail technically counts in the snow column of weather records).

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2020/04/is-it-hail-is-it-sleet-no-its-graupel-falling-from-the-sky.html?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=aanews_sf&utm_source=facebook

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Now a SVR warned cell in far western Illinois, on track to affect areas between Macomb and Monmouth:

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
ILC067-071-109-187-112315-
/O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0037.200411T2225Z-200411T2315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
525 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

The National Weather Service in the Quad Cities has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Hancock County in west central Illinois...
  Southern Henderson County in west central Illinois...
  Southern Warren County in west central Illinois...
  Northern McDonough County in west central Illinois...

* Until 615 PM CDT.

* At 524 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Disco, or 12
  miles north of Carthage, moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* Locations impacted include...
  Bushnell, La Harpe, Roseville, Dallas City, Blandinsville, Good
  Hope, Prairie City, Terre Haute, Raritan, Sciota, Colusa, Adrian,
  Little Swan Lake, Disco, Walnut Grove, Greenbush, Lomax,
  Scottsburg, Warren County Fairgrounds and Swan Creek.
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17 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Since I'm less seasoned in winter weather, what do the odds of snow look like for Northern Ohio? I have people going nuts thinking a blizzard is coming in 48-72 hrs.

looking like no snow except for some snow showers possible during the week

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More active than expected in Western Illinois today.  Hoping that is not a precursor to tomorrow despite currently being in a Marginal Risk in central Illinois.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning now immediately to my west for a rogue warned cell southwest of Jacksonville.  If it continues to hold it could clip the south side of Springfield in about an hour:

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
657 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Scott County in west central Illinois...
  Southwestern Sangamon County in central Illinois...
  Southeastern Morgan County in west central Illinois...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 656 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Murrayville,
  or 7 miles east of Winchester, moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* Locations impacted include...
  Jacksonville, Alexander, New Berlin, Waverly, Loami, Franklin,
  Murrayville, Woodson, South Jacksonville, Thayer, Berlin,
  Lynnville, Nortonville, Lowder and Lake Jacksonville.

This includes Interstate 72 between mile markers 57 and 69, and
between mile markers 75 and 89.
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New Severe Thunderstorm Warning that now includes Springfield and southern Sangamon County:

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
731 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Christian County in central Illinois...
  Southern Sangamon County in central Illinois...

* Until 815 PM CDT.

* At 730 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Loami, or 9
  miles north of Virden, moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* Locations impacted include...
  Springfield, Taylorville, Chatham, Auburn, Rochester, Pawnee,
  Kincaid, Divernon, Edinburg, Loami, Bulpitt, Jeisyville, Southern
  View, Thayer, Tovey, Berry, Curran, Sangchris Lake State Park,
  Glenarm and Sharpsburg.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 55 between mile markers 77 and 94.
 Interstate 72 between mile markers 94 and 100.
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The Lakeshore Flood Warning for GRR's CWA is...something.
"IMPACTS...Significant erosion of beaches and dunes is expected. A loss of property is expected, with any buildings near the edge of the dune in danger of possibly falling. Any preparedness activities to mitigate damage should be taken today."

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19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was checking and current snow depths in the upper peninsula, and snow is for the most part gone except in the higher elevations.   And those same elevations will jackpot this storm.

Pretty much gone here in Hancock except for bigger piles from plowing, blowing snow, or scooped off roofs. Twin Lakes on the other hand still has quite of bit but there is some bare ground showing where it isn't shaded by trees. My fathers driveway is pretty much melted off except in front of the garage and that is pure ice. 

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Been MIA for awhile, lots of non COVID related stuff happening in life for me lately. 

Have had steady light snow this morning, nothing heavy besides a few bouts of bigger fluffy flakes but we've accumulated a 1/2" on the deck and grassy surfaces. Helping refresh my nearly melted driveway piles. The metro reached 60 yesterday and we've had some warmer days this spring then the past few years so soil temperatures are running in the mid 40s. I think my backyard will be 20-ish miles northwest of the heavier bands, already been missed to the south by better returns this morning. The Minnesota River seems to be the dividing line. 

The GFS really whiffed one this one with its southern solution. At least the 3k NAM picked up on the trends as soon as it got into range. Hoping for 4-6" IMBY. Could be our 3rd year in a row with a 6" storm in April. I think someone between Red Wing and Rochester will pick up 12" 

Can't wait to see those 3' totals up by you Bo. 

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35 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Been MIA for awhile, lots of non COVID related stuff happening in life for me lately. 

Have had steady light snow this morning, nothing heavy besides a few bouts of bigger fluffy flakes but we've accumulated a 1/2" on the deck and grassy surfaces. Helping refresh my nearly melted driveway piles. The metro reached 60 yesterday and we've had some warmer days this spring then the past few years so soil temperatures are running in the mid 40s. I think my backyard will be 20-ish miles northwest of the heavier bands, already been missed to the south by better returns this morning. The Minnesota River seems to be the dividing line. 

The GFS really whiffed one this one with its southern solution. At least the 3k NAM picked up on the trends as soon as it got into range. Hoping for 4-6" IMBY. Could be our 3rd year in a row with a 6" storm in April. I think someone between Red Wing and Rochester will pick up 12" 

Can't wait to see those 3' totals up by you Bo. 

This is getting ridiculous. 4 feet?  I'm starting to worry about possible roof issues.

Snow has started

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.37af55a86904229bd2731f92e91188f6.png

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19 hours ago, weatherbo said:

18z NAM (and other models) continues to pick up on a lake enhanced band of snow as the storm departs. This run NAM goes nuts with 3.5' of snow. Will be interesting to see hi-res models this evening.

555614323_snku_acc.us_mw(3).thumb.png.c129b0c3ca5c55be7458f7ba0cf0954f.png

 

 

Wow, good luck up there!

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

This is getting ridiculous. 4 feet?  I'm starting to worry about possible roof issues.

Snow has started

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.37af55a86904229bd2731f92e91188f6.png

I really highly doubt 4' as those models always have clown totals in big storms. However that said, I have no doubt your area will come in as the jackpot like often does. The strongest storms seem to hit your area outside the Winter months, and these strong storms which cause lower ratios for most folks pound you in the higher elevations with higher ratios. I was telling my mom about how much snow you are expecting, she still remembers the great time we had when we went up to your area, went to that cafe and everything. I forget, what actual town do you live in?

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55 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I really highly doubt 4' as those models always have clown totals in big storms. However that said, I have no doubt your area will come in as the jackpot like often does. The strongest storms seem to hit your area outside the Winter months, and these strong storms which cause lower ratios for most folks pound you in the higher elevations with higher ratios. I was telling my mom about how much snow you are expecting, she still remembers the great time we had when we went up to your area, went to that cafe and everything. I forget, what actual town do you live in?

Not just higher ratios, it wrings out the moisture with added lift as well..   Compare precip totals, not just the difference in snow amounts.  There is a bias in the wrf's to boost the upslope component, but I've noticed when most all hi-res agree on an idea, it usually comes close to fruition. I'm expecting 25-30" with the possibility of higher amounts, especially if you look at how the models arrive at the heavy totals, with an enhanced lake band setting up as the storm departs.

I'm not near a town.  I live in the north part of Ishpeming township but have a Big Bay address and PO box.  I consider "my town" to be Negaunee, even tho It's quite a trek because of having to drive around the 11 mile long Dead River Basin. I can ride the sled to Negaunee in half the time it takes driving, by crossing the frozen basin just north of Negaunee.

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