Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


Windspeed
 Share

Recommended Posts

Yay another weak STD/STS coming soon SE of Bermuda... looks like it will park itself there for a while and not do much

two_atl_5d0.png

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low 
pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda 
have not become significantly better organized over the past 
several hours.  Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical 
depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or 
two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.  Some gradual development of 
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while 
it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western 
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Am not giving up on Caribbean Sea development around the 25th--- possibly now delayed 3-4 days for what appears to be a large named storm near Bermuda developing this coming week ahead. 

Water temp anomaly continues weakly positive in the Caribbean genesis area and northward the se USA coast. Last weeks GFS modeling for that that storm has trended null for that date, but my feeling based on fewer but still strong GEFS 500 MB members, is that something is going to get going there between the 25th-28th. Magnitude unknown and maybe just minor.  

In the meantime: Bermuda-  soon to be named Epsilon, seems to be gaining support for a significant ocean storm in the Atlantic vicinity just E and N of Bermuda. Interaction with the Atlantic ridge seems to be forcing a little more w-nw displacement since we looked 24 hours ago, too far off the coast for direct E coast impact, but swells of 5- 6 feet will probably be (typo corrected 1227P) arriving LI s coast by 23rd-24th. This per 00z-06z weaker GFS-GEFS  model guidance suggestions, from the still seemingly conservative GFS.  WH near Bermuda should be exceeding 12 feet by the 23rd (graphic attached). I have checked Tropical Cyclone Phase (Robert Hart's page) on a number of models excluding the EC... it's modeled warm core.

First I need to know we have a named storm and then monitor ridge adjustment to the north of it's eventual nnw-ne recurve. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-10-18 at 9.22.09 AM.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi!  Adding this 12z/18 intensity forecast graphic. Based solely on this,  my guess is Epsilon would be named by 00z/Tue -20th. ?? I should  be corrected if others see it different.

The only reason to post this intensity forecast is to show a general uptick in the intensity forecast from that which was posted a couple of days ago, and that some of the models swap intensity forecasts. 

I presume others are seeing the return of the Caribbean potential in 12z/18 multi models (excluding the UK/EC which have not posted as of this note). It is still e of FL with an unknown magnitude/track but I think worthy of monitoring.  123P/18

Screen Shot 2020-10-18 at 1.14.13 PM.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/17/2020 at 9:55 AM, the ghost of leroy said:

 

Something something quantity over quality 

 

that said, the derecho is 1000% a worthy opponent. Damage around here wasn’t quite cat 4 level like some media outlets would like to claim but more equivalent to a 90-100kt storm perhaps; in an area that does not have resilience for those kinds of winds

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's not a "media claim." It's based on a 126 MPH measurement at Atkins and a 140 MPH estimate by DVN survey in Cedar Rapids. Granted those are gusts, but you don't really see sustained winds of that magnitude on land in any but perhaps the very strongest hurricanes (think Irma in the Leewards, Dorian in the Bahamas).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

It's not a "media claim." It's based on a 126 MPH measurement at Atkins and a 140 MPH estimate by DVN survey in Cedar Rapids. Granted those are gusts, but you don't really see sustained winds of that magnitude on land in any but perhaps the very strongest hurricanes (think Irma in the Leewards, Dorian in the Bahamas).

To kind of nitpick, the Leewards and the Bahamas are islands that yes, did experience major hurricanes but they're islands that don't have "inland" areas comparable to the Plains of the US.

You're point remains the same though. Big SUSTAINED winds don't really happen inland, anywhere at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Epsilon (eventual): Should be sizable TC...pretty impressive looking 'potential'...still a slight westward displacement in eventual track from 24 hours previous but too far east of the E coast. Swells of 7 feet or higher seem plausible to LI by Friday with much bigger impact on marine seas near Bermuda. Intensity forecasts continue to increase-06z/19 attached. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-10-19 at 6.54.13 AM copy.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 started by NHC this morning.  TC phase for at least two days has been very good on predicting immediate warm core and the intensity to ~TS sometime today.  Intensity guidance has been ramping up. Presume the eventual Epsilon should get down to the the 950s or 960sMB by ~late Friday's beginning of recurvature to the ne.   UK operationals I think so far are the most intense. Going to be a bit rougher on the ocean along the east coast by the end of the week due to long period easterly and eventual southeasterly swells. 

Screen Shot 2020-10-19 at 8.28.09 AM.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah. Given seasonal indicators/ENSO state and SSTs/OHC in the vicinity I thought GFS/GEFS were on point with a hurricane, potentially a Wilma-like beast coming out of the Caribbean. Now...not so much.

understand.jpg

Yeah it's a little perplexing.     GFS was also too weak with Episilon,  and had trouble handling the phase. It was it splitting it into 2 lows for a while.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic several 
hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. 

1. A trough of low pressure, extending from the Yucatan Channel
southeastward into the southwestern Caribbean Sea, is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western 
Caribbean Sea.  Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable 
during the next several days and therefore development of this 
system is not anticipated as it drifts westward during the next few 
days.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Roberts
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...