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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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Good Friday morning everyone, 

 

I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27.  Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to trend recently. If not, then no problem. 00z/16 NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical.   Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 657A/16

 
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Just for fun:  I've finally found the LR GEFS wave and wind forecast site for the Atlantic.

Graphic below is for chance of wave heights above 12 feet around 10/25.  This is accomplished without the 00z/16 OP contribution from (?Zeta? = Cuba-FL vicinity).  Note the sw Atlantic. 

I checked Cyclone Phase Analysis and Forecasting for the Bermuda - Central Atlantic storm of 20-23... its warm core on all models.  To me, that suggests a named storm eventually. Probs slowly coming up on the TWO.   SST may be a little marginal in the initiation area but if it does slip southwest for a while, it may move over more favorable ocean heat.  Also, SST continue a bit above normal se USA coast and e GMEX and anomaly is tending to depart positively a bit there. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-10-16 at 12.48.46 PM.png

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS digs the southern stream a lot more this run.  End result,  a TC phasing with a bomb cyclone.   

 

You better hope that thing stays offshore, 250 miles west and it's  hurricane force winds along almost the entire east coast.

 

DI7Gy5Q.png

N8q01uS.png

Dammmmmmm

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Looks a lot like the output from the Euro 2 weeks ago.   Just a giant elongated wind field.


Euro keeps showing a 2nd system trying to form in the western gulf.   Although no other model is showing second low pressure in the GOM, all of them have lower pressures there than the GFS.

 

NemVrGg.png

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I "think" Epsilon gets named within 48 hours.  Here's some prelim multi-model intensity guidance and EPS tracks. Bermuda area. I think this is the first publicly available non NHC specific ensemble= guidance. Use your best judgement. 

Last I checked today,  Tropical Phase Cyclone guidance suggested warm core symmetric for this. 

Let's see what happens.  No matter, I'm leaving any topic naming on this forum and all the tropical details of intensification/track/broadening coverage to our group participants,  since I'm no tropical expert. I just like that the models have been onto this for quite awhile. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-10-16 at 4.59.45 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-16 at 5.00.16 PM.png

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18z GFS has Caribbean storm landfalling at Jupiter, FL moving just inland of Vero, stalling then moving SW into Gulf.  Change looks due to 2 things: 1) Atlantic storm weak and east. 2) Trough in the plains is not as sharp so storm coming out of Gulf doesn't get pushed out.  Flip Flop continues.  Will be curious to see the ensembles.  Several were showing west movement at 12z and I believe one EPS...will need to see if this is a trend.

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Hi! Been asked a question:  Trying to save a little time... if someone here has an answer, could you reply.  Thank you.

2005?  Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28?  Which is correct?  Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28?

Walt

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4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi! Been asked a question:  Trying to save a little time... if someone here has an answer, could you reply.  Thank you.

2005?  Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28?  Which is correct?  Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28?

Walt

there was an unnamed storm

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Azores_subtropical_storm

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13 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Looking more at the 18z GFS, if that were actually to verify, that would be three straight days of hurricane or tropical storm conditions for me here in Boca Raton. From 06z Sunday to 06z Wednesday. 

And we don’t need any more rain here in the Jupiter area

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