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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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THe GFS and GEFS shifted closer to Florida with the Track. Most of the FL impact members are  980-1005mb which would be a TS or Cat1

JXpagmD.png

 

Also, there is some pretty strong cape to the east of this disturbance.  Likely there's going to be some impressive convective blobs which will complicate the forecast.   

v9KaBbo.png

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Amped said:

THe GFS and GEFS shifted closer to Florida with the Track. Most of the FL impact members are  980-1005mb which would be a TS or Cat1

JXpagmD.png

 

Also, there is some pretty strong cape to the east of this disturbance.  Likely there's going to be some impressive convective blobs which will complicate the forecast.   

v9KaBbo.png

 

 

What does the HWRF say?

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9 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Models are really cool now  on anything  of  interest developing.

Tonight:
............................................

Can anybody find me some model to hug?
Ooh, each morning I get up I die a little
Can barely stand on my feet
(Take a look at yourself) Take a look in the mirror and cry (and cry)
Lord, what you're doing to me (yeah yeah)
I have spent all my years in believing you
But I just can't get no relief, Lord!
Somebody (somebody) ooh somebody (somebody)
Can anybody find me some model to hug?
 
I work hard (he works hard) every day of my life
I work 'til I ache in my bones
At the end (at the end of the day)
I take home my hard earned pay all on my own
I get down (down) on my knees (knees)
And I start to pray
'Til the tears run down from my eyes
Lord, somebody (somebody), ooh somebody
(Please) can anybody find me some model to hug?
...................................
 
OK, yea tomorrow will be another day...
 
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92L is quite convectively active this morning. Good divergence and CAPE associated with this system. Additionally there is already good inflow and convergence notable on visible. Yet the ECMWF is yet to do jack squat with this system during lead time just like a few days ago when it missed with Gamma. We shall see.70a9ad4bd22cd8f7b3b8a23a11e93748.gif

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12Z ECMWF is more aggressive with development now. It does seem like it is missing or at least underestimating initial development this year. 92L may end up developing enough that it tugs on Gamma and pulls that system north eventually as well.

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