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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z GFS ...another Gulf Hurricane out in fantasyland time.   What do we do when we run out of the Greek alphabet?

Next year I will keep a journal of every time Tampa Bay was in a future model. I lost count this year very long ago. I have even lost count in the past week.

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This persistent flare-up of deep convection has a clear linear band on the east side of the wave axis. That boundary is southerly. That needs to be closely watched as it would not take much for convergence to develop a low-level vortex. This is clearly going to close off a mid-level vortex within the tiny MCS even if temporary. TCG could happen way before initially expected which would open up a plethora of forecasting possibilities. This would immediately become a long-tracking TC through a favorable Caribbean with very high OHC.

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1 minute ago, cheese007 said:

So with 3 Atlantic majors in October-November for the first time in recorded history, and with more activity likely in the weeks ahead, does anyone still think this season is a "bust?"

Nope. These Greek cyclones have been a whole 'nother season in and of themselves (apart from Laura, Sally and Teddy).

Trend of heavily west-loaded/close-to-land intensification holds with Eta, but it's finally producing the kind of jaw-dropping satellite porn I expected out of this season...in Sept./early Oct. Kinda annoying that the WPAC snuck in Goni first, though.

In the end, forecasts of extreme activity in the Atlantic were spot-on, even though it didn't play out in quite the fashion most observers, experts and amateurs alike, anticipated.
 

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1 hour ago, cheese007 said:

So with 3 Atlantic majors in October-November for the first time in recorded history, and with more activity likely in the weeks ahead, does anyone still think this season is a "bust?"

Even though it's no 2005 or even 1933, this year is easily a top 5 season. Only those years and maybe 1995 edge 2020 out, and with Epsilon, Zeta, and now Eta, is ahead of 2017 for me personally. It could probably pass 1995 depending on how the next 10-15 days play out

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26 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Even though it's no 2005 or even 1933, this year is easily a top 5 season. Only those years and maybe 1995 edge 2020 out, and with Epsilon, Zeta, and now Eta, is ahead of 2017 for me personally. It could probably pass 1995 depending on how the next 10-15 days play out

Well sheesh I mean...what would it have to be to be akin to 2005 then? Lol

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well sheesh I mean...what would it have to be to be akin to 2005 then? Lol

Multiple Cat 5s, multiple sub 900 hurricanes, lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane on record, a cat 5 and high end cat 4 in july, and 4 landfalling majors in the US are the main reasons 2005 still reigns at the top in my mind

 

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Quite a hurricane season, and I'd still watch the Western Caribbean the rest of this month for sure.

Thus far, we've had 28 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. However, there is a high likelihood that Gamma was a hurricane at it's Yucatan landfall, and I wonder if Sally or Zeta reached Category 3 status. If all of that takes place posthumously, we could have 28/13/7. 

I think (similar to 2005 actually) we had a surprisingly lack of long-tracked Cape Verde activity. Laura began from a wave, but it developed later. Teddy was the only true long-tracked Cape Verde hurricane, although Paulette technically counts. I guess I just grew up in the 90s during the days of true long-trackers like Hurricane Georges. 

It looks like if nothing else hits the United States, we had six hurricane landfalls. Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta. Remember though, at one point, Cristobal, Marco, and Beta were all expected to be hurricanes at landfall....so we could've had NINE hurricanes. I think the fact that five of the six were technically Category 1 or 2 does play a role, especially after 2017 had two Category 4 landfalls, and 2018 had a Category 5. Nevertheless, all five storms packed a punch and one was a rare near-Cat 5 Gulf Coast landfall. (Another thing I remember growing up was how much storms usually weakened on approach to the Gulf Coast in the 1990s/2000s).

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So... 2 more upcoming?  One in the Eastern Caribbean and another out in the NE Atlantic toward the Azores?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Eta, located near Florida Bay.

Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system 
located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is showing 
some signs of organization.  This system will likely gradually 
acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week, and a 
tropical or subtropical storm could develop within a few days while 
this system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the 
northeastern Atlantic Ocean. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medum...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, 
where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression could form late this 
week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&& 

Additional information on the central Atlanic low pressure area can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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On 9/28/2020 at 11:59 AM, ldub23 said:

Looks  like we  have  indeed ended the season very  early.

Frame this and put it in the "Weather Forum Posts That Aged Horribly" Hall of Fame right alongside the one he made about September 2017 being quiet.

Speaking of ldub, he hasn't popped into this thread in awhile...

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1 minute ago, Bhs1975 said:

Yeah he got pwned.

There should be a pinned thread at the end of the year and awards given out for posts that aged the worst. Some of the ones from August complaining that the long range GFS not showing development meant 2020 was going to be a dud of a tropical season belong there as well 

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38 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There should be a pinned thread at the end of the year and awards given out for posts that aged the worst. Some of the ones from August complaining that the long range GFS not showing development meant 2020 was going to be a dud of a tropical season belong there as well 

Not tropical related, but I'd imagine that some of the posts from 3/28 and 4/12 aged horribly too..

 

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6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There should be a pinned thread at the end of the year and awards given out for posts that aged the worst. Some of the ones from August complaining that the long range GFS not showing development meant 2020 was going to be a dud of a tropical season belong there as well 

Let him who is without mistakes lead the posting.

We learn a whole lot more from the edge forecasts, as long as they are well articulated, not just plopped on the boards. If they fail miserably, we can learn what  was mistaken. By contrast, we don't learn much from a sort of OK forecast, even if it seems closer to what actually happened.

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47 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Let him who is without mistakes lead the posting.

We learn a whole lot more from the edge forecasts, as long as they are well articulated, not just plopped on the boards. If they fail miserably, we can learn what  was mistaken. By contrast, we don't learn much from a sort of OK forecast, even if it seems closer to what actually happened.

I mean, it's one thing to make a legitimate attempt to forecast and bust, it's another thing to repeatedly make blanket statements based on the fantasy range of the deterministic GFS runs.

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