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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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Alright guys let's get back to discussing our possible mega storm 10-15 days out.  06Z GFS-P still showing this monster skirting the east coast.  I think a takeaway from these models is the size of this storm.  A small shift in track can mean impacts to large areas.

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh276-306.gif

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1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Alright guys let's get back to discussing our possible mega storm 10-15 days out.  06Z GFS-P still showing this monster skirting the east coast.  I think a takeaway from these models is the size of this storm.  A small shift in track can mean impacts to large areas.

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh276-306.gif

It doesn't skirt the east coast

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Gotta hand it to the GFS if this system develops in the western Caribbean, it’s been showing it in long range, now medium range for endless runs now

And at the same time if it doesn't develop that would be a massive fail for the GFS.

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Good Wednesday morning... It's now 4 days since the GEFS was signaling two new TC's  in the 17th-26.

 

CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us (Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms.

That said...

Whether a TC-hybrid comes up the E coast ????  timing timing timing with the  primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks.  What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta).  This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th.  The EC has something too,  and in the operational cycle brings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA).  The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain.  SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling).  

00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now...

My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be  defined for another 5 days---?

Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? (I'm also not an expert on the MJO impacts)

I've submitted this for critique on the tropical forum looking for some contrary expertise.  My take for my own use: If I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th.  I don't need to deal with the pitch and roll of a rough sea.  (Did that on  FAMFLOAT with the NWS back in the early 90s and it wasn't a TC--just a winter storm). 1115A/14

 

 

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Models keep trending further south and stronger with whatever subtropical mess forms south of Bermuda.

This is not a good trend if you are rooting for a strong TC.   It will disrupt anything that tries to form in the Caribbean by pulling it north before it has a chance to organize.    It is also in a high shear environment so it has little chance of become a strong TC itself.    

Still plenty of time for this to change though.    

XHcxI0X.png

 

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The last two GFS-P runs are quite interesting.  Both runs take a strong hurricane into the Florida straits and does a zigzag/loop near Cuba/Florida keys with multiple impacts in the same areas.  Any chance this can actually happen?

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12 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

The last two GFS-P runs are quite interesting.  Both runs take a strong hurricane into the Florida straits and does a zigzag/loop near Cuba/Florida keys with multiple impacts in the same areas.  Any chance this can actually happen?

Its the GFS.. rhetorical question?

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