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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


Windspeed
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I’m going all in on 90L. Bathtub water, decreasing shear, unstable air mass, and location location location. SW gulf is a hotspot for quick spin ups (orientation of geography?). Given the well organized look seen this morning would not surprise me that any additional increase would lead to formation of a TD by tonight. I think 90L wins the race for “W” and I think it could also become our next hurricane. Going to be a painfully slow mover and since no vortex exists yet models have taken up almost every inch of the western gulf for possible tracks. I personally think a long northward trek into Texas is most likely, but will need a defined coc before we know anything on that front

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m going all in on 90L. Bathtub water, decreasing shear, unstable air mass, and location location location. SW gulf is a hotspot for quick spin ups (orientation of geography?). Given the well organized look seen this morning would not surprise me that any additional increase would lead to formation of a TD by tonight. I think 90L wins the race for “W” and I think it could also become our next hurricane. Going to be a painfully slow mover and since no vortex exists yet models have taken up almost every inch of the western gulf for possible tracks. I personally think a long northward trek into Texas is most likely, but will need a defined coc before we know anything on that front

that would be a real coup for 90L to spin up that quickly and nab Wilfred from the other INVESTs.

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4 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

that would be a real coup for 90L to spin up that quickly and nab Wilfred from the other INVESTs.

At the rate it's developing, I'd say the coup is more than likely xD 98L, despite the odds, still hasn't gotten its act together. 

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Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone!

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Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone!

-Merger EWRC: Laura

-"Moisture Bubble" storms that gave the middle finger to dry air and shear? Everything near the Lesser A.

-"Border crosser": Hanna

-Sub 940mb GoM? Laura

-Bahamas strike: Isaias

Central America strike: Nana

-South Carolina landfall: Bertha

-Laura and Sally knocked out radar towers

-Sally pulled a Harvey with rainfall totals

-17/20 storms have set the earliest date (Arthur, Bertha, and Dolly did not)

 

So yeah, something for everybody except the people who believe ACE should be the only standard (which it should be done away with IMO)

 

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone!

No we haven’t. A season can’t be epic without a sub 915 storm. It’s a rule. 

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6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:
I agree with that. Hopefully we get our cat 5 

Teddy has a shot at Cat 5. It'll be moving over 29°C SSTs tomorrow within a divergent environment. Definitely going to be a Category 4 and most likely a high end one during its life cycle.

Sorry, I only count it if it happens past about 60W. It’s the whole “tree falls in a forest but nobody hears it” principle. 

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Sorry, I only count it if it happens past about 60W. It’s the whole “tree falls in a forest but nobody hears it” principle. 
Well we should have some recon flights during peak since it will eventually be a land threat (Bermuda or possibly NE/NS, etc). You're probably meaning on the ground in situ though. I bet you had no love for Lorenzo.
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7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Well we should have some recon flights during peak since it will eventually be a land threat (Bermuda or possibly NE/NS, etc). You're probably meaning on the ground in situ though. I bet you had no love for Lorenzo. emoji17.png

When I was younger I’d get excited for fishes. I’d even track the EPAC for “science”

Now I just don’t care. AGW is making lots of strong storms so I can be pickier and demand excellence. 

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone!

Except when we had three years in a row with a cat 5 at landfall, anything not being a cat 5 at landfall will be a bust.

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 So yeah, something for everybody except the people who believe ACE should be the only standard (which it should be done away with IMO) 


ACE isn't the only standard though. People who only consider it to be are foolish. Landfalls are critical data. Cost is important data. Number of storms are critical data. However, ACE shouldn't be done away with as it is an important climatological tool for measuring and comparing basins. Also, it's a great data filter for finding the most active seasons. It's no coincidence that seasons with the highest ACE had numerous powerful TCs beyond just having a high total number of TCs. You also usually find some real long-tracking beasts as well.
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6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 


ACE isn't the only standard though. People who only consider it to be are foolish. Landfalls are critical data. Cost is important data. Number of storms are critical data. However, ACE shouldn't be done away with as it is an important climatological tool for measuring and comparing basins. Also, it's a great data filter for finding the most active seasons. It's no coincidence that seasons with the highest ACE had numerous powerful TCs beyond just having a high total number of TCs. You also usually find some real long-tracking beasts as well.

 

ACE is cool until you waste a month tracking hurricane/typhoon Ioke and realize you could have literally been doing anything else with your life. 

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ACE is a useful tool but it certainly doesn’t tell the whole story. We’ve had extremely high ACE years with barely any impacts and low ace years that we’re high impact. It also doesn’t do late blooming storms justice, like Laura. Also, you can have 1 or 2 storms produce basically an entire seasons worth of ace and then have a slow rest of the season. 

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

ACE is a useful tool but it certainly doesn’t tell the whole story. We’ve had extremely high ACE years with barely any impacts and low ace years that we’re high impact. It also doesn’t do late blooming storms justice, like Laura. Also, you can have 1 or 2 storms produce basically an entire seasons worth of ace and then have a slow rest of the season. 

Accumulated IKE/insured losses=seasonal power index from a US-centric perspective. That would be something I could get with. 

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7 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

West Caribbean will be crazy going into October. Florida will be lucky to not see some serious threats with the way this season is going. 

We have the force field going on for most of the peninsula sans Irma :thumbsup: I am curious what Oct brings. GFS long range hints at lowering pressures but it's always there on the 384. 

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34 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

We have the force field going on for most of the peninsula sans Irma :thumbsup: I am curious what Oct brings. GFS long range hints at lowering pressures but it's always there on the 384. 

As usual, there is a stupid amount of heat content in the western Caribbean. FL is due for a repeat of King or a cleaner Wilma. 

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A low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic, 99L, is transitioning more warm core with time. It would of course be fitting for 2020 if a Subtropical Storm grabs the last seasonal name prior to the Greek alphabet. lol... Perhaps 90L can get its act together in short order today and snatch the name away. The race is on...74aadb6f6e659fc10006324269844468.gif&key=b1fd096a9109f029e1664eb9c92c1f1c1a57ffa877990965a23e8e562cf4d2ba

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18 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

A low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic, 99L, is transitioning more warm core with time. It would of course be fitting for 2020 if a Subtropical Storm grabs the last seasonal name prior to the Greek alphabet. lol... Perhaps 90L can get its act together in short order today and snatch the name away. The race is on...74aadb6f6e659fc10006324269844468.gif&key=b1fd096a9109f029e1664eb9c92c1f1c1a57ffa877990965a23e8e562cf4d2ba

Haven’t even looked at this. Judging by that sat shot the race may already be won... 

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18 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said:

No we haven’t. A season can’t be epic without a sub 915 storm. It’s a rule. 

Well, don’t look now but you may just get what you wished for, Teddy is looking like he’s got as good of a shot as any so far to approaching that sort of level in the coming days. 

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Looks like the MJO will transition to a brief suppressive regime next week as an unfavorable CCKW swings across the N. Atlantic Basin. However, that is followed by another enhancing CCKW leading into October. Therefore, things could get quiet briefly following Teddy and the potential GOM system followed by another uptick towards the end of the month. Of course it is important to remember that positive (red) MJO regimes are not as unfavorable during peak weeks as TCG can still occur in the Caribbean, GOM and MDR as overall surface pressures tend to have decreased versus mid-Summer months. Pockets of favorable upper 200 hPa vorticity can still be obtained over random areas, especially with lacking EPAC TC activity. In addition, the MDR has tended to moisten somewhat with a backdown in pressure heights and 700 hPa easterlies. So we could still see something pop up east of the Antilles as well.

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