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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


Windspeed
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5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

May have some fireworks in the Caribbean in early November. That's a lot of supportive 200 hPa divergence and lift incoming thanks to a very convectively supportive MJ phase. We may have a strong close to the season.

 

 

The GFS, GFS-P, and now the EPS are on board with this. Could be two more storms brewing around November 5-7.

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On 10/21/2020 at 9:27 PM, cptcatz said:

The GFS had not been doing the fantasy storm thing at all this season up until last week.  In fact, it was having a really hard time picking up any storms in the long range that actually ended up forming.  I wouldn't count out the first week of November yet.

I thought I remember lots of fantasy storms early this season. Maybe I'm confusing with last year. 

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9 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

I thought I remember lots of fantasy storms early this season. Maybe I'm confusing with last year. 

I remember most GFS runs through the summer being "no tropical development through 384 hours yet again" even while all those sloppy tropical storms kept popping up. 

That being said:

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh354-354.gif

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4 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

@Prospero for you to frame. :lol:

Screenshot_20201025-134457_Chrome.jpg

It is certainly not the first time Tampa Bay has been in a long-rage future model this year. In fact, I've lost count how many times.

I suspect if this develops it will land in western LA.

Still something to watch. It's been a warm muggy day here today. October has been very warm this year.

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Sitting here in Gulfport, Florida right now we are enjoying a very warm (frog strangler) strong thunderstorm that came in from the south in very late October. Usually this time of year it is dry as a bone and the only rain we might be lucky to get is from cold fronts that come through from the north. It has been muggy as heck this week, even taking showers outside to cool off as it has been so hot.

Not a typical year at all, but it IS 2020...

What will the next few weeks bring??

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19 minutes ago, brentrich said:

It's 2020 so anything is possible! Heck we might see a Cat 5 hurricane in November lol

And one that's moving east through the MDR (that 932 mb storm is moving east through the Caribbean on that run)

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The Atlantic Basin has now surpassed 140.9 (96.9 climatological average for date) for the season. 150 is generally considered the benchmark for a hyperactive season. Obviously we're there based on number of storms but passing that mark also quantifies the ACE metric as well. If there ends up being another strong Caribbean hurricane as has been suggested off and on by modeling in the coming week, we'll likely eclipse that mark now. Either way it has been a very busy, even exhausting year.

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Most recent outlook from the NHC...

A large area of disturbed weather moving from the tropical Atlantic 
across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
associated with a pair of tropical waves.  Upper-level winds are 
expected to become more conducive for development of this 
disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical 
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the 
system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

two_atl_5d0 (5).png

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Every six hours various models dance different scenarios around with future development in the Caribbean and GOM. This being 2020, and enduring yet another hot muggy day on October 29 here in Florida, I tend to think we may not be done for the year.

We still have healthy green leaves and fresh blooms on our Frangipani in our backyard that never has leaves past mid-September!

Strange year.

 

 

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[mention=845]Windspeed[/mention] Tri-Cities, TN/VA

Any Zeta effects up there? Was in Blacksburg just a week ago and had dinner with my Uncle and Aunt who live in Kingsport.

Streams are up but nothing too major. Upper NE TN/SW VA faired pretty well. All the high wind remained east of the Blue Ridge or ridges and peaks above 3600 ft. Generally the stronger stuff clipped Chattanooga but shot east through the Carolinas to SE VA. As for rain, here's a clip of the West Prong of the Little Pigeon from Gatlinburg, TN.

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17 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Streams are up but nothing too major. Upper NE TN/SW VA faired pretty well. All the high wind remained east of the Blue Ridge or ridges and peaks above 3600 ft. Generally the stronger stuff clipped Chattanooga but shot east through the Carolinas to SE VA. As for rain, here's a clip of the West Prong of the Little Pigeon from Gatlinburg, TN.

 

That is crazy for this time of year! In the Spring with a warm wet storm and a major snow melt, creeks and rivers often flood in them mountains. Then it's time to white water raft if not too dangerous (New River in WV comes to mind). LOL

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