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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

I don't think this season shuts down in October the way that 2004 and 2017 did. I think we likely still see one or two major hurricanes.

Watching here in Gulfport Florida. We never get too relaxed this time of year. Granted, it is quiet now and absolutely gorgeous as far as weather. But as the Grateful Dead say, "When life looks like Easy Street, there is danger at your door".

Even so, it does feel like things are over here for us. Kind of hoping, we were very lucky so far for 2020. It has been interesting season (ok maybe trolling Ghost of Leroy), and we felt several storms with gusts in the TS range, a lot of rain at times, mild surges, etc., but all in all very easy season for the central west coast of Florida. We were in five day cones, so we did have moments of excitement. LOL

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12 hours ago, Prospero said:

Watching here in Gulfport Florida. We never get too relaxed this time of year. Granted, it is quiet now and absolutely gorgeous as far as weather. But as the Grateful Dead say, "When life looks like Easy Street, there is danger at your door".

Even so, it does feel like things are over here for us. Kind of hoping, we were very lucky so far for 2020. It has been interesting season (ok maybe trolling Ghost of Leroy), and we felt several storms with gusts in the TS range, a lot of rain at times, mild surges, etc., but all in all very easy season for the central west coast of Florida. We were in five day cones, so we did have moments of excitement. LOL

Same here on the east coast of Florida (Palm Beach County). We were in the cones of Isaias and Laura and actually got a hurricane warning from Isaias, but our worst impacts were from when tropical depression pre-Sally moved through. 

I have a feeling Florida's force field may come down in the next couple weeks...

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Both the GFS op and the parallel are now picking up on TCG in the deep Caribbean to Western Caribbean in the mid-to-long range. The ECMWF shows zilch. However its ensembles are now showing possible development in the WCARIB as well, all roughly within a 100 hr variance. The para is faster than the operational with development and potential TCG.d28095e01e72697c3834f2889143d8c8.jpg&key=9048faa0cad50bd0d188aeff3035cc71b4878fb36f79361f741f03845e275c6ec00d755b45e5138af30989671c3931cb.jpg&key=69182f45e6a1ddb503cd4d4fbe0151aaec8e85b975fdcad982f64e2f464b3d0bcab9343ec1a0260f3ceea99c31ef5df6.jpg&key=07383953c6dc5aa2b388b1fb9ce1dd9bf34929925d51905cdf84e5695cabc99a

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Here comes the first wave that has model support. The GFS15 vs 16(para) have varying solutions. The first wave near the Lesser Antilles is much more vigorously modeled by the GFS to become the intense hurricane. The para wants to throw down the gauntlet on the second wave currently out over the MDR. At any rate, chances are we'll have some sort of W. Caribbean action by next weekend. The ECMWF ensembles are increasing support as well for something developing. We're getting closer to the mid range.

 

 

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SSTs are obviously not going to be an issue in the NW Caribbean. There will be some cold fronts that will cool the N. GOM but the SE GOM should remain quite warm for anything that would/could potentially hook into Southwesterly flow and head across the Florida Peninsula.

Bigger influences will be stacked vs sheared flow, land influences (Yucatan, Cuba) and how intense a hypothetical TC would become prior to entry into the SE GOM.e966fcb0603e3aac809e5f9b9b1649b0.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Amped said:

I think it may eventually end up taking a Charlie like track across Cuba into SW FL.

Oh yea, Charlie, it had us in the cross-hairs in Tampa Bay up to a few hours before landfall. So many people evacuated with a historic traffic jam on the bridges to go to Orlando for safety. Charlie did a surprise hard right at Port Charlotte and mostly missed Tampa Bay. But my friends who went to Orlando had stories of trees falling down in hotel parking lots, power being out, so on.

One person came home to a waterfront home on the intercoastal waterway here and their old dried out Christmas tree from the year before was still sitting on their boat dock.

I was in Sun City Center in southeast Hillsborough County watching shutters and roof tiles fly down the road. I watched for a couple hours, still daylight which seems to be a real treat for us storm geeks.

They have very few trees in that senior community, but driving around the next morning did see a lot of trees down on the main highways and streets. There was a mile long swath on I-75 just north of the Port Charlotte exit where it was obvious the eye wall came through. Wow, it was a Cat 5 if I remember right. Looked more like a wide tornado path came by. Trees snapped off like match sticks.

Francis and Jeanne were both stronger in this area the same year very soon after. What a year.

 

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1. A broad area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean 
Sea in a few days.  Some slow development is possible late this week 
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the 
northwestern Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

two_atl_5d0.png

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7 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS now showing  nothing. Looks  like we  have  indeed ended the season very  early. ACE per storm not at all impressive this season.

As a homeowner in Boca Raton I would love to see the season be over but the reality is that  we are not even into October  yet  and many of these late season home brew storms develop quickly and are not foreseen by the global models. 

Bottom line: You may be right and I certainly hope that you are but it is WAY too early to take any victory laps.

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Would not give up on it this yet. 

The main issues preventing it  from taking off are land interaction and competing centers.

On the plus side there's low shear and a potential stall over the warmest waters in the basin.  Too soon to tell 4 days out.

Edit: It was mostly cynical troll Ldub23 writing it off.   

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The 12z GFSv15 does try to develop the current wave in the ECARIB but gets it too close to the Yucatan Peninsula. It is inland too long and also gets bypassed by the trough. The second wave evolves CAG characteristics further west and breaks off into the EPAC. This is of course a single operational run solution but let's go ahead and cancel the remainder of the season. Trollololo... That being said, let's look at the 12z GFSv16 (para). It develops the first wave much quicker south of Cuba near to Jamaica. It also gains enough latitude to get caught into the southwesterlies associated with the digging trough. This turns the first potential TC, at this point a hurricane into and across the Florida Peninsula. Additionally, the para develops the second ITCZ wave out of convergence off Venezuela and then goes bananas, having a second TC bombing out in the NW Caribbean into the long range. Varying solutions but pretty much the overall theme here continues to be increased chances of TCG somewhere in the NW Caribbean. That hasn't really changed.

I should also add that this morning's ECMWF ensemble continues to show tight clusters of TCG in the NW Caribbean through the medium range as well. Does this guarantee we'll have a WCARIB hurricane? No, but there's not really anything to prove we won't. Likewise, the season isn't dead. We'll revisit that topic in about five more weeks once the next favorable CCKW has passed.

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